NFL Betting Preview Week Six: San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday, October 18, 2015, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Green Bay -9 1/2
Current Line: Green Bay -10 1/2
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Packers -500 / Chargers +400
Current Money Line: Packers -515 / Chargers +435

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Green Bay is a double digit favorite at home against San Diego Sunday.

The 5-0 Green Bay Packers are one of five undefeated teams in the NFL and they host the 2-3 San Diego Chargers in a week six contest Sunday. The Packers lead the NFC North over the 2-2 Minnesota Vikings. San Diego is tied with the Oakland Raiders in the AFC West. Both teams trail the 5-0 Denver Broncos.

Green Bay leads the series 9-1 all-time against San Diego. The Chargers only win came in 1984 at Lambeau. The Packers have won six straight games against the Chargers including 45-38 in San Diego in 2011, the last time these teams played.

San Diego is coached by Mike McCoy. The Chargers have home wins over the Detroit Lions 33-28 and Cleveland Browns 30-27. San Diego has road losses at the Cincinnati Bengals 24-19 and Minnesota Vikings 31-14, along with a home loss last Monday against the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-20.

San Diego was a 4 point favorite against Pittsburgh and the total was 45.5. The Chargers took a 7-3 lead into halftime. Pittsburgh took a 10-7 lead late in the third on a 70 yard pick six. The Chargers scored 10 straight points to take a 17-10 lead midway through the fourth. Pittsburgh tied it up, but San Diego kicked a field goal with 2:56 left to take a 20-17 lead.

The Chargers kicked off into the end zone for a touchback. However, the clock started running and 18 seconds ran off the clock, which was not supposed . None of the officials or timekeepers noticed the error. Regardless, Pittsburgh drove 80 yards down the field and had first and goal at the one after an unnecessary roughness penalty. There were only 5 seconds left and Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin decided to go for the touchdown instead of the field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. The Steelers snapped the ball directly to running back Le’Veon Bell and he barely got into the end zone for the game winning touchdown as time expired. San Diego is 1-4 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers have home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 27-17, Kansas City Chiefs 38-28 and last week against the St. Louis Rams 24-10, along with road wins at the Chicago Bears 31-23 and San Francisco 49ers 17-3.

Green Bay was an 8.5 point favorite against St. Louis and the total was 45. The Packers took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter including a 45 yard pick six. The Rams would pull to within 14-10 at halftime. The Packers scored the only 10 points of the second half. The two teams combined for 7 turnovers. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

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San Diego is being outscored 27-23 this season. The Chargers are #23 in points allowed. San Diego averages 410 total yards including 318 passing and 92 rushing yards. The Chargers are #2 in passing and #3 in total offense, but #25 in rushing. On defense, San Diego is allowing 351 total yards per game including 219 passing and 132 rushing yards. The Chargers are #9 in pass defense but #29 in rush defense. San Diego is 25/65 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 19/56. The Chargers have forced 14 sacks and allowed 8 this season. San Diego is -3 in turnovers and has allowed 3 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Philip Rivers has completed 71.3% of his passes for 1,613 yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Back-up Kellen Clemens has completed 5 of 6 passes for 63 yards with a touchdown.

Running back Melvin Gordon has 71 carries for 270 yards, along with 13 catches for 86 yards. Danny Woodhead has 37 carries for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 21 catches for 269 yards. Branden Oliver will also get some carries.

Receiver Keenan Allen has 39 catches for 443 yards and 3 touchdowns. Stevie Johnson has 18 catches for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Ladarius Green has 19 catches for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns. Malcom Floyd has 11 catches for 215 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Jacoby Jones is probable with an ankle injury. Tight end Antonio Gates made his season debut last week after serving a four game suspension. He had 9 catches for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Four defensive players and six offensive linemen are on the injury report.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 27-16 this season. The Packers are #5 or better in both categories. Green Bay is averaging 363 yards per game on offense including 237 passing and 126 rushing yards. The Packers are #9 in rushing and #10 in total offense. On defense, the Packers are allowing 316 yards per game including 186 passing and 130 rushing yards. Green Bay is #7 or better in total and  pass defense, but #28 in rush defense. The Packers are 26/65 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 30/74. Green Bay has forced 20 sacks and has allowed 8 this season. The Packers are +5 in turnovers with a defensive touchdown.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 70.6% of his passes for 1,236 yards along with 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 27 carries for 146 yards. Last week, against the Rams Rodgers threw his first interception at Lambeau since the 2012 season.

Running back Eddie Lacy has 63 carries for 257 yards and a touchdown, plus 7 catches for 66 yards. James Starks has 53 carries for 174 yards along with 10 catches for 70 yards.

Receiver Randall Cobb has 28 catches for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns. James Jones has 12 catches for 219 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Davante Adams has 9 catches for 92 yards. He is doubtful with an ankle injury. Tight end Richard Rodgers  has 19 catches for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 13 catches for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report.

San Diego is 8-3 ATS against teams with winning home records, 2-6 after a straight up loss and in road games, 1-4 in week six, 3-13 overall, 2-9 after an ATS loss, 1-5 after rushing for less than 90 yards, and gaining more than 350 total yards, 2-11 on grass, 0-4 against teams with winning records, and after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 0-5 in October, and after passing for 250 yards or more. Four of the last five games in this series have gone over the total.

Green Bay is 6-0 ATS after a straight up win, overall and after allowing less than 15 points, 5-0 after a cover, 4-0 in week six, 4-0-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 3-1-1 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 20-8 in October, 42-17-1 on grass, 35-15-2 at home and 2-5 against teams with losing road records. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. The Packers have covered the last five games against the Chargers.

The Packers have struggled somewhat on offense. Still, they are almost unbeatable at home. The Chargers have to travel across the country after playing on Monday night at home. I like the Packers to win this game comfortably in a low scoring game.

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