NFL Thursday Night Betting Picks Week#2: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Thursday, September 15, 2016, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Network
New Era Field – Orchard Park, New York
Opening Line: Buffalo -2 1/2
Current Line: New York pick (-115)
Opening Total: 42 1/2
Current Total: 40 1/2
Opening Money Line: Bills -140 / Jets +120
Current Money Line: Jets -106 / Bills -104

The Jets and Bills renew their rivalry Thursday night in Buffalo. Two losses to the Bills last year kept the Jets out of the playoffs last year.
The Jets and Bills renew their rivalry Thursday night in Buffalo. Two losses to the Bills last year kept the Jets out of the playoffs last year.

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills renew their rivalry Thursday night in Buffalo. The Bills lead the series 60-51. Buffalo has won 5 straight games in the series including both games last year by identical 22-17 scores. The last meeting in week 17 last year prevented the Jets from qualifying for the playoffs. It was very sweet revenge for Buffalo coach Rex Ryan who coached the Jets for several seasons before being fired. New York hired Todd Bowles to replace him before last season. The two teams close the season in New Jersey on New Year’s Day.

Both teams are coming off disappointing close losses in week one. The Jets lost at home to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-22. New York was a 1 point favorite and the total was 42. Buffalo lost at the Baltimore Ravens 13-7 last week. The Bills were 3 point underdogs and the total was 44.5.

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New York took a 7-0 lead against Cincinnati midway through the first quarter on a three yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Quincy Enunwa. The Jets intercepted an Andy Dalton pass and took over at the Cincinnati 14 yard line. However, the Jets would have a 22 yard field goal blocked. The Bengals kicked a field goal late in the first to make it 7-3. Cincinnati look a 10-7 lead early in the second. New York scored 9 straight points to lead 16-10. The Jets scored a touchdown on a 15 yard pass from Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker, but missed the extra point. New York would then add a 45 yard field goal. Cincinnati kicked a field goal as time expired to make it 16-13 at halftime.

The Bengals scored a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 20-16. New York kicked field goals of 20 and 23 yards in the fourth quarter to take a 22-20 lead with just over 3 minutes left. However, the Bengals drove down the field and kicked the go ahead field goal from 47 yards with 54 seconds left. Fitzpatrick threw an interception with 40 seconds left to seal the win for the Bengals. The Jets had numerous opportunities to win this game but if you attempt 3 field goals of 23 yards or less you won’t win many NFL games.

New York had 341 yards including 188 passing and 152 rushing. Cincinnati had 381 total yards including 324 passing and 57 rushing yards. New York had 22 first downs to 18 for Cincinnati. The Jets were 4/12 on third and fourth down conversions and the Bengals were 3/11. The Cincinnati had 5 penalties for 44 yards and New York had 7 for 95 yards. New York had possession for 34:53 to 25:07 for Cincinnati.

Fitzpatrick completed 19/35 passes for 189 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interceptions and had 4 carries for 15 yards. Running back Matt Forte had 22 carries for 96 yards and 5 catches for 59 yards. Bilal Powell had 4 carries for 41 yards. Enunwa had 7 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. Enunwa is questionable with bruised ribs.  Decker had 2 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Marshall had 3 catches for 32 yards. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Baltimore kicked a field goal late in the first quarter to take a 3-0 lead. The Ravens expanded the lead to 10-0 early in the second. The Bills pulled to within 3 points with a one yard touchdown run from LeSean McCoy with just over three minutes left in the first half. Buffalo missed a 49 yard field on their first possession of the second half. Baltimore kicked another field goal to make is 13-7 with just over 5 minutes left in the fourth. Buffalo had one more possession but had to punt. The Ravens ran out the clock to seal the game.

Baltimore had 308 total yards to just 160 for Buffalo. The Ravens had 225 passing yards and 83 rushing yards. Buffalo had 95 passing yards and 65 rushing yards. Baltimore had 18 first downs to 11 for Buffalo. The Bills were 5/15 on third and fourth down conversions and the Ravens were 6/16. Buffalo had the only turnover of the game. Baltimore had 6 penalties for 35 yards and Buffalo had 8 for 89. The Ravens had possession for 32:53 to 27:07 for the Bills.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor completed 15/22 passes for 111 yards and had 5 carries for 11 yards. McCoy had 16 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown, plus 4 catches. Receiver Sammy Watkins had 4 catches for 43 yards. He is questionable with soreness in his surgically repaired foot. Charles Clay had 2 catches for 40 yards. Robert Woods had 4 catches for 20 yards. The Bills are ravaged by injuries with 21 players listed on the injury report, including 9 defensive players.

New York is 3-0-2 ATS after rushing for 150 yards or more, 5-1-1 in week two, 3-1-1 against teams with losing records, 6-2-1 against AFC East teams, 5-2-2 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 2-6-1 in September, 1-3-2 in road games, 1-4 after a straight up loss and after failing to cover. The under is 4-1 in this series recently. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series.

Buffalo is 4-0 ATS at home, after rushing for less than 90 yards, and on turf, 4-0-1 against AFC East teams, 7-1 after gaining less than 250 total yards, 8-3 after failing to cover, 14-6 in week two, 9-4 after a straight up loss, 2-5-1 after passing for less than 150 yards, 7-18-1 after allowing less than 15 points, and 7-20 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards. The team is 6-2 ATS in this series recently. The Jets are 0-5 ATS against the Bills overall and 0-4 in Buffalo.

Both teams struggled on offense last week. This could be a low scoring game. Buffalo has had New York’s number recently but I think that changes Thursday. I like the Jets to win a close game.

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