NFL Betting Picks Week Three: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 25, 2016, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Missouri
Opening Line: Kansas City -3 1/2
Current Line: Kansas City -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 43 (over -115)
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -145 / Jets +125
Current Money Line: Chiefs -160 / Jets +140

The Chiefs host the Jets Sunday in a key early season AFC clash.
The Chiefs host the Jets Sunday in a key early season AFC clash.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the New York Jets Sunday in a key early season AFC match-up. Both teams are 1-1. The series is tied 18-18-1. The Chiefs won the last meeting at home 24-10 in 2014 to snap a three game losing streak against the Jets.

New York is coached by Todd Bowles. The Jets lost at home to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-22 in week one but rebounded with a thrilling shootout win at the Buffalo Bills 37-31 last Thursday night. The Jets led 20-10 at halftime,  but Buffalo took a 24-20 lead midway through the third. New York scored 17 straight points to regain control of the game, before Buffalo scored a late meaningless touchdown. Buffalo was a 1 point favorite and the total was 40.5. The Jets are 1-1 ATS and the over is 2-0 this season.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to defeat the San Diego Chargers 33-27 in overtime at home in week one. Kansas City lost last week at the Houston Texans 19-12. Houston led 13-3 at halftime and the teams combined for five fourth quarter field goals. The Chiefs were a one point favorite and the total was 41.5. Kansas City is 0-2 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

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New York is out scoring teams 30-27 this season. The Jets average 417 yards per game including 279 passing and 138 rushing yards. The Jets are in the top ten in all offensive categories. On defense, the Jets allow 387 total yards per game including 316 passing and 72 rushing yards. New York is #27 against the pass but #5 in rush defense. The Jets are 12/25 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 7/23. New York has forced 7 sacks and allowed 2 this season. The Jets are even in turnovers.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 62.3% of his passes for 563 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, and also has 9 carries for 36 yards.

Running back Matt Forte has 52 carries for 196 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 7 catches for 68 yards. That is a lot of touches for a 31 year old running back. He is probable with a knee injury. Bilal Powell will also get a few carries and catches.

Receiver Eric Decker has 8 catches for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probably with a shoulder injury. Quincy Enunwa has 13 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with injured ribs.  Brandon Marshall has 9 catches for 133 yards. He is questionable with a knee injury. Besides the running backs, Jalin Marshall is the only other receiver/tight end who has caught a pass this season. Eight defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Kansas City is scoring 22.5 points a game and allowing 23. The Chiefs average 352 total yards per game on offense including 251 passing and 101 rushing yards per game. Kansas City allows 370 total yards per game on defense including 244 passing and 126 rushing. Kansas City is #30 in rush defense. The Chiefs are 10/30 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 12/31. Kansas City has forced 3 sacks and allowed 7 sacks this season. The Chiefs are -2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 63.5% of his passes for 549 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception, and has 6 carries for 17 yards and a touchdown.

Running back Jamaal Charles will miss his third straight game with a knee injury. Running back Spencer Ware has 21 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown, and also leads the Chiefs in receiving with 9 catches for 177 yards. Charcandrick West has 9 carries for 60 yards, and also has 7 catches for 26 yards.

Receiver Jeremy Maclin has 11 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Travis Kelce has 11 catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. Six defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

New York is 4-0-2 ATS after scoring more than 30 points, 3-0-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 7-2-2 after a cover, 3-1-1 after a straight up win, and after passing for more than 250 yards, 6-2-2 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 5-2-1 overall, and 2-5 after allowing more than 30 points.

Kansas City is 7-0 ATS after scoring less than 15 points, 5-1 in week #3, 7-2 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 1-4 after a straight up loss, 1-5 overall, on grass, and against AFC teams, 1-6 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 0-4 at home and in September. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS against the Jets recently.

Despite the offensive explosion last week from the Jets last week, I think this could be a low scoring game. The Jets are banged up at receiver. I think Kansas City wins a close game at home.

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