Florida State at Boston College
Time: 11 AM CST
Spread: BC -2.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The short end of the Willie Taggart era came to its end after the 4-5 Florida State Seminoles fired its head coach on the heels of an embarrassing 10-27 loss to in-state rival Miami. The Seminoles take to the road this week, and it finds itself 2.5-point underdogs at conference rival Boston College. The over/under is set at 62 total points according to NCAA football oddsmakers, and the game will kick off at 11 AM (CST) on the ACC Network.
The Seminoles have had little go right for itself this season. Florida State has dropped three of its last four, with losses to Clemson, Wake Forest and Miami. All but Miami are ranked. The Seminoles managed a 35-17 win over Syracuse two weeks ago. Florida State has had, if nothing else, a strong pass offense this year. It ranks No. 37 at 265.4 yards per game, but it rushes for just 127.8 (No. 108). The Seminoles score 27.2 per game, but it also surrenders 28.8, and the -1.6 point differential is befitting of its sub .500 record.
Seminoles quarterback James Blackman has fared fairly well. He has thrown for just 1,353 yards, but he has averaged a 64.1 percent completion ratio with his 11 TDs and six interceptions. 15 sacks have been costly, but Alex Hornibrook has been far worse with his 20 in far fewer snaps. Hornibrook has 986 yards on the year at 68.9 percent, with seven TDs and two picks.
The Seminoles have got the most out of No. 1 WR Tamorrion Terry whose 33 catches for 646 yards lead the team, while he also leads the team with six receiving touchdowns.
The backfield has been mostly the production of one running back: Cam Akers. He has rushed for nearly 1,000 yards on his 196 carries with 12 of the team’s 15 rushing touchdowns. Both Blackman and Hornibrook have done horribly with their rush attempts, and Florida State as a team averages just 3.4 yards-per-attempt. Kicker Ricky Aguayo has hit all 25 of his extra points, but he is just 5 of 10 on field goals, with all four misses coming beyond 40-yards.
The Boston College Eagles is 5-4 on the season and currently in fourth place in the ACC. BC has won two of its last three, with wins over NC State and Syracuse and a loss to then-No. 4 Clemson two weeks ago. The Eagles rank just No. 101 in passing yards at 198.7 per game, but it has one of the best rush offenses in the nation. The Eagles average 282.3 yards per game via the rush, which ranks it No. 5 nationally. Its offense scores 34.1 per game, but the defense has not been outstanding in giving up 31.4.
The +2.7 point differential does not feel like the accomplishment it should for a team typically under .500 most seasons. Perhaps that is something of a sign of greed, but the Eagles count itself fortunate to finally feel like a competitive football team again. It is not often favored over the Seminoles, after all.
The Eagles loaded backfield is really the work of mostly its top two running backs. While Boston College has seven players with at least 14 carries on the season, AJ Dillon and David Bailey have 339 of the team’s 464 rush attempts. Dillon averages 5.5 yards-per-carry, and Bailey is good for 6.5 yards-per-carry. Wide receiver Zay Flowers ranks No. 4 in attempts (22) and No. 3 in yardage (192) and he has rushed for one touchdown. Dillon has 13 and Bailey has six. The Eagles have 23 rushing TDs on the year.
BC’s top-three receivers all have 17 catches or more and 300-plus yards on the season. The Top passing target is Tight end Hunter Long, who leads the team in receptions (21) and yardage (411). He has not been a red-zone target much with just one TD catch, but backup tight end Korab Idrizi leads the team with four TD catches, though he has just 11 catches for 127 yards on the season.