NFL Picks ATS: Arizona Cardinals at Saint Louis Rams

Andre Ellington-cardinals-2015AZ-STL
Time: NOON
Spread: ARI -6.5
Total: 50

Betting odds c/o Pincle

The Arizona Cardinals are 9-2 on the season and 4-1 on the road this year, and it will take its game to Saint Louis to face the Rams as 6.5-point favorites according to NFL oddsmakers at Pincle. The over/under for the game is set at 50.

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The Cardinals have won four straight since losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last week it disposed of the 49ers by a count of 19-13. Carson Palmer threw 24 of 40 for 271 yards but did not record a TD (nor a pick). Larry Fitzgerald (ankle, probable) tied the team in catches with 10 for 66 yards, but it was John Brown who led in yardage with 99 yards on just five catches. He was targeted just seven times in the game.

Fitzgerald leads the team in catches (83), reception yardage (992) and has seven of the team’s 27 reception TDs. Brown is No. 2 in catches (45) and yardage (704), and also ranks third in receiving TDs with four. Michael Floyd is in his fourth season and has 28 catches for 446 yards with five TDs.

The Cardinals are a dangerous team in the air.

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On the ground, the Cardinals have benefited from the resurgence of Chris Johnson. The once-considered-washed RB has ran for 814 yards on 196 attempts (4.2 yards per carry) and has three TDs on the season. Johnson is on the IR with a tibia injury but could be ready for the postseason.

No. 2 back Andre Ellington has rushed for three TDs as well with a 6.9 yard per carry average on the season. Arizona might not be super dangerous in its backfield, but it provides ample production for Palmer to do his thing and hit open targets.

The Rams are 4-7 on the year and have now dropped four straight since beginning the season 4-3. Last week it was stomped 31-7 by the Cincinnati Bengals. QB Nick Foles struggled with picks, throwing three.

Tavon Austin had four carries for 63 yards and scored the lone Rams’ TD. WR Kenny Britt caught six passes for 63 yards and Jared Cook caught four for 58 yards. Foles has thrown more INTs (9) than TDs (7) this season and has a passer rating of just 72.0. He has 1,906 yards on the season but just a 57.9 percent completion ratio.

Britt has caught a team-high 404 yards but has just one TD on the year, while dual-featured back Tavon Austin is second in yardage (379) while also rushing for 9.2 yards per carry on his 33 attempts this season. Austin is in his third season out of West Virginia. Austin had 96 total yards last week but just 21 and 23 respectively in the weeks prior. Getting him involved could be what saves this game for the Rams, but expect Arizona to prevail as NFL oddsmakers have wagered.

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ATS TRENDS

Arizona
  • Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
  • Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cardinals are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 17-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cardinals are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 vs. NFC.
  • Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 13.
  • Cardinals are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win.
  • Cardinals are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.
  • Cardinals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
St. Louis
  • Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 13.
  • Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
  • Rams are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
  • Rams are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
  • Rams are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Rams are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

OU TRENDS

Arizona
  • Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. NFC.
  • Under is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 13.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games following a S.U. win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 9-3 in Cardinals last 12 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 road games.
  • Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games on turf.
  • Over is 43-21 in Cardinals last 64 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
St. Louis
  • Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games overall.
  • Under is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games in Week 13.
  • Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
  • Over is 17-7 in Rams last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 34-16-1 in Rams last 51 games in December.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.
  • Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
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