College Football Betting Picks: Iowa State Cyclones at TCU Horned Frogs

Iowa State Cyclones at TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, September 17, 2016, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FS1
Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
Opening Line: TCU -22 1/2
Current Line: TCU -24
Opening Total: 62
Current Total: 61
Opening Money Line: TCU -2300 / Iowa State +700
Current Money Line: TCU -2500 / Iowa State +1400

Big South Tournament
TCU is a 24  point favorite against Iowa State Saturday.

After two weeks, there are only 3 undefeated teams left in the Big 12, Texas, Baylor, and West Virginia. The conference is 5-7 against FBS teams. The 1-1 Texas Christian Horned Frogs host the 0-2 Iowa State Cyclones Saturday in the Big 12 opener for both schools.

TCU leads the series 6-1 against Iowa State including 2-1 in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have won three straight games including 45-21 in Ames last year.

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Iowa State is 0-2 under first year coach Matt Campbell. The Cyclones lost at home to Northern Iowa 25-20 and last week were crushed by CyHawk rival Iowa 42-3 on the road. Iowa State is 0-2 ATS this season and both games have gone under the total. The Cyclones were 15.5 point underdogs against Iowa and the total was 49.

Iowa State is being outscored 34-12 this season. The Cyclones average 299 yards per game on offense including 211 passing and 89 rushing yards. Iowa State allows 401 yards per game on defense including 215 rushing and 186 passing yards. The Cyclones are -4 in turnovers with 5 giveaways. Iowa State averages 81 penalty yards per game and opponents average 50 ypg. Iowa State has forced 6 sacks and allowed 5 this season. The Cyclones are 7/28 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 10/29. ISU is 2-2 scoring in the red zone with a touchdown. Opponents are 8/9 with 7 touchdowns.

Quarterback Joel Lanning has thrown for 342 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has 24 carries for 37 yards. Jacob Park has also taken a few snaps and has thrown for 79 yards, and rushed for 19 yards.

Running back Mike Warren has 19 carries for 58 yards. Receiver Allen Lazard has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown. Trever Ryen has 4 catches for 45 yards. Dondre Daley and Hakeen Butler have each caught touchdown passes. Butler is questionable as is tight end Chase Allen.

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TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. TCU beat South Dakota State 59-41 in the opener but lost to Arkansas last week 41-38 in double overtime. TCU trailed against Arkansas 13-0 at halftime and 20-7 going into the fourth. The Horned Frogs rallied to tie and had the potential game winning 28 yard field goal attempt blocked with 10 seconds left in regulation. Both games were in Fort Worth. TCU is 0-2 ATS and both games have gone over the total. The Horned Frogs were 10.5 point favorites against Arkansas and the total was 57.5.

TCU is outscoring teams 49-41 this season. The Horned Frogs average 617 yards per game on offense including 408 passing and 209 rushing yards. TCU allows 432 total yards on defense including 278 passing and 154 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are -3 in turnovers with 4 giveaways. TCU averages 110 penalty yards per game and opponents average 38 yards per game. The Horned Frogs are 24/35 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 13/30. TCU has forced 5 sacks and allowed 3 this season. The Horned Frogs are 12/15 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns and opponents are 10/11 with 6 touchdowns.

Quarterback Kenny Hill has thrown for 816 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and also leads the Horned Frogs in rushing with 138 yards on 22 carries with 5 touchdowns. The transfer from Texas A&M has found a home in Fort Worth but needs to cut down on the interceptions.

Running back Kyle Hicks has 26 carries for 108 yards and 4 touchdowns and has 12 catches for 129 yards. Derrick Green will also get some carries. Receiver KaVontae Turpin has 14 catches for 188 yards. Taj Williams has 12 catches for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ty Slanina has 9 catches for 87 yards.

Iowa State is 4-1 ATS after passing for less than 170 yards, 4-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 2-6-1 after failing to cover and in road games, and 0-3-1 in September. The under is 3-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

TCU is 9-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 4-1 against teams with losing records, 14-4 at home, 16-5 on grass, 7-3 after failing to cover, 14-6 in Big 12 games, 36-16 against teams with losing road records, 0-4 in September and after passing for more than 280 yards. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS against the Cyclones recently.

TCU has looked sloppy so far. You can get away with that against South Dakota State but you will lose most of the time against even a middle of the pack SEC team if you don’t execute. Iowa State has looked even worse though. The Horned Frogs rebound with a rout at home.

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