Fade the Public Favorite: Texas Tech Vs SMU College Football Picks

Texas Tech has been bet up by the public and normally you should fade those types of moves
This Sunday features an interesting match-up between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Our college football betting lines page indicates that the Red Raiders opened as 10 ½ point favorites. But heavy betting on the side of Tech (75%) has raised that number to 13 ½ points at most books. With that many points, I think it’s wise to fade this public favorite and back the Mustangs.

The big story, of course, is the return of Tommy Tuberville to the college football sidelines. Tuberville, the former Auburn head coach, takes over for Mike Leach in Lubbock. Although Leach’s dynamic passing attack is gone, Tuberville plnas to keep the offense wide open after hiring Troy’s offense coordinator Neal Brown. The Red Raiders had a decent season in 2009, finishing 9-4 after defeating Michigan State in the Alamo Bowl.

Tuberville has an enviable problem in having to choose between two senior quarterbacks who have both produced in the past: Taylor Potts and Steve Sheffield. Tubberville settled on Potts a couple weeks ago, and the senior has a strong collection of returning pass catchers, maybe the best group in the Big 12. And don’t forget about running back Barron Batch, who last year totaled nearly 1,300 combined yards with 15 touchdowns. If the offensive line has another strong year, Red Raider fans should have an exciting season of football.

The defense lost a lot from last year, especially up front. While the secondary returns some key players (which definitely matters against SMU), the bunch need to get their hands on more passes. Also worth noting is that Tech is switching to a 3-4 defense, which will take some game experience for players to really grasp the scheme.

That looks to be the bugaboo for this team. Texas Tech is transitioning from a truly unique offensive system under Mike Leach. While Tuberville and Brown are implementing another pass-happy system, it is by no means the same system. And on defense, players will need some time to adjust to a 3-4 scheme. I expect some growing pains in Lubbock, especially in the first half of the season.

For SMU, head coach June Jones is known for his aerial attack against opposing defenses. Before coming to Dallas, Jones was able to elevate the Hawaii program to never-before-seen levels. After finishing 1-11 in 2008 with SMU, Jones and the Mustangs were one of college footballs biggest improvers last year, ending up 8-5. That win total includes an absolute drubbing of favored Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl.

Jones welcomes back sophomore quarterback Kyle Padron, who last year as a true freshman threw for nearly 2,000 yards, 10 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Several top receivers return, as do four offensive linemen with starting experience, but Jones and company have to find a serviceable tailback to take some heat off Padron. On defense the front 7 appear to be strong, although the secondary loses some of its key contributors from last season. Overall, SMU should be good this year. Expect the Mustangs to battle for the Conference USA crown.

Coincidentally, SMU plays a 3-4 defensive set, which is another reason I like the Mustangs in this match-up. While most teams sport the more traditional 4-3 defense, SMU is comfortable lining up against a 3-4 defense that knows what it’s doing. Coach Jones appears to be in the middle of another astounding rebuilding job, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see SMU exceed their 8 win total from last year. I think Texas Tech can have a decent year, but the first season of a new coach can be challenging (see Jones). I think the Red Raiders are probably a bowl team, but with new offensive and defensive schemes, look for an underrated SMU squad to spoil the public consensus. Consider playing the Mustangs with nearly 2 touchdowns.

And remember – this is a speculative prediction. For guaranteed winning plays, make sure to grab one of Maddux Sports college football picks against the spread packages.

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