Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
Sunday, November 13, 2016, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, Massachusetts
Opening Line: New England -7 1/2
Current Line: New England -8 (+110)
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 49 1/2
Opening Money Line: Patriots -360 / Seahawks +300
Current Money Line: Patriots -320 / Seahawks +260
The 7-1 New England Patriots host the 5-2-1 Seattle Seahawks Sunday. The Patriots lead the AFC East by three games and are tied for the best record in the league with the Dallas Cowboys. Seattle leads the NFC West by two games and have the second best record in the NFC behind the Cowboys thanks in part to a tie with the Arizona Cardinals.
New England leads the series 9-8 against Seattle. The Patriots have won three of the last four games including 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX in Arizona a couple of seasons ago. You might remember that game as Seattle drove all the way inside the New England one and Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson’s pass in the end zone to seal the victory for the Patriots. The Seahawks haven’t played in Foxboro since 2004.
Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. Seattle has road losses at the Los Angeles Rams 9-3 and New Orleans Saints 25-20 last week. The Seahawks have home wins over the Miami Dolphins 12-10, San Francisco 49ers 37-18, Atlanta Falcons 26-24 and Buffalo Bills 31-25 last Monday, plus a road win at the New York Jets 27-17. Seattle also has a 6-6 tie at the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks were 5.5 point favorites against the Bills and the total was 43.5. Seattle is 4-4 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season.
New England is coached by Bill Belichick. The Patriots lost 16-0 at Buffalo, but have won four straight games since quarterback Tom Brady returned from a four game suspension. The Patriots have road wins at the Arizona Cardinals 23-21, Cleveland Browns 33-13, Pittsburgh Steelers 27-16, and Bills 41-25 two weeks ago. New England has home wins over the Miami Dolphins 31-24, Houston Texans 27-0, and Cincinnati Bengals 35-17. The Patriots were 5.5 point favorites against the Bills and the total was 48. New England is 7-1 ATS and the total is 3-5.
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Seattle is outscoring teams 20-17 this season. The Seahawks are #3 in points allowed but #23 in scoring. Seattle averages 332 yards per game on offense including 257 passing and 75 rushing yards. The Seahawks are #26 in total offense, #13 in passing, but #30 in rushing. On defense, the Seahawks are allowing 333 total yards per game including 234 passing and 99 rushing yards. Seattle is in the top twelve in all categories. The Seahawks are 38/103 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 54/127. Seattle has forced 16 sacks and allowed 27 this season. The Seahawks are +2 in turnovers.
Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 66.7% of his passes for 2,094 yards with 7 touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 28 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury. Rookie Trevone Boykin has thrown for 65 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Running back Christine Michael has 112 carries for 447 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 19 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Thomas Rawls is out indefinitely with a shin injury. Running back C.J. Prosise and C.J. Spiller will get some carries too.
Receiver Doug Baldwin has 44 catches for 570 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 38 catches for 545 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Tyler Lockett has 18 catches for 214 yards. Jermaine Kearse has 24 catches for 281 yards. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report.
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The Patriots are outscoring opponents 27-17 this season. The Patriots are #6 in scoring and #2 in points allowed. New England averages 380 yards per game on offense including 264 passing and 116 rushing yards. New England is in the top 10 in all three categories. The Patriots are allowing 354 yards per game on defense including 253 passing and 102 rushing yards. The Patriots are 54/113 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 47/119. New England has forced 17 sacks and allowed 13 this season. The Patriots are +3 in turnovers.
Tom Brady has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,319 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions, along with 10 carries for 44 yards. Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett started in place of Brady during his suspension. Garroppolo has completed 42/60 passes (70%) for 496 yards and 4 touchdowns, and also has 7 carries for 8 yards. Brissett completed 34 of 55 passes for 400 yards and also had 16 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Running back LaGarrette Blount has 161 carries for 609 yards and 9 touchdowns, plus 6 catches for 31 yards. James White will also get some carries but has 29 catches for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dion Lewis is probable to return from a knee injury.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 22 catches for 484 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Martellus Bennett has 31 catches for 402 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a leg injury. Julian Edelman has 41 catches for 358 yards and a touchdown and 9 carries for 39 yards. He is probable with a foot injury. Chris Hogan has 19 catches for 391 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a back injury. Danny Amendola has 16 catches for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns. Malcolm Mitchell is probable with a hamstring injury. Three defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Seattle is 5-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more, in week 10 and after allowing 250 passing yards or more, 4-1 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 6-2-1 against teams with winning home records, 5-2 in November, 2-5 after allowing 350 yards or more, 3-8-1 against teams with winning records, 2-6 after a straight up loss and 1-5 after a cover. The last four games in this series have gone over.
New England is 5-0 ATS after passing for 250 yards or more, 4-0 overall, 8-1-1 after scoring more than 30 points, 5-1 after a win and a cover, 4-1 against teams with winning records, on fieldturf and after a bye week, 16-5 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 21-8-2 at home, 5-2 after allowing 350 total yards or more, 35-17-4 against teams with winning road records, and 1-3-1 in November.
Brady has been on a mission since his return and some people are even saying he should win the league MVP. He has yet to throw an interception. This should be a high scoring game, but I like the Patriots to win a close game at home.
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