NBA Playoffs Game Six Betting Picks: #4 Washington Wizards at #5 Atlanta Hawks

2017 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference First Round Game #6
#4 Washington Wizards at #5 Atlanta Hawks
Wizards Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
Friday, April 28, 2017, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Philips Arena – Atlanta, Georgia
Opening Line: Atlanta -3
Current Line: Atlanta -3
Opening Total: 210
Current Total: 210
Opening Money Line: Hawks -155 / Wizards +135
Current Money Line: Hawks -155 / Wizards +135

The Hawks need a win at home Friday night to force a game seven against the Wizards.

The home team has won every game in the series between the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks. The Wizards are up 3-2 and look to close out the series with a win in game six Friday night in Atlanta. A Hawks win would force a game seven Sunday in Washington.

Washington is coached by Scott Brooks. The Wizards were 49-33 in the regular season and are the #4 seed in the East. The Wizards are 44-42-1 ATS and the total is 54-33 this season. Atlanta is coached by Mike Budenholzer. The Hawks were 43-39 in the regular season and are the #5 seed in the East. The Hawks are 42-45 ATS and the total is 35-50-2.

Washington won game one 114-107 and game two 109-101, both at home. Atlanta won game three 116-98 and game four 111-101, also both at home. The Wizards won game five Wednesday night 103-99 in Washington. In game five Washington was a six point favorite and the total was 211.5. The Hawks led 25-23 after the first but the Wizards led 50-49 at halftime. Washington led 83-79 after the third quarter. The Wizards led by as many as nine in the fourth but could not put them away. A Dennis Schroder three pointer pulled the Hawks to within 101-99 with 1:10 left. John Wall hit a 21 foot jump shot to make it 103-99 Wizards with 47 seconds left. Neither team scored again, and Atlanta did not foul down the stretch for some reason allowing Washington to run out the clock.

Atlanta shot 38/93 from the field including 9/31 from three point range. The Hawks made 14/21 free throws. Atlanta had 62 rebounds, 23 assists, 11 turnovers, 3 steals and 2 blocks. The Hawks had 12 fast break points and 36 points in the paint. Washington shot 37/82 from the field including 7/24 from three point range. The Wizards made 22/27 free throws. Washington had 50 rebounds, 21 assists, 7 turnovers, 8 steals and 10 blocks. The Wizards had 20 fast break points and 40 points in the paint.

Bradley Beal had 27 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks for the Wizards. John Wall had 20 points, 14 assists, and 6 rebounds. Otto Porter, Jr. had 17 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists. Bojan Bogdanovic had 14 points and 6 rebounds. Dennis Schroder had 29 points, 11 assists and 2 steals for the Hawks. Paul Millsap had 21 points, 11 rebounds and 2 assists. Tim Hardaway, Jr. had 15 points. Taurean Prince had 10 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists.

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Washington is outscoring teams 109-107 this season. The Wizards are #5 in scoring but #21 in points allowed in the NBA. Washington is shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.2% from 3 point range. The Wizards are in the top ten in both categories. Washington makes 78.4% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 46.6% from the field and 36.4% from 3 point range. Washington is #20 or worse in both categories. The Wizards average 42.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 43 per game. The Wizards average 23.9 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.5 steals and 4.1 blocks per game.

John Wall averages 23.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 2 blocks per game. Bradley Beal averages 23.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Markieff Morris averages 14 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Otto Porter, Jr. averages 13.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Bojan Bogdanovic averages 12.7 points and 3.1 assists per game.  Marcin Gortat averages 10.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Marcus Thornton, Kelly Oubre, Jr., Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi. Trey Burke and Brandon Jennings will also get time in the rotation. Smith is questionable with a calf injury. Mahinmi is out until late April with a calf injury.

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Atlanta is being outscored 104-103 this season. The Hawks are #10 in points allowed but #22 in scoring. Atlanta is shooting 45.1% from the field and 34.1% from 3 point range. Atlanta is shooting  72.8% from the free throw line and are #28 in that category. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 35.7% from 3 point range. The Hawks are #5 in field goal defense. Atlanta averages 44.4 rebounds and opponents average 43.9 per game. The Hawks are #9 in rebounding. Atlanta averages 23.6 assists, 14.2 turnovers, 8.2 steals and 4.8 blocks per game.

Forward Paul Millsap averages 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.  Dennis Schroder averages 17.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1 steal per game. Tim Hardaway, Jr. averages 14.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. Dwight Howard averages 13.5 points, 12.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 blocks per game. Kent Bazemore averages 11 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game.  Ersan Ilyasova averages 10.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists. Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Muscala, Taurean Prince, Mike Dunleavy, Malcolm Delaney, Kris Humphries and Jose Calderon will also get minutes in the rotation.

Washington is 8-3 ATS in first round games, 2-5 against teams with winning home records, 3-9 against teams with winning records, 2-6 in road games, 6-19-1 on one day rest, 3-10 after failing to cover, and 1-5-1 in Friday games. The under is 5-2-1 in this series recently but four of the last five games in Atlanta between the teams have gone over the total.

Atlanta is 5-0 ATS at home, 4-0 on one day rest, 5-1 after a cover, 8-3 against teams with winning records, 5-2 after allowing 100 points or more, in first round games and against Southeast Division teams, 7-3 overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 3-7 against teams with losing road records, and 4-11 after a straight up loss. The home team and favorite are both 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

Except for game three, every game in this series has been competitive deep into the fourth. I expect that to continue. I think the Hawks win to force a game seven in another close game.

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