NBA Futures Betting: Best Long Shot Bets & NBA Picks

At 18 to 1 Durant and the Thunder offer lots of value in the NBA futures market
Here is an early look at the NBA futures betting market.  Best Odds, Best Bets (Other than Miami or LA Lakers):  All odds taken from Bodog.

11/1  ORLANDO MAGIC

Considering the Magic made the 2009 NBA Finals and still has a strong core intact from that team, the 11/1 odds seem to be a decent bet.  Dwight Howard is only getting better, and Vince Carter’s expiring contract could bring in a solid piece at the trade deadline (Andre Iguodala seems like a strong possibility).  While the additions of Duhon and Quentin Richardson don’t seemingly make the Magic a stronger team, resiging Redick could prove to be crucial, as he was one of the team’s key reserves last year in the playoffs.   Ultimately, the fate of how strong the Magic are could lie in the decision to trade Carter come February.  A lot of teams are willing to give enticing pieces in exchange for expiring contracts, and Vince’s hefty contract could pull in a top star.  Placing a bet now, as opposed to when the season gets running and the Magic are already cooking, could be a wise move.  The 11/1 odds aren’t likely to get any stronger in terms of payout, and dropping a few bucks on the Magic could prove to be rewarding.

12/1 BOSTON CELTICS

Seriously?   A team that took the Lakers to 7 games this year has 12/1 Odds??  Even if Boston falters during the regular season again; even if they struggle to dominate at home…Boston has proven that when healthy they are one of the best teams in the league, anchored by their strong defense.  Kevin Garnett may never be the player he was during his days in Minnesota, but he is still a strong threat and has a great mid range jumper that allows him to remain effective, even as his knees fail him.  Rondo is proving himself to be one of the best point guards in the league, and if he could ever improve his jumpshot and free throw techniques, he could be near unstoppable.  Ray Allen showed he still has a lot in the tank and when hot can be very effective.  Signing Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal should prove to be a big boon with Perkins out possibly until February (and even when he returns, how long might it take a player who once had weight issues to return to form?).  The Celts also signed troubled young player Delonte West, who is very clutch and is a great player to bring off the bench, allowing either Rondo or Ray Allen to get rest for extended periods of time.  While Boston is certainly far from a lock to win the championship, at 12/1 odds, it seems prudent to place a small bet, considering the massive potential payout.

40/1  MILWAUKEE BUCKS

While a bit of a long shot to say the least, Milwaukee did take Atlanta 7 games WITHOUT star center Andrew Bogut.  Signing Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette this summer; in addition to re-signing versatile swingman John Salmons will add great depth to the Milwaukee bench.  Having a premier defender in Mbah a Moute is also a nice piece, as it gives Milwaukee someone to throw at the premier offensive SFs in the league (Lebron, Carmelo, etc).  Milwaukee closed last year as one of the hottest teams and with Bogut they could have made some real noise in the playoffs.  Plus, who knows how good they could be if Michael Redd becomes even half the player he once was.  Milwaukee is my favorite long shot bet, and with 40/1 odds it’s worth considering dropping a few bucks on them (pun intended!).  It ‘s a long shot, but they are my “long shot special.”

35/1  PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Again, really?  A team with this much young talent and depth is THIRTY FIVE to one to win the championship?  IF, and it’s a huge if, Greg Oden can remain healthy, they have a ridiculously good combo at center with Marcus Camby resigned.  And even if one of them goes down, they still have a serviceable back up there with Joel Przybilla.  Roy has proven time and time again he is a clutch scorer and can be relied upon at the end of games, and if LaMarcus Aldridge ever starts playing his hardest, the league could be in for a real scare.  Losing Travis Outlaw to free agency may actually end up proving beneficial as it paves the way for promising small forward Nicolas Batum to step in and receive serious minutes.  He’s a bit of a Trevor Ariza clone, able to hit threes and get steals and blocks at key times.  In addition to that, they also signed promising young forward Wes Matthews.  I think Portland is MUCH, MUCH better than the 35/1 odds they are given and make another great long shot bet.

18/1 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

They were within a bad call on a Kobe jumpshot in game 6 to pushing the Lakers, the eventual champs, to seven games!  And yet, 18/1 odds!  Kevin Durant led the league in scoring and if they can address their deficiencies at center (either through a trade or the continued development of Serge Ibaka and Cole Aldrich), they will have one of the best starting five in the league.  Russell Westbrook needs to improve his shot selection and cut down on turnovers for OKC to take the next step, but that seems possible as many players reach full stride in their third NBA season.  They are a team of the future, but who said the future can’t be NOW?  For a team that showed so much resiliency and won 50 games in a year they weren’t even expected to make the playoffs, an 18/1 odd bet seems like a no brainer.  Sure it would shock the league if they won a championship this early, but this is about long shot bets, and they make a good one.

I have to say that Orlando and Oklahoma City offer the most value at this point and are worth a wager.  When the regular season rolls around dont forget about grabbing our winning NBA picks.  On early bird special right now, we will murder the books once again in 2010-11.

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  1. Portland (with a healthy Oden) has a better shot than OKC OR Orlando. In fact, Portland OWNED OKC last year in spite of all of the injuries. Everyone’s in love with OKC right now because they played LAL tough. Congrats. LA took them lightly. Durant’s a great scorer. Westbrook is one of the better PGs in the league. But they are soft, soft , SOFT in the middle and Portland matches up with them extremely well…Batum kept Durant to 30% shooting last year. No wonder Portland turned down the 4th pick in the draft for him. Portland is seriously undervalued – and I’m really good with that. GO BLAZERS.

  2. Don problem is Oden may never be healthy. With him playing a full schedule though I agree the Blazers are going to be a beast. I think within the next 5 years it is possible that each one of these teams has a ring. Their front offices are just so good at what they do.

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