NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Saturday, November 27, 2016, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Sports Authority Field at Mile High – Denver, Colorado
Opening Line: Denver -3 1/2
Current Line: Denver -3 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 40 1/2
Current Total: 39 1/2
Opening Money Line: Broncos -175 / Chargers +155
Current Money Line: Broncos -180 / Chargers +160

The Broncos host the rival Chiefs in a key AFC West contest. Both teams are 7-3.
The Broncos host the rival Chiefs in a key AFC West contest. Both teams are 7-3.

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to the rival Denver Broncos Sunday night. Both teams are 7-3 and a game behind the 8-2 Oakland Raiders in the AFC West. All three teams would currently make the playoffs, but there is a lot to be decided. The three teams still play each other four more times including this game.

Kansas City leads the series 57-55. This series dates back to 1960 when both were founding members of the AFL. The teams split the series last year with each winning on the road. Denver won 31-24 in Kansas City and the Chiefs won in Denver 29-13 to snap a seven game losing streak against the Broncos. The two teams will meet in Kansas City on Christmas night.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have road losses at the Houston Texans 19-12 and Pittsburgh Steelers 43-14, plus a home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-17 last week. The loss snapped a five game winning streak for the Chiefs. Kansas City has home wins over the San Diego Chargers 33-27 in overtime, New York Jets 24-3, New Orleans Saints 27-21, and Jacksonville Jaguars 19-14, along with road wins at the Raiders 26-10, Indianapolis Colts 30-14 and Carolina Panthers 20-17. The Chiefs were 7 point favorites against the Buccaneers and the total was 45. Kansas City is 4-6 ATS and the total is 2-8 this season.

Denver is coached by Gary Kubiak. The Broncos lost at home to the Atlanta Falcons 23-16 and have road losses at the San Diego Chargers 21-13 and Oakland Raiders 30-20.  The Broncos have home wins over the Carolina Panthers 21-20, Indianapolis Colts 34-20, Houston Texans 27-9 and San Diego Chargers 27-19. Denver has road wins at the Cincinnati Bengals 29-17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-7 and New Orleans Saints 25-23 two weeks ago. Denver was an 3 point underdog against New Orleans  and the total was 50. Denver is 7-3 ATS and the total is 5-5 this season.

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Kansas City is outscoring teams 22-19 this season. Kansas City is #6 in points allowed. The Chiefs average 334 total yards per game on offense including 236 passing and 98 rushing yards per game. Kansas City is #22 or worse in all three categories. Kansas City allows 374 total yards per game on defense including 253 passing and 121 rushing. Kansas City is #25 in total defense and #27 against the rush. The Chiefs are 53/140 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 67/145. Kansas City has forced 19 sacks and allowed 22 sacks this season. The Chiefs are +13 in turnovers and have scored four defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 67.2% of his passes for 2,077 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has 25 carries for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nick Foles played in a couple of games for an injured Smith. Foles has completed 65.5% of his passes for 410 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. There has been some calls from Kansas City fans and media to replace Smith with Foles full time.

Running back Jamaal Charles is out for the season with a knee injury. He had only 12 carries this season before the injury. Running back Spencer Ware has 132 carries for 641 yards and 2 touchdowns, and also has 22 catches for 340 yards and a touchdown. Charcandrick West has 48 carries for 183 yards, and also has 22 catches for 127 yards. He is probable with a concussion.

Tight end Travis Kelce has 49 catches for 574 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Tyreek Hill has 36 catches for 376 yards and four touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 65 yards. He is questionable with a knee injury. Receiver Jeremy Maclin has 30 catches for 376 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out with a groin injury. Chris Conley has 31 catches for 354 yards. Albert Wilson has 23 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns.   Eleven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Denver is outscoring teams 24-19 this season. The Broncos are #8 in points allowed. Denver averages 325 yards per game on offense including 227 passing and 97 rushing yards. Denver is #23 or worse in all three categories. On defense, Denver allows 318 total yards including 194 passing and 124 rushing yards per game. The Broncos are in the top four in total and pass defense but #29 against the rush. Denver is 56/141 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 57/151. The Broncos have forced 29 sacks and allowed 26 this season. Denver is +5 in turnovers, and the Broncos have three defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Trevor Siemien has completed 60.1% of his passes for 2,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 20 carries for 35 yards. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Rookie Paxton Lynch came in relief for Siemien and started against Atlanta. He has completed 62.7% of his passes for 393 yards with 2 touchdowns and a touchdown, plus 9 carries for 14 yards.

Running back C.J. Anderson has 110 carries for 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. He is out indefinitely with a knee injury. DeVontae Booker has 104 carries for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he also has 17 catches for 119 yards. Look for Kapri Bibbs to get the back-up carries behind Booker.

Receiver DeMaryius Thomas has 55 catches for 678 yards and 5 touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders has 54 catches for 668 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Jordan Norwood has 19 catches for 203 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Virgil Green has 18 catches for 2111 yards. Two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report, along with four defensive players.

Kansas City is 4-0 ATS after  failing to cover, 8-3 in road games, 5-2 in November, 4-9 on grass, 3-8 against teams with winning home records and 0-6 after allowing more than 350 total yards. The road team has covered the last five games in this series and the underdog has covered the last four.

Denver is 7-1-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 6-1-1 at home, 8-2 after allowing more than 250 total yards, 6-2-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 6-2 after a straight up win, 9-3-1 overall, 14-5-1 after a bye week, 5-2 after a cover, 5-2-1 against AFC teams, 7-3-1 on grass, 4-11 at home, and 1-4 against AFC West teams. The under is 7-2-2 in this series recent including 3-0-2 in Denver. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS against the Chiefs recently.

Both of these teams don’t give up a lot of points and the offenses can struggle at times. I like the Broncos to win a low scoring game at home to keep pace with the Raiders.

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