NBA Western Conference Finals Game Five: Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

2016 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Finals – Game #5
#3 Oklahoma City Thunder at #1 Golden State Warriors
Thunder leads Best of Seven Series 3-1
Thursday, May 26, 2016, 9:05 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Oracle Arena – Oakland, California
Opening Line: Golden State -7
Current Line: Golden State -7 1/2
Opening Total: 221
Current Total: 220 1/2
Opening Money Line: Warriors -350 / Thunder +285
Current Money Line: Warriors -340 / Thunder +270

The Warriors look to stave off elimination in game five against the Thunder.
The Warriors look to stave off elimination in game five against the Thunder.

The Golden State Warriors won an NBA record 73 games during the regular season. However, they find themselves on the brink of elimination in the Western Conference Finals, down three games to one to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Warriors look to extend the series with a win in game five Thursday night in Oakland.

Oklahoma City stole home court with a 108-102 victory in game one. Golden State rebounded in game two with a 118-91 victory. No one, not even the most hard core Thunder fans, could have predicted what would happen next. Oklahoma City completely dominated in all phases of the game in the two games in OKC. The Thunder won game three 133-105, and led by as many as 41 points. Game four Tuesday night was almost as bad. The Thunder won 118-94 to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.

In game four Golden State was a 1.5 point favorite and the total was 222. The Thunder took a 30-26 at the end of the first quarter, and expanded the lead to 19 by halftime. Golden State would pull to within six points in the third quarter but would get no closer. The Thunder pulled away again and cruised to the 24 point win. The Thunder had 68 rebounds to 49 for the Warriors. Russell Westbrook had 36 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists and 4 steals in the rout. Kevin Durant scored 26 points and added 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks. All five Thunder starters scored in double figures. The lone bright spot for the Warriors was Klay Thompson who had 26 points. At one point in the second half he scored 19 straight points for the Warriors. MVP Stephen Curry continued to struggle with 19 points on 6/20 shooting. It is reported he is only at 70% as he continues to recover from a knee injury suffered in the first round of the playoffs.

Oklahoma City is coached by Billy Donovan. Oklahoma City is 55-27 and won the Northwest Division by 11 games over the Portland Trail Blazers and were the #3 seed in the West. OKC is 47-49-3 ATS and the total is 45-52 this season. The Thunder beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the first round. All four Thunder wins in the series were by double digits. After getting crushed by the Spurs in game one by 32 points, OKC won four of the next five games to win the series in six. The Thunder are in the Conference Finals for the third time in the last six seasons, after missing the playoffs last year.

Golden State is coached by Steve Kerr. Kerr won the NBA coach of the year award despite missing almost half the season recovering from back surgery. The Warriors set an NBA record for wins in the regular season with a 73-9 record. They won the Pacific Division by 20 games over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors beat the Houston Rockets in five games in the first round. The Warriors then beat the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the second round. Two time MVP Stephen Curry suffered knee and ankle injuries in the first round against the Rockets and missed six games in the playoffs. He returned for the last two games against the Blazers. Golden State is the defending NBA Champion. Golden State is 53-41-2 ATS and the total is 51-44-1.

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Oklahoma City is outscoring teams 106-98 in the playoffs. The Thunder are #3 in scoring in the playoffs. OKC is shooting 46.9% from the field and 33.9% from three point range. Oklahoma City makes 79.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.9% from the field and 34.1% from three point range. OKC averages 46.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 36.5 per game. Oklahoma City averages 20.2 assists, 13.9 turnovers, 6.9 steals and 4.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.9 assists, 10.9 turnovers, 5.7 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Kevin Durant averages 27.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists during the playoffs. Russell Westbrook averages 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 10.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game. He had 18 triple doubles this season to tie Magic Johnson in 1981-82 for the most in the last last 40 seasons. Center Enes Kanter averages 11.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Forward Serge Ibaka averages 11.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.4 blocks per game. Steven Adams averages 10.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He is probable with an ankle injury. Dion Waiters averages 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal per game. Randy Foye, Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Nick Collison, and Andre Roberson will also get minutes in the rotation.

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Golden State is outscoring teams 114-103 in the playoffs. The Warriors are shooting 48% from the field and 40.7% from three point range. Golden State makes 74.3% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 40.6% from the field and 35.4% from three point range. The Warriors average 45.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 45.6 as well. Golden State averages 27.1 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8 steals and 6.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 19.9 assists, 16 turnovers, 7.6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game.

Klay Thompson averages 27.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals per game in the playoffs. Curry averages 24.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Draymond Green averages 17.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.3 blocks per game. Shaun Livingston averages 11.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa, Andrew Bogut and Ian Clark will also get minutes in the rotation. Bogut is probable with a hip injury.  Kevon Looney is out for the season with a hip injury.

Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS overall and against Western Conference teams, 5-1 on one day rest, 4-1 after a straight up win, after a cover and against Pacific teams, 7-2 against teams with winning home records, 16-5 against teams with winning records, 6-2 in road games, and 9-4 after a double digit win. The under is 4-1 in this series recently and the last five games in Oakland between the teams have gone under the total.

Golden State is 9-1 ATS in Thursday games, 8-2 at home, 7-2 after failing to cover, 27-11-1 against teams with winning road records, 21-9-2 after a double digit loss, 35-17 after a straight up loss, 1-4 against teams with winning records, overall, against Western Conference teams and against Northwest Division teams. The home team is 10-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS at home against the Thunder recently.

This series isn’t over yet. Golden State hadn’t lost back to back games all season until Tuesday night in OKC. The Warriors are perfectly capable of winning three straight games. Having said that, the Thunder have been the quicker and more physical team and just plain better period. If you look at Golden State’s body language in the last two games, they look like a boxer who is up against the ropes. Curry has struggled and Draymond Green has been nearly non-existent in the last two games. I think Golden State wins to survive for at least another game, but I think it will be way closer than the last three games.

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