NBA Playoffs Game Four Betting Picks: Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

2016 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals – Game #4
#3 Miami Heat at #6 Charlotte Hornets
Heat Lead Best of Seven Series 2-1
Monday, April 25, 2016, 7:05 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Time Warner Cable Arena – Charlotte, North Carolina
Opening Line: Charlotte -2 1/2
Current Line: Charlotte  -2 1/2
Opening Total: 195 1/2
Current Total: 195 1/2
Opening Money Line: Hornets -145 / Heat +125
Current Money Line: Hornets -140 / Heat +120

The hornets look to even the series against the Heat in game four.
The hornets look to even the series against the Heat in game four.

The home team has won every game in a blowout in the series between the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets. The teams play game four in Charlotte Monday night. Miami won game one 123-91 and game two 115-103. The Hornets got back into the series Saturday with a 96-80 win in game three. Both teams finished tied in the Southeast division along with the Atlanta Hawks with identical 48-34 records.

Charlotte is coached by Steve Clifford. Charlotte is 43-42-1 ATS and the total is 42-41-2 this season. Miami is coached by Eric Spoelstra. Miami is 45-39-1 ATS and the total is 37-48-1 this season.

Charlotte was a three point favorite in game three and the total was 196.5. The Hornets led 49-44 at halftime, but busted the game open by outscoring the Heat 26-14 in the third quarter. Neither team shot very well, as both were under 40% from the field. Miami had 14 turnovers to just 3 for Charlotte. Jeremy Lin had 18 points off the bench for the Hornets. Kemba Walker scored 17 points. The Hornets inserted rookie center Frank Kaminsky into the starting lineup and the move paid off as he had 15 points. Four Heat starters scored in double figures including 19 from LUol Deng. It was the first playoff win for the Hornets/Bobcats since 2002 and snapped a 12 game losing streak.

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Miami is outscoring teams 100-98 this season. The Heat are #23 in scoring but #5 in points allowed. Miami is shooting 47% from the field and 33.6% from three point range. Miami is #4 in field goal percentage. The Heat make 74.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.2% from the field and 34.7% from three point range. Miami averages 44.1 rebounds per game and opponents average 41.3 per game. Miami is #6 in rebounds allowed. The Heat average 20.8 assists, 13.2 turnovers, 6.7 steals and 6.5 blocks per game.

Forward Chris Bosh is out for the season with blood clots. He averaged 19.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. Dwyane Wade averages 19 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Hassan Whiteside averages 14.2 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. He is probable with a thigh injury.  Goran Dragic averages 14.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. Joe Johnson averages 13.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game. Luol Deng averages 12.3 assists, 6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Gerald Green and Justise Winslow will also get time in the rotation. Udonis Haslem is probable with a foot injury. Tyler Johnson is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

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Charlotte is outscoring teams 103-101 this season. The Hornets are #11 or better in both categories. Charlotte is shooting 43.9% from the field and 36.2% from three point range. The Hornets are #8 in three point shooting. Charlotte makes 79% of their free throws and are #5 in the league. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 34.9% from three point range. Charlotte averages 43.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.7 per game. The Hornets average 21.7 assists, 11.9 turnovers, 7.3 steals and 5.3 blocks per game.

Guard Kemba Walker averages 20.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game. He is probable with a knee injury.  Guard Nicholas Batum averages 14.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. He is questionable with a foot injury after missing game three.  Forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out for the season with a shoulder injury and played in only seven games this season. He averaged 12.7 points and 6.4 rebounds a game. Center Al Jefferson averages 12 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Guard Jeremy Lin averages 11.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Marvin Williams averages 11.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. Courtney Lee, Jeremy Lamb, Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky will also get minutes in the rotation.

Miami is 6-0 ATS after a straight up loss of 10 points or more, 5-1 after a straight up loss and in Monday games, 4-1 in first round games, 11-4 against Southeast teams, 21-8 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-2 after failing to cover, 10-4 on one day rest, 1-5 against teams with winning home records, and 1-7 in road games.  The under is 20-6 in Charlotte in this series recently. The Heat are 8-3 ATS in Charlotte recently.

Charlotte is 6-2 ATS in Monday games, 3-7 against Southeast teams, 2-5 against teams with winning records and losing road records, 2-6 after a cover, 2-8 in first round games, 1-4 after a straight up win by 10 points or more and on one day rest, and 1-5 after a straight up win. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

I thought without Batum, that Miami would win game three in dominating fashion like they did in the first two games at home. I was wrong, obviously. I think this series is due for a close game and I like the Hornets to even the series at home.

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