NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 17, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
Opening Line: Atlanta -3 (-108)
Current Line: Atlanta -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 54
Opening Money Line: Falcons -145 / Packers +125
Current Money Line: Falcons -145 / Packers +120

The Falcons and Packers open the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium with an NFC Championship game rematch.

Last season, the Atlanta Falcons closed out the Georgia Dome in style with a 44-21 rout over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship. The Falcons open their new home, the beautiful state of the art Mercedes-Benz Stadium against the Packers Sunday night. Green Bay leads the series but Atlanta won both meetings last year at home. Besides the playoff game, the Falcons also beat the Packers 33-32 in the regular season.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers beat the Seattle Seahawks 17-9 in Green Bay last week. Green Bay was a 2.5 point favorite against the Seahawks and the total was 49.5.

Atlanta is coached by Dan Quinn. The Falcons won at the Chicago Bears 23-17. Atlanta was a 6.5 point favorite and the total was 48.

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Neither the Packers or Seahawks scored until Seattle kicked a field goal on the last play of the first half. Green Bay forced a fumble on a strip sack early in the third and  recovered at the Seattle 6. They scored on the next play on a touchdown run from Ty Montgomery to make it 7-3 Packers. The Seahawks kicked another field goal to pull within 7-6. Green Bay made it 14-6 with 17 seconds left on a 32 yard touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson. A Packers field goal made it 17-6. The Seahawks pulled to within 17-9 with just over six minutes left, but neither team would score again. The Packers held on for the ugly win in a defensive struggle.

Green Bay had 370 total yards including 286 passing and 84 rushing yards. Seattle had 225 total yards including 135 passing and 90 rushing yards. The Packers had 26 first downs to 12 for the Seahawks. Green Bay was 9/16 on third downs and Seattle was 3/12. The Packers had 8 penalties for 70 yards and the Seahawks had 8 for 50 yards. Each team had a turnover. Green Bay held the ball for just over 39 minutes.

Rodgers completed 28/42 passes for 311 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, along with 7 carries for 21 rushing yards.

Ty Montgomery had 19 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown, plus 4 catches for 39 yards.

Randall Cobb had 9 catches for 85 yards. Jordy Nelson had 7 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. Davante Adams had 3 catches for 47 yards. Martellus Bennett had 3 catches for 43 yards. Four offensive tackles and seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Atlanta kicked a field goal in the first quarter at Chicago last week to take a 3-0 lead. The Bears tied it up on the first play of the second quarter. Atlanta took a 10-3 lead on a five yard touchdown run from Devonta Freeman with just over four minutes to go in the half. Chicago tied it up with 14 seconds left in the half. Atlanta regained the lead on a third quarter field goal. The Falcons expanded the lead to 20-10 early in the fourth on an 88 yard touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to tight end Austin Hooper. The Bears pulled to within 20-17 midway through the fourth. The Falcons made it 23-17 with a field goal with just over three minutes to go. Chicago took over at their own 18, and drove all the way down to the Atlanta five. However, a sack on fourth down ended any hopes for the Bears as the Falcons ran out the clock.

Atlanta had 372 total yards including 308 passing and 64 rushing yards. Chicago had 301 total yards including 176 passing and 125 rushing yards. The Falcons had 18 first downs and the Bears had 20. Atlanta was 5/11 on third downs, and Chicago was 5/13 on third downs and 1/2 on fourth downs. Atlanta had 8 penalties for 73 yards and Chicago had 4 for 40 yards. Neither team had a turnover. The Falcons held possession for 30:34.

Ryan completed 21/30 passes for 321 yards with a touchdown, plus 3 carries for 11 yards.

Freeman had 12 carries for 37 yards and a touchdown. Tevin Coleman had 8 carries for 16 yards, plus 4 catches for 42 yards.

Austin Hooper had 2 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. Julio Jones had 4 catches for 66 yards. Mohamed Sanu had 6 catches for 47 yards. Taylor Gabriel had 3 catches for 36 yards. Five defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report for the Falcons.

Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in September, 6-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, on grass and after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 5-1 after a straight up win, against teams with winning records, overall and against NFC teams, 4-1 after a cover, and after allowing less than 250 total yards, 3-1-1 in week two, 5-2 against teams with winning home records, 34-16-1 after allowing 15 points or less, and 40-19-1 after rushing for less than 90 yards. The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series and the underdog is 8-3 ATS.

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in week two, 4-1 after failing to cover, and after gaining 350 total yards, 6-2 against NFC teams and on grass, 5-2 in September, and after passing for 250 yards or more, and 9-4 after a straight up win.

This should be a high scoring game, also neither team was spectacular on offense last week. The Falcons ended an eight game winning streak for the Packers in blowout fashion last year in the NFC championship. I think this game will be closer but the Falcons still win and cover.

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