NBA Finals Game Six Betting Preview: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

2016 NBA Playoffs
NBA Finals – Game #6
#1 Golden State Warriors at #1 Cleveland Cavaliers
Warriors Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
Thursday, June 16, 2016, 9:05 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Quicken Loans Arena- Cleveland, Ohio
Opening Line: Cleveland -2 1/2
Current Line: Cleveland -2
Opening Total: 208
Current Total: 207 1/2
Opening Money Line: Cavaliers -145 / Warriors +125
Current Money Line: Cavaliers -135 / Warriors +115

The Cavaliers look to force a game seven against the Warriors Thursday night.
The Cavaliers look to force a game seven against the Warriors Thursday night.

The Golden State Warriors had a chance to finish off the Cleveland Cavaliers in game five of the NBA Finals. However, Warriors’ forward Draymond Green was suspended after getting his second flagrant two foul of the playoffs, and center Andrew Bogut suffered a knee injury early in the second half. the Warriors had no rim protector and Cleveland took advantage with a 112-97 victory Monday night. Now the two teams return to Cleveland for game six Thursday night. Golden State also won the NBA title last year in game six in Cleveland. A Cavaliers win would force a game seven Sunday night in Oakland.

Golden State won game one 104-89 and game two 110-77. Cleveland got back in the series with a 120-90 rout in game three. The Warriors took command of the series with a 108-97 win in game four. No team has ever come back in the NBA Finals after being down 3-1. However, the Warriors themselves were down 3-1 in the last round against the Oklahoma City Thunder and came back to win the series.

Golden State was a 5.5 point favorite against Cleveland in game five and the total was 209. The teams were tied at 61 at the half. Cleveland took control of the game with a 32-23 third quarter and would never trail again as they cruised to a 15 point victory to stay alive. Cleveland shot 53% from the field and Golden State shot 36.4% from the field. The Warriors had 59 rebounds to 52 for the Cavaliers. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each had 41 points for the Cavaliers. James also had 16 rebounds and 7 assists. Klay thompson scored 37 points and Steph Curry scored 25 for the Warriors.

Golden State is coached by Steve Kerr. Kerr won the NBA coach of the year award despite missing almost half the season recovering from back surgery. The Warriors set an NBA record for wins in the regular season with a 73-9 record. They won the Pacific Division by 20 games over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors beat the Houston Rockets in five games in the first round. The Warriors then beat the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the second round. Two time MVP Stephen Curry suffered knee and ankle injuries in the first round against the Rockets and missed six games in the playoffs. He returned for the last two games against the Blazers and has played ever since. The Warriors came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western conference Finals. Golden State is the defending NBA Champion. Golden State is 59-43-2 ATS and the total is 53-49-2.

Cleveland is coached by Tyronn Lue, who replaced David Blatt midway though the season. The Cavaliers are the first team in NBA history to make the NBA Finals with two different rookie head coaches in two straight seasons. Cleveland went 57-25 and won the Central Division by 12 games over the Indiana Pacers. Cleveland was the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and breezed into the Conference Finals by sweeping the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks. The Cavaliers then beat the Toronto Raptors in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers are 48-50-3 ATS and the total is 48-52-1 this season.

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Golden State is outscoring teams 111-105 in the playoffs. The Warriors are shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.3% from three point range. Golden State makes 73.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field and 34.2% from three point range. The Warriors average 44.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 46.6. Golden State averages 25 assists, 14 turnovers, 8.5 steals and 5.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.4 assists, 15.1 turnovers, 8.2 steals and 5.1 blocks per game.

Curry averages 26.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Klay Thompson averages 26.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals per game in the playoffs. Draymond Green averages 15.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 blocks per game. Shaun Livingston, Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa, Andrew Bogut and Ian Clark will also get minutes in the rotation. Kevon Looney is out for the season with a hip injury. Bogut is out for the series with a knee injury.

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Cleveland is outscoring teams 107-94 during the playoffs. The Cavaliers are shooting 47.5% from the field including 43.4% from three point range. The Cavaliers make 72.5% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 45.1% from the field and 34% from three point range. Cleveland averages 43 rebounds per game and opponents average 37.1 per game. The Cavaliers average 22.9 assists, 11.6 turnovers, 7 steals and 3.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 22.9 assists, 12.4 turnovers, 6.1 steals and 3.9 blocks per game.

LeBron James averages 24.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7 assists and 2.21 steals per game in the playoffs. James is playing in his sixth straight NBA Finals something that hasn’t been done since the 1960’s era Celtics. Kyrie Irving averages 24.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Kevin Love averages 17.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. J.R. Smith averages 12 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Channing Frye averages 8.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game. Richard Jefferson, Tristan Thompson, Matthew Dellevadova, and Iman Shumpert will also get minutes in the rotation.

Golden State is 5-0 ATS after the opponent scores 100 points or more, 4-0 after allowing 100 points or more, 11-1 in Thursday games, 9-1-1 after a double digit home loss, 6-2 in NBA finals games, against teams with winning records and overall, 23-9-2 after a double digit loss, 27-11 after failing to cover, 34-15-2 on two days rest, and 36-16 after a loss. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS against the Cavaliers and 4-1 in Cleveland.

Cleveland is 7-1 ATS at home, 6-1 against teams with winning road records, 12-5 in Thursday games, and 2-6 in NBA Finals games. The under is 3-1-1 in this series recently.

Cleveland had their way in game five without Green. However, even in Cleveland I still like Golden State to win on the road. James and Irving will have to play just as well if not better than they did in game five to avoid watching the Warriors celebrate for the second straight year.


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