NBA on TNT Odds, Picks: Golden St. Warriors at Houston Rockets

Golden State at Houston
Time: 7 PM CT, TNT
Spread: GSW -4
Total: 227.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Golden State Warriors have surged two-games ahead of No. 2 seeded Houston for the top spot n in the Western Conference. Golden State is 15-3 on the road where it will face Houston at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX in the first game of a TNT doubleheader. The Warriors are 4-point favorites in the game, which has a (very) high over/under of 227.5 points according to NBA oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

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Indeed, this game promises to be replete with scoring: Golden State averages 115.4 points per game while Houston is a shade below that at 115.3 points per game. To see the total go over with 230 points between the teams would be altogether unsurprising.

The main culprit for both teams scoring at such a rate is, of course, the three-point shot.

Golden State knocks down 11.7 threes per night at a 39-percent team-wide clip, while Houston is more impressive still with 15.8 threes per game at a 36.7 percent team-wide clip. This game should be a three-point shootout and run and gun special, and it will delight fans to see the game’s top two teams (no offense, Boston) in action in what should be a preview of the Western Conference Finals.


Houston has won its past two games with victories over the L.A. Lakers and Orlando Magic. The Lakers game eclipsed 300 total points as the Rockets won 148-142 at home. James Harden scored 40 points and dished 11 assists, while shooting 10 of 20 from the floor and 17 of 21 from the free throw line. Chris Paul had one of his higher-scoring games with 28 points and 10 assists, and the Rockets starters connected on 14 total threes, with only center Clint Capela neither attempting nor making one.

Forward Ryan Anderson attempted just six shots, but all were threes, as Houston knocked down 18 of 52 from three-point range in the game and still shot 46.2 percent from the floor as a team. Mike D’Antoni has long been regarded as an offensive mastermind, and the way he has made the Houston offense click with two point guards has been masterful.

No questions of usage have arises between Paul and Harden, and both are having few problems racking up double-digit assists in the same game. We suspected the Rockets could be this good, but to see it in action is an altogether different thing.

Moreover, the Rockets rank No. 10 in defensive rating, which is overshadowed by the team’s torrent pace. The Rockets have a defensive rating of 106.8, while playing at the league’s eighth-fastest pace and amassing the best offensive rating (115.4) in the league. If D’Antoni is to overcome his “No D” label, this might be the year he does it.


Golden State will be without Kevin Durant tonight, but will welcome Andre Iguodala back into the starting lineup. Durant is struggling with a right calf strain, so expect Iguodala to replace him in the starting lineup after dealing with a mid-back strain. Either way, it is a huge handicap to the Warriors to play without the Finals MVP and second-leading scorer, and it could spell “Houston” if the Dubs cannot get Iguodala, Jordan Bell and other second unit players to step up and usurp the massive scoring void left by Durant.

Of course, it could be just as well that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson do it themselves with minimal help. “The Splash Brothers” are combining to average 47.8 points per game this season, and more offense could always be milked from the shot-reticent Draymond Green. The Dubs have plenty of depth, but often when a star goes down the scoring comes from other stars, to be real.

Jordan Bell is averaging 5.4 points and four rebounds per game on the season, but he has averaged six and six over the team’s last five games while playing 21 minutes a night. The rookie from Oregon was a second round pick in the 2017 draft, but as loaded as the draft was, there are sneaky performers creeping up from all over the draft board, and he appears to be yet one more.

With Durant out, the Warriors take a hit, and we expect the Rockets to prevail at home in what will be a quieter statement game without Durantula suited up. As for the OVER, we still like it.

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