NBA Playoffs Game Six Betting Preview: Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers

2016 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals – Game #6
#2 Toronto Raptors at #7 Indiana Pacers
Raptors Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
Banker’s Life Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, Indiana
Friday, April 29, 2016, 7:35 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNNews
Opening Line: Indiana -2
Current Line: Indiana -2
Opening Total: 196
Current Total: 194
Opening Money Line: Pacers -135 / Raptors +115
Current Money Line: Pacers -125 / Raptors +105

The Pacers look to force a game seven against the Raptors Friday night.
The Pacers look to force a game seven against the Raptors Friday night.

The Toronto Raptors look to wrap up the series against the Indiana Pacers Friday night in game six of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Toronto hasn’t advanced past the first round since 2001. An Indiana win would force a game seven Sunday in Toronto.

Indiana won game one in Toronto 100-90 and game four in Indianapolis 100-83 . The Raptors won game two 98-87 at home and game three 101-85 in Indianapolis. In game five Tuesday, Toronto trailed by 13 points going into the fourth but outscored Indiana 25-9 in the fourth to win 102-99.

Toronto is coached by Dwayne Casey. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division for the third straight season with a 56-26 record by 8 games over the Boston Celtics. Toronto is the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference but they were only a game behind the Cavaliers. The Raptors  are 47-38 ATS and the total is 43-43-1 this season.

Indiana is coached by Frank Vogel. The Pacers finished 45-37 and were in second place in the Central Division behind the Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 games. Indiana is the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference. Indiana is 44-42-1 ATS and the total is 38-49 this season.

Toronto was a 7.5 point favorite against Indiana in game five. The Pacers jumped out to a 15 point lead in the first quarter, but led by 9 at halftime. Toronto opened the fourth on a 15-2 run to tie it up with 6:31 left. Toronto led 100-99 but made two free throws with seconds left. Indiana had a shot at the buzzer to tie it up but replays showed it was late and Toronto held on for the win. Paul George had 39 points with 8 points and 8 assists for the Pacers. DeMar DeRozan had 34 points for the Raptors.

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Indiana is outscoring teams 102-101 this season. The Pacers are #8 in points allowed in the league. Indiana is shooting 45% from the field and 35.1% from three point range. The Pacers make 76.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44% from the field and 33.4% from three point range. The Pacers are #6 or better in both categories. Indiana averages 44.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.5 per game. The Pacers average 21.2 assists, 14.3 turnovers, 9.1 steals and 4.8 blocks per game.

Forward Paul George will likely win the Comeback Player of the year after missing all but a handful of games last season with a horrific broken leg. He averages 23.1 points, 7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Guard Monta Ellis averages 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds 4.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game.  Guard George Hill averages 12.1 points, 4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Forward C.J. Miles averages 11.8 points and 2.7 rebounds per game. Forward Myles Turner averages 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Ian Mahinmi, Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen and Ty Lawson will also get minutes in the rotation.

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Toronto is outscoring teams 103-98 this season. The Raptors are #3 in points allowed this season. Toronto is shooting 45.1% from the field and 37% from three point range. The Raptors are #5 in three point shooting. Toronto makes 77.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 37.3% from three point range. The Raptors are #29 in three point defense. Toronto averages 43.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 40.8 per game. The Raptors are #4 in rebounds allowed. Toronto averages 18.7 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 5.5 blocks per game.

Guard DeMar DeRozan averages 23.5 points per game, 4.5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal per game. Guard Kyle Lowry averages 21.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Center Jonas Valanciunas averages 12.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Forward DeMarre Carroll averages 11 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. Terrance Ross, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, Bismack Biyambo and James Johnson will also get some minutes in the rotation.

Toronto is 6-1 ATS after failing to cover, 1-4 after scoring more than 100 points and 2-10 in first round games. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in this series recently. The Raptors are 12-4 ATS against the Pacers including 9-2 in Indianapolis.

Indiana is 17-4 ATS on two days rest, 4-1 at home and after a cover, 9-3 after a straight up loss, 6-2 overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 5-2 in first round games and against Atlantic Division teams, and 1-4 in Friday games. The under is 4-1 and 4-0 in Indianapolis in this series.

Indiana might have a hangover from losing in such a devastating manner in game five. DeRozan finally showed up for Toronto. I think this will be another close game and I like the Pacers to force a game seven.

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