NFL Week #12 Betting Preview: Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders
Sunday, November 27, 2016, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Oakland Coliseum – Oakland, California
Opening Line: Oakland -4
Current Line: Oakland -3 1/2
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: Raiders -180 / Panthers +160
Current Money Line: Raiders -185 / Panthers +165

The Raiders host the Panthers Sunday.
The Raiders host the Panthers Sunday.

The 8-2 Oakland Raiders would currently have home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Oakland has not made the playoffs since playing in the Super Bowl after the 2002 season. The Raiders lead the AFC West by a game over the 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. The Raiders host the 4-6 Carolina Panthers. Carolina is tied for third in the NFC South two games behind the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers began the season 1-5 but have won three of the last four.

Carolina leads the series 3-2 against Oakland. The Panthers have won the last meetings by identical 17-6 scores in 2008 in Oakland  and 2012 in Charlotte.

Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. The Panthers have home wins over the San Francisco 49ers 46-27, Arizona Cardinals 30-20 and New Orleans Saints 23-20 last Thursday, plus a road win at the Los Angeles Rams 13-10. Carolina has road losses to the Denver Broncos 21-20, Atlanta Falcons 48-33, and New Orleans Saints 41-38, plus home losses to the Minnesota Vikings 22-10, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-14 and Kansas City Chiefs. The Panthers were 3.5 point favorites against the Saints and the total was 52.5. Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS and the total is 5-5 this season.

Oakland is coached by Jack Del Rio. The Raiders have home losses to the Atlanta Falcons 35-28 and Kansas City Chiefs 26-10. Oakland has  home wins over the San Diego Chargers 34-31 and Denver Broncos 30-20. The Raiders have road wins over the New Orleans Saints 35-34, Tennessee Titans 17-10, Baltimore Ravens 28-27, Jacksonville Jaguars 33-16 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-24 in overtime. The Raiders beat the Houston Texans 27-20 Monday in Mexico City. Oakland was a 6.5 point favorite against  Houston and the total was 45.5. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS and the total is 8-2 this season.

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Carolina is being outscored 24.6-24.4 this season. The Panthers are #22 in points allowed. Carolina averages 352 yards per game on offense including 245 passing and 108 rushing yards. On defense, Carolina allows 354 yards per game including 272 passing and 82 rushing yards per game. The Panthers are #26 in pass defense but #2 in rush defense. Carolina is 63/149 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 56/141. The Panthers have forced 30 sacks and allowed 25 this season. Carolina is -5 in turnovers but has scored 3 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 56.5% of his passes for 2,186 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, plus 62 carries for 268 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those are far below the numbers that Newton put up last year when he won the MVP. He missed the game against the Buccaneers with a concussion. Derek Anderson has thrown for 453 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

Running back Jonathan Stewart has 110 carries for 365 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 4 catches. Stewart missed several games due to injury. Fozzy Whitaker has 39 carries for 191 yards, plus 23 catches for 187 yards. Cameron Artis-Payne has 36 carries for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mike Tolbert will also get some carries.

Tight end Greg Olson has 54 catches for 745 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Kelvin Benjamin has 46 catches for 683 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ted Ginn, Jr. has 32 catches for 374 yards and a touchdown, plus 8 carries for 50 rushing yards. Corey Brown has 20 catches for 194 yards and a touchdown. Devin Funchess has 16 catches for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. Nine defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report. Star linebacker Luke Kuechly is out with a concussion.

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Oakland is outscoring teams 27-24 this season. The Raiders are #5 in scoring. Oakland averages 394 yards per game on offense including 276 passing yards and 118 rushing yards. The Raiders are #9 or better in all three categories. On defense, the Raiders allow 394 yards per game including 278 passing and 116 rushing yards per game. Oakland is #24 or worse in all three categories. The Raiders are 55/142 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 47/132. Oakland has forced 15 sacks and has allowed 11 this season. Oakland is +10 in turnovers.

Quarterback Derek Carr has completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,800 yards 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 24 carries for 62 yards. He is an MVP candidate.

Running back Latavius Murray has 101 carries for 426 yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 23 catches for 162 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. DeAndre Washington has 63 carries for 302 yards, plus 13 catches for 72 yards. Jalen Richard has 46 carries for 281 yards and a touchdown, plus 21 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Amari Cooper has 62 catches for 900 yards and 3 touchdowns. Michael Crabtree has 52 catches for 601 yards and six touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Seth Roberts has 26 catches for 283 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Clive Walford has 23 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown. Nine defensive players are on the injury report.

Carolina is 4-1 ATS in week 12, 8-2-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 1-4 after failing to cover and against teams with winning records, 1-4-1 on grass, 1-5 against teams with winning home records, 1-6-1 overall, 1-7 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 1-7-1 after gaining less than 250 total yards, 0-4-1 after a straight up win, 0-5-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, and 0-7-1 in road games.

Oakland is 5-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 4-0 overall and on grass, 4-1 after a cover, 5-2 in November, 4-9 against teams with losing records, 5-13 against teams with losing road records, and 2-7 at home. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

While Oakland would like to stay ahead of the Broncos and Chiefs who play each other Sunday night in Denver, they are in really good shape to make the playoffs. This is virtually a must win game for the Panthers. It might not even be enough with such a dreadful start. The Carolina offense has gotten worse in the last few games while the defense has gotten better. The Panthers can’t get into a shootout with the Raiders, but I don’t know if they can stop Oakland’s high powered offense. I like the Raiders to win at home by pulling away late.

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