NBA Pick Predictions: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz

Al Jefferson scored 22 last game for the Jazz
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz
Tip off: 9:05 PM EST
Spread: EVEN (-110)
Total: 185
M/L: EVEN (-110)

The Bucks have started out the season by winning 2 of their first 4 games, with losses to Charlotte and Denver, and wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. Brandon Jennings has been the Bucks best player and finally seems to be improving his shot selection. He is shooting 42% from the floor, which wouldn’t be high for most players, but it is Jennings’ first time shooting over 40% ever. Moreover, he is scoring 20 a night on 36 mintues of playing time. His assist production could use some work, and he is turning it over way too much (3.0 turnovers per game), but overall, it is hard to complain about his vast improvement.

The Jazz have started out the season 2-3, but won Monday night over New Orleans in a close game in which Devin Harris hit a late game 3 and added some free throws to seal the victory. Al Jefferson had 22 points for the Jazz and Paul Millsap assumed his new role as a starter, with second year forward Derrick Favors sliding to a reserve role. Millsap struggled, but it was more inactivity than poor play. He attempted just 7 shots and picked up only 1 personal foul, both signs of inactive passive play.

Milwaukee Betting Trends:

Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and 5-2 SU in their last 7 games. The Bucks are 5-14 SU in their last 19 on the road and 3-15 ATS in their last 18 against Utah. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 15 games against Utah, and the Bucks are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against the Jazz. The Bucks are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road against the Jazz and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road against Utah. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Bucks’ last 9 games on the road aginst The Jazz.

Utah Betting Trends:

The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and 5-13 SU in their last 18 at home. They are 6-12 SU in their last 18 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Jazz’ last 15 games against Milwaukee and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against the Bucks. The Total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Jazz’ last 9 games at home against the Bucks and the Jazz are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home against the Bucks.

Key Matchup:

Andrew Bogut vs. Al Jefferson

Though they may not be the most exciting on their respective teams, Bogut and Jefferson are likely the best. Jefferson is a good post player, who lacks flashiness, but has very soft touch around the hoop and knows how to use his body to get good angles on finishes around the basket. Bogut is one of the best defenders and shot blockers in the league and has success against most centers, save the really athletic ones like Dwight Howard (who everyone has problems with, anyway). Bogut should be able to neutralize Jefferson and leave the game deciding impact to the backcourt matchup of Devin Harris and Brandon Jennings.

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