NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Sunday, November, 6, 2016, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Oakland Coliseum – Oakland, California
Opening Line: Denver -2 1/2
Current Line: Oakland Pick
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 43 1/2
Opening Money Line: Broncos -125 / Raiders +105
Current Money Line: Raiders -110 / Broncos +100

The Raiders host the Broncos with first place in the AFC West on the line.
The Raiders host the Broncos with first place in the AFC West on the line.

The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos are 6-2 this season and tied for first place in the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs are also in the mix at 5-2. The Raiders host the Broncos Sunday night in the biggest game in Oakland in years. In fact it is the first time Oakland has hosted a Sunday prime time game since it became the league’s marquee spotlight game.

Oakland leads the series 61-50-2 against Denver. The Raiders won 15-12 last year in Denver to snap an 8 game losing streak to the Broncos. The teams will close the season in Denver New Year’s Day.

Denver is coached by Gary Kubiak. The Broncos lost at home to the Atlanta Falcons 23-16 and at the San Diego Chargers 21-13.  The Broncos have home wins over the Carolina Panthers 21-20, Indianapolis Colts 34-20, Houston Texans 27-9 and San Diego Chargers 27-19 last week. Denver was an 3.5 point favorite against San Diego and the total was 43. Denver won on the road at the Cincinnati Bengals 29-17 and at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-7. Denver is 6-2 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season.

Oakland is coached by Jack Del Rio. The Raiders have home losses to the Atlanta Falcons 35-28 and Kansas City Chiefs 26-10. Oakland has a home win over the San Diego Chargers 34-31. The Raiders have road wins over the New Orleans Saints 35-34, Tennessee Titans 17-10, Baltimore Ravens 28-27, Jacksonville Jaguars 33-16 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-24 in overtime last week. Oakland was a 1 point underdog against  Tampa Bay and the total was 48. The Raiders are 5-3 ATS and the total is 6-2 this season.

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Denver is outscoring teams 24-17 this season. The Broncos are #5 in points allowed. Denver averages 326 yards per game on offense including 222 passing and 105 rushing yards. Denver is #27 in total offense and #27 in passing. On defense, Denver allows 301 total yards including 184 passing and 117 rushing yards per game. The Broncos are in the top three in total and pass defense but #23 against the rush. Denver is 42/110 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 48/128. The Broncos have forced 26 sacks and allowed 18 this season. Denver is +5 in turnovers, and the Broncos have three defensive touchdowns.

Second year quarterback Trevor Siemian has been a pleasant surprise this season. He has completed 61.7% of his passes for 1,487 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has 14 carries for 30 yards. He suffered  a shoulder injury against the Buccaneers and missed the game against the Falcons. He returned in the first game against the Chargers. Rookie Paxton Lynch came in relief for Siemien and started against Atlanta. He has completed 62.7% of his passes for 393 yards with 2 touchdowns and a touchdown, plus 9 carries for 14 yards.

Running back C.J. Anderson has 110 carries for 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. He is out indefinitely with a knee injury. DeVontae Booker has 79 carries for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he also has 14 catches for 99 yards. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Look for Kapri Bibbs to get the back-up carries behind Booker.

Receiver DeMaryius Thomas has 42 catches for 535 yards and 4 touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders has 44 catches for 567 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Jordan Norwood has 14 catches for 129 yards. Tight end Virgil Green has 14 catches for 150 yards. Two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report, along with five defensive players.

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Oakland is outscoring teams 27-25 this season. The Raiders are #6 in scoring. Oakland averages 402 yards per game on offense including 285 passing yards and 117 rushing yards. The Raiders are #8 or better in all three categories. On defense, the Raiders allow 410 yards per game including 285 passing and 125 rushing yards per game. Oakland is #27 or worse in all three categories. The Raiders are 45/110 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/102. Oakland has forced 11 sacks and has allowed 9 this season. Oakland is +7 in turnovers.

Quarterback Derek Carr has completed 66.3% of his passes for 2,321 yards 17 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, plus 17 carries for 61 yards. He is an MVP candidate.

Running back Latavius Murray has 69 carries for 279 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 17 catches for 90 yards. DeAndre Washington has 52 carries for 267 yards, plus 12 catches for 72 yards. Jalen Richard has 35 carries for 217 yards and a touchdown, plus 16 catches for 113 yards.

Receiver Amari Cooper has 52 catches for 787 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury. Michael Crabtree has 47 catches for 569 yards and six touchdowns. He is probable with leg injury. Seth Roberts has 22 catches for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Clive Walford has 19 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown. Five offensive linemen and six defensive players are on the injury report.

Denver is 7-1-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 6-1-1 after a straight up win, 5-1 after a cover, 5-1-1 against AFC teams, 4-1 in road games, 8-2-1 overall, 7-2-1 on grass, 6-2-1 against teams with winning records, and 9-4 against AFC West, and 2-5 in week 9. The road team is 18-7-1 ATS in this series recently. The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in this series including 5-0 in Oakland.

Oakland is 4-1 ATS after accumulating more than 350 total yards, 9-4 against AFC teams, 8-17-1 after a straight up win, 3-7 against AFC West teams, 4-10 in week 9, 9-23-1 after a cover, 2-6 after accumulating more than 250  yards, and 0-7 at home. The favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

The crowd will be frenzied in the Black Hole but it always is when the hated Broncos come to town. I think the Denver defense will slow down the Oakland offense just enough to pull out a close game.

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