NBA Playoffs Game Six Betting Picks: #3 Toronto Raptors at #6 Milwaukee Bucks

2017 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference First Round Game #6
#3 Toronto Raptors at #6 Milwaukee Bucks
Raptors Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
Thursday, April 27, 2017, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Milwaukee -1 1/2
Current Line: Milwaukee -1 1/2
Opening Total: 194
Current Total: 194 1/2
Opening Money Line: Bucks -120 / Raptors +100
Current Money Line: Bucks -123 / Raptors +103

The bucks look to force a game seven against the Raptors in game six Thursday.

The Toronto Raptors have won two straight games in the first round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. Now the Raptors are up 3-2 with a chance to close out the Bucks in game six Thursday night in Milwaukee. The Bucks look to force a game seven Saturday.

Toronto is coached by Dwane Casey. The Raptors were 51-31 in the regular season and are the #3 seed in the East. Toronto is 47-39-1 ATS and the total is 46-41 this season. Milwaukee is coached by Jason Kidd. The Bucks are the #6 seed and finished 42-40 in the regular season. Milwaukee is 39-48 ATS and the total is 44-41-2 this season.

Milwaukee won game one 97-83 in Toronto and game three at home 104-77. Toronto won game two at home 106-100 and game four 87-76 in Milwaukee. The Raptors won game five 118-93 Monday night at home. Toronto was a 6 point favorite in game five and the total was 193. Toronto jumped out to a 31-20 lead in the first half and would lead by 9 at halftime. Toronto dominated the second half outscoring Milwaukee 61-45 to cruise to a 25 point win.

Milwaukee shot 34/68 from the field including 10/22 from three point range. The Bucks made 15/26 free throws. Milwaukee had 30 rebounds, 22 assists, 15 turnovers, 13 steals and 4 blocks. The Bucks had 11 fast break points and 44 points in the paint. Toronto shot 41/71 from the field including 12/27 from three point range. The Raptors made 24/26 free throws. Toronto had 47 rebounds, 28 assists, 18 turnovers, 10 steals and 6 blocks. The Raptors had 15 fast break points and 40 points in the paint.

Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks for the Bucks. Malcolm Brogdon had 19 points, 3 assists and 2 rebounds. Greg Monroe had 11 points. No other Buck had more than 8 points. All five Toronto starters scored in double digits. Norman Powell had 25 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Serge Ibaka had 19 points, 6 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 assists. DeMar DeRozan had 18 points, 6 assists and 3 rebounds. Kyle Lowry had 16 points, 10 assists, 3 rebounds and 2 steals. DeMarre Carroll had 12 points, 6 rebounds and 2 steals.

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Toronto is outscoring teams 107-103 this season. The Raptors are  in the top ten in both categories this season. Toronto is shooting 46.4% from the field and 36.3% from three point range. The Raptors make 79.6% of their free throws and are #8 in that category. Opponents are shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.4% from three point range. The Raptors are #6 in field goal defense. Toronto averages 43.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.1 per game. The Raptors are #6 in rebounds allowed. Toronto averages 18.5 assists, 11.8 turnovers, 8.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per game.

Guard DeMar DeRozan averages 27.3 points per game, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Guard Kyle Lowry averages 22.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He is probable with a back injury. Forward Serge Ibaka, acquired in a midseason trade with the Orlando Magic, averages 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Center Jonas Valanciunas averages 12 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Terrance Ross averages 10.4 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Norman Powell, Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker and Delon Wright will also get some minutes in the rotation.

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Milwaukee is being outscored 103.8-103.6 this season. The Bucks are #9 in points allowed and #20 in scoring. Milwaukee is shooting 47.4% from the field and 37% from 3 point range. The Bucks are #10 or better in both categories. Milwaukee makes 76.8% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 45.8% from the field and 35.4% from 3 point range. Milwaukee averages 40.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.5. The Bucks are #8 in rebounds allowed, but #29 in rebounding. Milwaukee averages 24.2 assists, 13.4 turnovers, 8.1 steals and 5.3 blocks per game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, nicknamed the “Greek Freak” averages 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.9 blocks per game. He is the only player to be in the top 20 in the league in all statistical categories, and in a normal year would be an MVP candidate. He won’t even crack the top five though. Jabari Parker averaged 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game before a knee injury sidelined him for the season in February.  Khris Middleton averages 14.7 points, 4.2rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.4 blocks per game. He is probable with an illness. Greg Monroe averages 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Malcolm Brogdon averages 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Michael Beasley averages 9.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. Tony Snell, Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic, Spencer Hawes, and Jason Terry will also get some minutes in the rotation.

Toronto is 4-1 ATS in road games, 6-2 against teams with winning home records, 9-4 on two days rest, 7-18-1 in first round games, and 1-4 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 11-4 in this series recently including 5-0 in Milwaukee. The Raptors are 5-2 ATS in Milwaukee recently.

Milwaukee is 4-0 ATS on two days rest, 6-2 after a double digit loss, 8-3 against Atlantic teams, 7-3 after a straight up loss, and 2-5 at home. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in this series recently.

Toronto played their best game of the series by far in game five. They look like they are ready to move on to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Milwaukee won’t make it easy though at home. I like the Raptors to win a close game.

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