NFL Week #11 Betting Picks: New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 20, 2016, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, California
Opening Line: New England -13
Current Line: New England -13 (+115)
Opening Total: 51 1/2
Current Total: 50 1/2
Opening Money Line: Patriots -650 / 49ers +500
Current Money Line: Patriots -550 / 49ers +425

Patriots vs. 49ers NFL Preview
New England travels to San Francisco Sunday.

The 7-2 New England Patriots travel to the 1-8 San Francisco 49ers Saturday. New England leads the AFC East by 2 games over the Miami Dolphins who are 5-4. The Patriots lost last week at home to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday night to snap a four game winning streak. The 49ers won their opening game at home against the Los Angeles Rams but have lost eight straight games. Only the winless Cleveland Browns have a worse record than San Francisco does.

The 49ers lead the series 8-4 all-time against the Patriots. San Francisco won the last meeting 41-34 in Foxborough in 2012 to snap a three game losing streak to New England.

New England is coached by Bill Belichick. The Patriots lost 16-0 at Buffalo, and 31-24 at home to the Seahawks 31-24 last week. The Seahawks made a game ending goal line stand to preserve the win. The Patriots have road wins at the Arizona Cardinals 23-21, Cleveland Browns 33-13, Pittsburgh Steelers 27-16, and Bills 41-25 two weeks ago. New England has home wins over the Miami Dolphins 31-24, Houston Texans 27-0, and Cincinnati Bengals 35-17. The Patriots were 7.5 point favorites against the Seahawks and the total was 49.5. New England is 7-2 ATS and the total is 4-5.

San Francisco is coached by Chip Kelly. The 49ers opened the season with a home win over the Los Angeles Rams 28-0. Since then, they have lost eight straight games including road losses at the Carolina Panthers 46-27, Seattle Seahawks 37-18, Buffalo Bills 45-16, and Arizona Cardinals 23-20 last week. The 49ers have home losses to the Dallas Cowboys 24-17, Cardinals 33-21, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-17, and New Orleans Saints 41-23. San Francisco was a 13.5 point underdog against Arizona and the total was 46.5. San Francisco is 2-7 ATS and the total is 6-3.

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The Patriots are outscoring opponents 27-18 this season. The Patriots are #6 in scoring and #6 in points allowed. New England averages 381 yards per game on offense including 268 passing and 112 rushing yards. New England is #12 or better in all three categories. The Patriots are allowing 361 yards per game on defense including 260 passing and 101 rushing yards. The Patriots are 60/124 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 53/131. New England has forced 19 sacks and allowed 16 this season. The Patriots are +1 in turnovers.

Tom Brady has completed 72.9% of his passes for 1,635 yards with 12 touchdowns and 1 interception, along with 15 carries for 51 yards since coming back from a four game suspension. He is probable with a quad injury. Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett started in place of Brady during his suspension. Garroppolo has completed 42/60 passes (70%) for 496 yards and 4 touchdowns, and also has 7 carries for 8 yards. Brissett completed 34 of 55 passes for 400 yards and also had 16 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown.

Running back LaGarrette Blount has 182 carries for 678 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus 6 catches for 31 yards. James White will also get some carries but has 33 catches for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dion Lewis is questionable to return from a knee injury.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 25 catches for 540 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out with a chest injury, but some reports say he finished the game against the Seahawks with a punctured lung.  Tight end Martellus Bennett has 38 catches for 504 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Julian Edelman has 48 catches for 457 yards and a touchdown and 9 carries for 39 yards. He is questionable with a foot injury.  Chris Hogan has 19 catches for 391 yards and 2 touchdowns. Danny Amendola has 17 catches for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns. Three defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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San Francisco is being outscored 31-21 this season. The 49ers are last in points allowed and #23 in scoring. The 49ers average 311 yards per game on offense including 191 passing and 120 rushing. The 49ers are #29 in total offense, #30 in passing, and #7 in rushing. San Francisco is allowing 430 total yards per game including 249 passing and 180 rushing yards per game. The 49ers are last in total and rushing defense. San Francisco is 51/140 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 63/135. The 49ers have allowed 16 sacks and forced 21 this season. San Francisco is -3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick took over for an ineffective Blaine Gabbert. Kaepernick has completed 53% of his passes for 938 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and also has 32 catches for 228 yards and a touchdown. Gabbert completed 58% of his passes for 890 yards with 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 39 catches for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Running back Carlos Hyde has 122 carries for 443 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 13 catches for 66 yards. He is probable with a shoulder injury.  Shaun Draughn and DuJuan Harris will also get some carries.

Receiver Jeremy Kerley has 40 catches for 424 yards and 3 touchdown. Tight end Garrett Celek has 16 catches for 215 yards. Torrey Smith has 17 catches for 243 yards and a touchdown. He is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Tight end Vance McDonald has 15 catches for 276 yards and 3 touchdowns. Quinton Patton has 28 catches for 345 yards.  Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report. Linebacker Navarro Bowman tore his Achilles’ and is gone for the season.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in road games, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 5-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, 4-1 after failing to cover and overall, 3-1-1 in week 11, 22-8 after allowing more than 30 points, 5-2 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 39-17 after a straight up loss, 1-5 against teams with losing home records, and 0-3-1 in November.

The 49ers are 4-1 in week 11, 3-7-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 2-5 against teams with winning home records, 2-9-1 against teams with winning records, 1-5 on grass, 1-6 after a straight up loss, 1-7 overall, 1-8-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, and 0-4 at home.

Brady could be without his top three receiving targets and has to travel across the country. It seems like a lot of points, but the 49ers are awful on both sides of the ball. I see Blount having a huge game against the porous 49er run defense. The Patriots pull away in the fourth to cover the huge spread.

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