NBA Playoffs Game Five Betting Picks: Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors

2016 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals – Game #5
#7 Indiana Pacers at #2 Toronto Raptors
Best of Seven Series tied 2-2
Air Canada Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Tuesday, April 26, 2016, 6:05 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: Toronto -7
Current Line: Toronto -7 (-105)
Opening Total: 191 1/2
Current Total: 193
Opening Money Line: Raptors -300 / Pacers +250
Current Money Line: Raptors -300 / Pacers +250

The Raptors ands Pacers are tied 2-2 with game five Tuesday night in Toronto.
The Raptors ands Pacers are tied 2-2 with game five Tuesday night in Toronto.

Four of the eight first round series in the NBA playoffs are tied 2-2. In three of those series, the home team has won every game. The only exception is between the Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers where each team has won a road game. The series moves back to Toronto for game five Tuesday night. Every game in the series has been decided by 10 points or more. Indiana won game one in Toronto 100-90 and game four in Indianapolis 100-83 Saturday. The Raptors won game two 98-87 at home and game three 101-85 in Indianapolis.

Indiana is coached by Frank Vogel. The Pacers finished 45-37 and were in second place in the Central Division behind the Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 games. Indiana is the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference. Indiana is 43-42-1 ATS and the total is 37-49 this season.

Toronto is coached by Dwayne Casey. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division for the third straight season with a 56-26 record by 8 games over the Boston Celtics. Toronto is the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference but they were only a game behind the Cavaliers. The Raptors  are 47-37 ATS and the total is 42-43-1 this season.

Toronto was a one point favorite in game four and the total was 193. The Pacers jumped out to a 28-16 lead in the first quarter and never looked back in a 17 point rout. Toronto shot under 40% from the field and had 19 turnovers. George Hill and Ian Mahinmi each had 22 points for the Pacers. Paul George had 19.

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Toronto is outscoring teams 103-98 this season. The Raptors are #3 in points allowed this season. Toronto is shooting 45.1% from the field and 37% from three point range. The Raptors are #5 in three point shooting. Toronto makes 77.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 37.3% from three point range. The Raptors are #29 in three point defense. Toronto averages 43.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 40.8 per game. The Raptors are #4 in rebounds allowed. Toronto averages 18.7 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 5.5 blocks per game.

Guard DeMar DeRozan averages 23.5 points per game, 4.5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal per game. Guard Kyle Lowry averages 21.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Center Jonas Valanciunas averages 12.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Forward DeMarre Carroll averages 11 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. Terrance Ross, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, Bismack Biyambo and James Johnson will also get some minutes in the rotation.

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Indiana is outscoring teams 102-101 this season. The Pacers are #8 in points allowed in the league. Indiana is shooting 45% from the field and 35.1% from three point range. The Pacers make 76.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44% from the field and 33.4% from three point range. The Pacers are #6 or better in both categories. Indiana averages 44.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.5 per game. The Pacers average 21.2 assists, 14.3 turnovers, 9.1 steals and 4.8 blocks per game.

Forward Paul George will likely win the Comeback Player of the year after missing all but a handful of games last season with a horrific broken leg. He averages 23.1 points, 7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Guard Monta Ellis averages 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds 4.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game.  Guard George Hill averages 12.1 points, 4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Forward C.J. Miles averages 11.8 points and 2.7 rebounds per game. Forward Myles Turner averages 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Ian Mahinmi, Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen and Ty Lawson will also get minutes in the rotation.

Indiana is 16-5 ATS on two days rest, 5-2 overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 7-15-1 after a straight up win, 3-7 after a cover, and 2-7 after a straight up win by 10 points or more. All four games in this series have gone under the total. The underdog is 5-1 ATS between the teams recently.

Toronto is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover, 5-0 after a straight up loss, 4-1 after allowing 100 points or more, 5-1 at home, 4-1 against teams with losing road records, 5-2 against Central Division teams, and 2-9 in conference quarterfinal games. The Raptors are 16-5 ATS against the Pacers recently and 23-8 ATS in Toronto against them.

For large parts of this series guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have been no shows for Toronto. To be honest if it weren’t for the great play of Valanciunas Toronto might have already lost this series or at least be down 3-1. If Lowry and DeRozan play up to their potential then this team is very good like their 56 wins in the regular season. I think Toronto wins a close low scoring game at home.

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