We talked about turnover differential in our last article in handicapping season win totals.  The premise is that luck tends to inflate and deflate a teams win over a course of a season.  Normally teams that had positive turnover differential one season tend to not be so lucky the next time around and vice versa.  We are looking to buck that trend again this season.  Once again here is that turnover table from last year.

Here is a list of teams and their turnover differentials in the 2009 NFL Season:

		Takeaways			Turnovers
TEAM	DIFF	FUM	INT	TOT	FUM	INT	TOT
Green Bay Packers	+24	10	30	40	8	8	16
Philadelphia Eagles	+15	13	25	38	10	13	23
New Orleans Saints	+11	13	26	39	16	12	28
Baltimore Ravens	+10	10	22	32	9	13	22
San Francisco 49ers	+9	15	18	33	10	14	24
San Diego Chargers	+8	11	14	25	7	10	17
Denver Broncos	+7	13	17	30	10	13	23
Carolina Panthers	+6	15	22	37	11	20	31
Minnesota Vikings	+6	13	11	24	11	7	18
New England Patriots	+6	10	18	28	9	13	22
Atlanta Falcons	+3	13	15	28	8	17	25
Buffalo Bills	+3	5	28	33	11	19	30
Dallas Cowboys	+2	10	11	21	10	9	19
Indianapolis Colts	+2	10	16	26	5	19	24
Jacksonville Jaguars	+2	10	15	25	13	10	23
Kansas City Chiefs	+1	13	15	28	10	17	27
New York Jets	+1	14	17	31	9	21	30
Cincinnati Bengals	0	6	19	25	12	13	25
Houston Texans	-1	13	14	27	11	17	28
Pittsburgh Steelers	-3	10	12	22	11	14	25
Tennessee Titans	-4	7	20	27	16	15	31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-5	10	19	29	5	29	34
Chicago Bears	-6	15	13	28	7	27	34
Arizona Cardinals	-7	8	21	29	18	18	36
New York Giants	-7	11	13	24	17	14	31
Miami Dolphins	-8	6	15	21	10	19	29
Seattle Seahawks	-8	10	13	23	12	19	31
Washington Redskins	-11	6	11	17	12	16	28
Cleveland Browns	-12	9	10	19	13	18	31
Oakland Raiders	-13	12	8	20	15	18	33
St. Louis Rams	-13	12	8	20	12	21	33
Detroit Lions	-18	14	9	23	9	32	41

 
The Packers created a +24 turnover differential. This number will most likely decrease in the 2010 season, but their high total of interceptions indicates that it most likely won’t be an extreme drop-off.  Still with that being we will be looking to go under the total of Packers seasons wins at this point.

The 49ers, on the other hand, had a positive turnover differential mostly based on the number of fumbles forced and recovered vs. fumbles lost. While their +9 differential isn’t extremely high to start with, expect it to drop a little more, based on luck on fumble recoveries. There are other factors to consider when looking at the 49ers though, and the shakeups in their division should help them finish over their total that is set at 8.5.

The Redskins should improve on their turnover differential drastically. They forced and recovered only six fumbles, while losing possession on a fumble 12 times. This should turn around in the 2010 season. Add to that their new quarterback, Donovan McNabb, who should throw less interceptions and the Redskins are a great pick to finish over their projected win total of 7.5.

The Lions should improve drastically as well. They coughed up 14 fumbles, while only taking away nine. A more stable situation at quarterback with a promising Matthew Stafford in his second season should take care of some of the interceptions as well.

It is still early in the preparation for the 2010 NFL season. A lot can happen and there are other factors that play into a team’s chances to finish over the projected total. Key injuries can change everything, and you need to take many factors into account when betting on a team’s season win total, but the previous season’s turnover differential with a special look at the fumble category is a good starting point.