NBA Predictions: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, 2/12/12, 7:00 PM EST, TV:  ESPN
Opening Point Spread:  Miami -4.5
Current Betting Line:  Miami -4
Opening Total:  190
Current Total:  189.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Atlanta Hawks have great success when All-Star guard Joe Johnson scores 20 or more points

Miami has split its first two games against Atlanta during the 2011-12 campaign, registering a 116-109 overtime win in the last meeting as one-point road favorites.  The Heat played that particular contest with stars LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the bench nursing injuries.  “The tendency is to let your guard down, and we certainly did,” stated Atlanta head coach Larry Drew about that meeting.  The team is 8-5 versus Eastern Conference foes, including a 6-2 mark on the road.  Miami is 3-3 ATS versus division foes this season.

The Heat are 49-40 all-time versus the Hawks, but are 17-27 in games played in Atlanta.  Miami is led offensively by James, who is averaging team highs of 28.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, while Wade has been coming on in contributing 27.2 point per contest over the past five games.  A victory tonight would give the squad a 21-7 record, tying its best 28-game start in franchise history.  Offensively, the team is averaging 102.9 points per game, which is second-most in the league.

Atlanta has won its last two games and has gone “under” the total in six of seven contests.  The Hawks came away with an 89-87 overtime win over the Orlando Magic as five-point road underdogs last time out.  All-Star guard Joe Johnson has managed to score a combined 41 points in the first two meetings, but will need to get some help from forward Josh Smith.  He scored 17 points in the triple-overtime loss versus the Heat, but scored just four of those points in regulation.  Atlanta is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two-plus seasons.

The Hawks enter with a 9-4 home record, which includes a 7-2 mark versus Eastern opponents.  Atlanta will try to get things going from beyond the arc, ranking second in the NBA in shooting 39.1 percent from three-point range.  Johnson is tied for ninth in hitting 52 3-point shots, while shooting 38 percent from that distance.  The team is 12-1 when he manages to score 20-or-more points.

Bettors will likely back the Heat due to their 4-0 ATS mark in the last four meetings in Atlanta, while the Hawks are 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

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