NBA MVP Betting Odds: A Look at Value Picks

At 9 to 1 odds, Dwayne Wade offers some nice value to win the NBA MVP award this season
We looked at the long shots to win the NBA MVP award in our previous article and will cover the favorites next, but for now lets take a look at some of the mid range guys and odds that look attractive.  Call if which players have value in the current NBA MVP betting odds.

Dwyane Wade – Odds:  9/1 – It doesn’t quite strike me as right that Wade’s odds are twice as unlikely as Lebron James’ odds.  All things considered, the Heat are still Wade’s team, and all the credit of bringing Lebron and Bosh aboard can go to Wade as well.  He’s likely going to remain the number one option on the team and I think he will lead them in scoring, as Lebron takes on more of a facilitator type role.  9/1 odds are pretty decent for one of the best players in the league, and I think if the Heat do blow everyone out of the water this year, it will be as much because of Wade as because of Lebron.  This is actually a great bet to make at 9/1 odds, much better than the chances of Lebron winning in my opinion, with a much better payout, to boot.

Carmelo Anthony – Odds:  12/1 – The whole matter of Melo being discontent and on the trading block does not bode well for his chances of getting MVP.  I can’t think of a single example of a player that switched teams mid way through the season (as I anticipate he might) and still won the MVP award.  He did dramatically increase his scoring from 22 ppg to 28 ppg last year, and has proven to be one of the most undefendable players in the NBA, but the chaos surrounding his situation is enough to steer me away from even considering placing a bet on Carmelo Anthony.

Dirk Nowitzki – Odds: 14/1 – Dirk did already have his MVP season, and he’s not getting any better.  Often players of Dirk’s caliber are given their one year chance at an MVP and he’s already had his.  Dallas is not dramatically better than any other year, and even during their 2007 regular season best record year, they were ousted by the eighth seed (Golden State) in the playoffs.  I don’t see Dirk having much of a chance at this award, and if I were setting the odds I would likely go more along the lines of 25 to 1.  This is not a good bet either.

Chris Paul – Odds: 16/1 – Actually, Chris Paul should have won this award three seasons ago, when Nash took home his second MVP.  He’s arguably the best point guard in the game, and with a solid supporting cast, it would show even more.  It remains to be seen whether Trevor Ariza can make a difference and push New Orleans back into contention.   David West dropped off last year.  For Paul to win this award, he’s going to have to push New Orleans back up to 55 wins and to a home court advantage spot in the first round of the playoffs.  At 16/1 odds, I like Paul a lot better than Carmelo Anthony, and he is actually a decent bet given these odds.  It may be that the trio in Miami mitigate each other’s chances at winning and Kobe has already won the award before, something that certainly works against him since the media loves to have a new player win it every year.  I wouldn’t hesitiate to make a small and speculative bet on Chris Paul.

Derrick Rose – Odds: 18/1 – With Chicago set to make a huge improvement in the standings this year, this could be a decent bet.  The FIBA world Championships have proven to be a great status builder for Derrick Rose, who has been learning from Billups, who plays beside him at SG in the lineup.  Rose has shown before that he can come through when the stakes are high (evidenced by the Boston-Chicago series of the 2009 playoffs) and playing with Carlos Boozer will certainly help him, as Boozer can draw some attention away from Rose, opening up more driving lanes and making the offense run smoother, resulting in more assists.  With Chicago having 18/1 odds on an NBA title this long shot bet could make a great value pick.  Players often make big strides in their third season, and I don’t see why Rose would be an exception to that.  He’s a decent bet at these odds.

Field – Odds:  12/1 – Possible winners from the Field:  Rajon Rondo, Joe Johnson, Brandon Roy, Paul Pierce – Rondo would probably be the reason to bet on the field, but 12/1 odds aren’t exactly a huge payout given the fact that none of these players in the field are favorites to win the award.  It would be far better if there were an option at, say, 30/1 odds on Rondo, and that would be a bet I would consider.  The field is often a weak bet and because the award is often predicated upon regular season success (while the Celts are a playoff team), it wouldn’t make the greatest of bets, anyway.  I don’t think betting the field is a very good idea.

All in all it looks like Dwayne Wade is worth a wager and Chris Paul could be worth a small bet as both offer some value on the NBA MVP odds for this season.  Rose is close but would like a little better price than is currently offered.  Once again these odds were taken from Bodog Sportsbook and Casino who offers a ton of prop bets on all sports.

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