NFL Betting Picks Week #11: Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, November 20, 2016, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, Washington
Opening Line: Seattle -6
Current Line: Seattle -6 1/2
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 43
Opening Money Line: Seahawks -270 / Eagles +220
Current Money Line: Seahawks -290 / Eagles +245

Seattle hosts Philacdelphia in a key NFC contest.
Seattle hosts Philacdelphia in a key NFC contest.

Thirteen teams in the NFC have either four, five or six wins. It will make for a fascinating race to the playoffs. Two of those teams meet as the 6-2-1 Seattle Seahawks host the 5-4 Philadelphia Eagles. The Seahawks lead the NFC West and have the second best record in the conference behind the 8-1 Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are in last place in the NFC East, as it is the only division where every team has a winning record.

The series is tied 7-7 between the Eagles and Seahawks. Seattle has won four of the last five games against Philadelphia including two straight. The Seahawks won 24-14 in Philadelphia in 2014.

Philadelphia is coached by Doug Pederson in his first season. The Eagles have home wins over the Cleveland Browns 29-10, Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3, Minnesota Vikings 21-10 and Atlanta Falcons 24-15 last week, plus a road win at the Chicago Bears 29-14. Philadelphia has road losses at the Detroit Lions 24-23, Washington Redskins 27-20, Dallas Cowboys 29-23 in overtime and New York Giants 28-23. The Eagles are 5-4 ATS and the total is 5-4. Philadelphia was a 2 point favorite against Atlanta  and the total was 48.5.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. Seattle has road losses at the Los Angeles Rams 9-3 and New Orleans Saints 25-20 last week. The Seahawks have home wins over the Miami Dolphins 12-10, San Francisco 49ers 37-18, Atlanta Falcons 26-24 and Buffalo Bills 31-25, plus road wins at the New York Jets 27-17 and New England Patriots 31-24 last week. Seattle also has a 6-6 tie at the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks were 7.5 point underdogs against the Patriots and the total was 49.5. Seattle is 5-4 ATS and the total is 5-4 this season.

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Philadelphia is outscoring teams 25-18 this season. The Eagles are #10 in scoring and #5 in points allowed. Philadelphia averages 344 total yards per game including 225 passing and 119 rushing yards. The Eagles are #26 in passing and #8 in rushing. The Eagles allow 323 yards per game on defense including 222 passing and 101 rushing yards. Philadelphia is #6 in both total and #7 in pass defense. Philadelphia is 45/128 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/124. The Eagles have forced 25 sacks and allowed 19 this season. Philadelphia is +6 in turnovers.

Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been impressive for the Eagles so far. He has completed 65% of his passes for 2,121 yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and has 46 rushing yards.

Running back Ryan Mathews has 95 carries for 396 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 11 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. Darren Sproles has 61 carries for 304 yards, plus 33 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown. Wendell Smallwood has 44 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown. Kenjon Barner has 20 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Receiver Jordan Matthews has 48 catches for 580 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury. Nelson Agholor has 27 catches for 264 yards and a touchdown. Dorial Green-Beckham has 18 catches for 194 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Zach Ertz has 29 catches for 302 yards. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Tight end Trey Burton has 13 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown. Eight defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Seattle is outscoring teams 21-18 this season. The Seahawks are #2 in points allowed but #21 in scoring. Seattle averages 342 yards per game on offense including 264 passing and 78 rushing yards. The Seahawks are #20 in total offense, #11 in passing, but #30 in rushing.  On defense, the Seahawks are allowing 338 total yards per game including 242 passing and 97 rushing yards. Seattle is in the top ten in all categories. The Seahawks are 42/115 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 60/138. Seattle has forced 19 sacks and allowed 29 this season. The Seahawks are +4 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,442 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 31 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Trevone Boykin has thrown for 65 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Running back Christine Michael has 117 carries for 469 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 20 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. He was surprisingly released this week and signed with the Packers. Thomas Rawls returns from a broken leg. Running back C.J. Prosise and C.J. Spiller will get some carries too.

Receiver Doug Baldwin has 50 catches for 629 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 42 catches for 593 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury.  Tyler Lockett has 21 catches for 286 yards. Jermaine Kearse has 26 catches for 307 yards. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in November and 0-4 in road games. The road team is 7-1 ATS in this series recently.

Seattle is 4-0 ATS in November, 6-1 after scoring more than 30 points, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 20-4-2 after passing for more than 250 yards, 5-2 after gaining more than 350 total yards, and overall, 2-5 after a cover, after allowing 350 yards or more, and against NFC teams, and 0-4-1 against teams with winning road records. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in this series recently. The Seahawks have covered four of the last five against the Eagles.

Seattle has looked very impressive in the last two weeks, as Wilson is getting healthy. The offensive line still struggles in run blocking and pass protection. Still, I like Seattle to win a low scoring game at home.

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