2016 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Finals – Game #4
#1 Golden State Warriors at #3 Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Lead Best of Seven Series 2-1
Tuesday, May 24, 2016, 9:05 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Chesapeake Energy Arena – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Opening Line: Golden State Pick
Current Line: Golden State -1 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 221 1/2
Current Total: 222
Opening Money Line: Warriors -125 / Thunder +105
Current Money Line: Warriors -125 / Thunder +105
The Oklahoma City Thunder stole home court advantage in game one of the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors with a 108-102 victory. Golden State won game two 118-91 and OKC returned the favor with a 133-105 rout in game three. The Thunder lead the series 2-1 and look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a win in game four Tuesday. The Warriors can even the series before it shifts back to Oakland for game five Thursday.
In game three, Golden State was favored by 2 points and the total was 219.5. Oklahoma City led by 6 at the end of the first quarter, but Golden State tied it up at 40 midway through the second. From that point, the Thunder closed the first half on a 32-7 run to lead by 25 at halftime. In the course of that run, OKC center Steven Adams fouled forward Draymond Green of Golden State. Green kicked his leg up and hit Adams in the groin. Green says it was unintentional, but he was called for a flagrant one foul. Green will not be suspended for game four.
In the second half, the Thunder led by as many as 41 points and cruised to the 28 point win. The Thunder had 62 rebounds to 48 for the Warriors. Kevin Durant had 33 points 8 rebounds and 3 blocks on 10/15 shooting from the field. Russell Westbrook had 30 points, 12 assists and 8 rebounds. Stephen Curry had 24 points. Klay Thompson had 18 points. However, the Warriors’ big three of Curry, Thompson, and Green were all at least -39.
Golden State is coached by Steve Kerr. Kerr won the NBA coach of the year award despite missing almost half the season recovering from back surgery. The Warriors set an NBA record for wins in the regular season with a 73-9 record. They won the Pacific Division by 20 games over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors beat the Houston Rockets in five games in the first round. The Warriors then beat the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the second round. Two time MVP Stephen Curry suffered knee and ankle injuries in the first round against the Rockets and missed six games in the playoffs. He returned for the last two games against the Blazers. Golden State is the defending NBA Champion. Golden State is 53-40-2 ATS and the total is 51-43-1.
Oklahoma City is coached by Billy Donovan. Oklahoma City is 55-27 and won the Northwest Division by 11 games over the Portland Trail Blazers and were the #3 seed in the West. OKC is 46-49-3 ATS and the total is 45-51 this season. The Thunder beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the first round. All four Thunder wins in the series were by double digits. After getting crushed by the Spurs in game one by 32 points, OKC won four of the next five games to win the series in six. The Thunder are in the Conference Finals for the third time in the last six seasons, after missing the playoffs last year.
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Golden State is outscoring teams 114-103 in the playoffs. The Warriors are shooting 48% from the field and 40.7% from three point range. Golden State makes 74.3% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 40.6% from the field and 35.4% from three point range. The Warriors average 45.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 45.6 as well. Golden State averages 27.1 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8 steals and 6.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 19.9 assists, 16 turnovers, 7.6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game.
Klay Thompson averages 27.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals per game in the playoffs. Curry averages 24.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Draymond Green averages 17.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.3 blocks per game. Shaun Livingston averages 11.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa, Andrew Bogut and Ian Clark will also get minutes in the rotation. Bogut is probable with a hip injury. Kevon Looney is out for the season with a hip injury.
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Oklahoma City is outscoring teams 106-98 in the playoffs. The Thunder are #3 in scoring in the playoffs. OKC is shooting 46.9% from the field and 33.9% from three point range. Oklahoma City makes 79.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.9% from the field and 34.1% from three point range. OKC averages 46.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 36.5 per game. Oklahoma City averages 20.2 assists, 13.9 turnovers, 6.9 steals and 4.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.9 assists, 10.9 turnovers, 5.7 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.
Kevin Durant averages 27.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists during the playoffs. Russell Westbrook averages 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 10.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game. He had 18 triple doubles this season to tie Magic Johnson in 1981-82 for the most in the last last 40 seasons. Center Enes Kanter averages 11.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Forward Serge Ibaka averages 11.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.4 blocks per game. Steven Adams averages 10.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. Dion Waiters averages 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal per game. Randy Foye, Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Nick Collison, and Andre Roberson will also get minutes in the rotation.
Golden State is 4-1 ATS on one day rest, 21-8-2 after a double digit loss, 25-10 after failing to cover, 25-10-1 after allowing 125 points or more, 35-16 after a straight up loss, and 1-4 in Tuesday games. The over is 7-1 in OKC between these teams.
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS against teams with winning records, overall, and against Western Conference teams, 4-1 after the opponent scores 100 points or more and on one day rest, 8-3-1 against teams with winning road records, and 2-5 after scoring 125 points or more. The home team is 9-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS at home against the Warriors recently.
Last year, en route to their first NBA title in 40 seasons, the Warriors were down 2-1 to both the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers. Golden State won both of those series in six games. They certainly have the depth and talent to do the same thing in this series, but OKC is the best team they have faced in the last two post-seasons. This is a must win game for the Warriors, but it might be for the Thunder as well. The team that has won the rebounding battle has won all three games. The Thunder played a small ball line-up with Serge Ibaka as the only big that gave the Warriors fits. Still, I think the Warriors win a close game on the road to regain home court advantage.