NFL Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, Washington
Monday, November 7, 2016, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Seattle -6 1/2
Current Line: Seattle -7 (+100)
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 44
Opening Money Line: Seahawks -300 / Bills +250
Current Money Line: Seahawks -290 / Bills +245

The Seahawks are 7 point favorites against the Bills Monday.
The Seahawks are 7 point favorites against the Bills Monday.

The 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks host the 4-4 Buffalo Bills Monday night. Seattle leads the NFC West over the 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is the only other team in the NFC besides the 7-1 Dallas Cowboys with less than 3 losses. Buffalo is tied with the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East behind the 7-1 New England Patriots.

Seattle leads the series 7-5 against Buffalo. The Seahawks won the last meeting 50-17 in Toronto in 2012. The last three games in this series have been decided by 24 points or more. Buffalo is playing in Seattle for the first time since 2004.

Buffalo is coached by Rex Ryan. The Bills have road losses at the Baltimore Ravens 13-7 and Dolphins 28-25, plus home losses to the New York Jets 37-31 and Patriots 41-25 last week. Buffalo lost the first two games of the season, won four in a row, and has lost two games in a row. The Bills have home wins over the Arizona Cardinals 33-18 and San Francisco 49ers 45-16, plus road wins over the Patriots 16-0 and Los Angeles Rams 30-19. Buffalo was a 5.5 point underdog against New England and the total was 48. The Bills are 4-4 ATS and the total is 6-2 this season.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. Seattle has road losses at the Los Angeles Rams 9-3 and New Orleans Saints 25-20 last week. The Seahawks have home wins over the Miami Dolphins 12-10, San Francisco 49ers 37-18 and Atlanta Falcons 26-24 , plus a road win at the New York Jets 27-17. Seattle also has a 6-6 tie at the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks were 1 point favorites against the Saints and the total was 50. Seattle is 3-4 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season.

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Buffalo is outscoring teams 27-22 this season. The Bills are #8 in scoring. Buffalo averages 334 total yards per game including 179 passing and 154 rushing yards. The Bills are #25 in total offense, last in passing and #2 in rushing. On defense, Buffalo is allowing 360 total yards per game, including 242 passing and 118 rushing yards. The Bills are #25 in rush defense. Buffalo is 41/110 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/114. The Bills have forced 26 sacks and have allowed 19 this season. Buffalo is +8 in turnovers with three defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has completed 58.7% of his passes for 1,480 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 46 carries for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. E.J. Manuel has also taken a few snaps.

Running back LeSean McCoy has 112 carries for 598 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 20 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Mike Gillislee has 34 carries for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. Reggie bush is questionable with a groin injury.

Receiver Robert Woods has 29 catches for 290 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a foot injury. Tight end Charles Clay has 26 catches for 274 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Marquise Goodwin has 12 catches for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion. Walter Powell has 12 catches for 132 yards. Receivers Brandon Tate, Kolby Listenbee and Marcus Easley are all questionable. Sammy Watkins is out until at least week 12 with a foot injury. The Bills signed retired receiver Percy Harvin this week, who also spent several seasons with the Seahawks. Seven defensive players and three offensive linemen are all listed on the injury report.

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Seattle is outscoring teams 19-16 this season. The Seahawks are #1 in points allowed but #28 in scoring. Seattle averages 340 yards per game on offense including 258 passing and 81 rushing yards. The Seahawks are #13 in passing, but #29 in rushing.  On defense, the Seahawks are allowing 319 total yards per game including 230 passing and 90 rushing yards. Seattle is in the top ten in all categories. The Seahawks are 36/96 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 42/109. Seattle has forced 12 sacks and allowed 22 this season. The Seahawks are +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 65.6% of his passes for 1,812 yards with 5 touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 25 carries for 44 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Rookie Trevone Boykin has thrown for 65 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Running back Christine Michael has 107 carries for 446 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 19 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Thomas Rawls is out indefinitely with a shin injury. Running back C.J. Prosise and C.J. Spiller will get some carries too.

Receiver Doug Baldwin has 38 catches for 481 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 30 catches for 442 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury.  Tyler Lockett has 17 catches for 197 yards. Jermaine Kearse has 22 catches for 245 yards. Eleven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS on fieldturf, 5-1-1 against teams with winning records, 4-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards, after allowing more than 30 points and allowing more than 250 passing yards, 4-1-1 in November, 3-1-1 in Monday games, 6-2-1 against teams with winning home records, 2-5-1 after gaining 350 total yards or more, and in road games, 8-21 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, and 1-4-1 in week 9, and 1-10 after a double digit home loss. The Bills are 4-1 ATS against the Seahawks recently.

Seattle is 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 20-5-2 after passing for more than 250 yards, 4-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 7-2-1 in Monday games, 2-5 after allowing more than 350 total yards, and on fieldturf. The last 8 games in this series have gone over the total, including the last four in Seattle.

Seattle has won ten straight Monday night games, while Buffalo has lost five straight games on Monday night. Both of these teams need a win. Russell Wilson is not healthy and probably should take a few weeks off to heal, but he is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league. I think this will be a low scoring game, but I like the Seahawks to win at home.

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