ACC Football Picks ATS: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers

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Ga Tech at Virginia

Time: 11:30 AM CST

Spread: VA -16.5

Total: 44.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Virginia Cavaliers is 6-3 and in first-place of the ACC Coastal division. It will host visiting Georgia Tech as 16.5-point favorites in NCAA football odds. The game kicks off at 11:30 AM (CST) Saturday, with its over-under set at 44.5 points according to bookmaker 5dimes.

UVA

Virginia has won two of its last three, with wins over Duke and North Carolina, and a loss between those contests to the surprising Louisville Cardinals. Virginia still boasts 4-2 conference record, and it has done so on the strength of its pass offense. The Cavaliers rank No. 42 nationally in passing yardage, but UVA’s ground game has been not worth much. Virginia rushes for just 108.7 yards per game and ranks No. 121 among FBS teams. Even so, Virginia generates 30.8 points per game which is more than enough given its defensive stinginess. The Cavaliers boast a +8.9 point differential on the season.

Bryce Perkins is the talent behind most of the Cavaliers offense. He has thrown for 2,181 yards at a 64.4 percentage with 12 TD passes and eight interceptions. He has suffered a ton of sacks (29) for a massive loss of 187 yards. With teams averaging over three sacks per game, it is partly a cause of Perkins simply doing so much: He is also the lead rusher on the team with his 387 yards on 143 attempts and seven touchdowns. While leading the team in both carries and yardage, he has done so in spite of a 2.7 yard-per-carry average.

No. 1 running back Wayne Taulapapa has been more successful in his (far) fewer attempts. He has 87 rushes for 362 yards an a team-best nine touchdowns. There are no other significant rushing threats on the roster, really. The Cavaliers also get most of its passing yardage from its top-three targets. Wide receivers Hasise Dubois, Joe Reed, and Terrell Jana all have 400 yards or better on the season, and Dubois has three TDs while Reed leads the team with four.

GA TECH

Georgia Tech is just 2-6 on the season and it has lost five of its last six overall, sprinkled with a lone win over the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets are futile offensively and not even good defensively: The team averages 17.1 points per game while giving up 29.1, a -12.0 point differential. The pass offense is putrid in generating just 141 yards per game (No. 124) while the rush is hardly good either (No. 75, at 158.5 yards per game).

Georgia Tech really has precious few bright spots in its season, too. James Graham has been mediocre, and neither Lucas Johnson nor Tobias Oliver has been great solutions at QB either. The leading rusher Jordan Mason is the closest thing Georgia Tech has to a silver lining with his 5.7 yards-per-carry, 622 yards, and six touchdowns. The Yellow Jackets next two top rushers are backup QBs Oliver and Graham.

The top wideout has been Ahmarean Brown who has caught 16 passes for 302 yards and has four of the team’s eight receiving touchdowns.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Georgia Tech

  • Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Yellow Jackets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
  • Yellow Jackets are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
  • Yellow Jackets are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Virginia

  • Cavaliers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Cavaliers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
  • Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
  • Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cavaliers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
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