NBA Finals Game Five Betting Picks: Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

2016 NBA Playoffs
NBA Finals – Game #5
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers at #1 Golden State Warriors
Warriors Lead Best of Seven Series 3-1
Monday, June 13, 2016, 9:05 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Oracle Arena – Oakland, California
Opening Line: Golden State -7 1/2
Current Line: Golden State -5 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 206 1/2
Current Total: 204 1/2
Opening Money Line: Warriors -365 / Cavaliers +300
Current Money Line: Warriors -240 / Cavaliers +200

The Warriors look to wrap up their second straight NBA title in game five against the Cavaliers.
The Warriors look to wrap up their second straight NBA title in game five against the Cavaliers.

The Golden State Warriors are one win away from their second straight NBA Championship and also completing the greatest season in NBA history with 89 wins. They will have to do it without star forward Draymond Green who was suspended after the league retroactively gave him his second flagrant 2 foul after a confrontation late in game four with LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers game four Friday night in Cleveland. Game five is Monday night in Oakland. If the Cavaliers win, then game six will be Thursday night in Cleveland.

Golden State won game one 104-89 and game two 110-77. Cleveland got back in the series with a 120-90 rout in game three. The Warriors took command of the series with a 108-97 win in game four. No team has ever come back in the NBA Finals after being down 3-1. However, the Warriors themselves were down 3-1 in the last round against the Oklahoma City Thunder and came back to win the series.

Cleveland was a 2.5 point favorite in game four and the total was 207.5. The Warriors led by one after the first quarter, but the Cavaliers would take a five point lead into halftime. Golden State would take a 2 point lead into the fourth. The Cavaliers went ice cold in the fourth, going 6:36 without a field goal. Golden State pulled away and would win by 11. The Cavaliers actually shot better than the Warriors 46.9% to 40.7% for the game but the Warriors made 17 three pointers to just 6 for the Cavaliers. After three subpar games where he had scored a combined 48 points, two time league MVP Stephen Curry finally broke out with 38 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds. His fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson had 25 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 34 points. LeBron James had 25 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists. Kevin Love returned after missing game three with a concussion. He came off the bench and scored 11 points.

Cleveland is coached by Tyronn Lue, who replaced David Blatt midway though the season. The Cavaliers are the first team in NBA history to make the NBA Finals with two different rookie head coaches in two straight seasons. Cleveland went 57-25 and won the Central Division by 12 games over the Indiana Pacers. Cleveland was the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and breezed into the Conference Finals by sweeping the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks. The Cavaliers then beat the Toronto Raptors in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers are 47-50-3 ATS and the total is 48-52 this season.

Golden State is coached by Steve Kerr. Kerr won the NBA coach of the year award despite missing almost half the season recovering from back surgery. The Warriors set an NBA record for wins in the regular season with a 73-9 record. They won the Pacific Division by 20 games over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors beat the Houston Rockets in five games in the first round. The Warriors then beat the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the second round. Two time MVP Stephen Curry suffered knee and ankle injuries in the first round against the Rockets and missed six games in the playoffs. He returned for the last two games against the Blazers and has played ever since. The Warriors came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western conference Finals. Golden State is the defending NBA Champion. Golden State is 59-42-2 ATS and the total is 53-49-1.

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Cleveland is outscoring teams 107-94 during the playoffs. The Cavaliers are shooting 47.5% from the field including 43.4% from three point range. The Cavaliers make 72.5% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 45.1% from the field and 34% from three point range. Cleveland averages 43 rebounds per game and opponents average 37.1 per game. The Cavaliers average 22.9 assists, 11.6 turnovers, 7 steals and 3.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 22.9 assists, 12.4 turnovers, 6.1 steals and 3.9 blocks per game.

LeBron James averages 24.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7 assists and 2.21 steals per game in the playoffs. James is playing in his sixth straight NBA Finals something that hasn’t been done since the 1960’s era Celtics. Kyrie Irving averages 24.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Kevin Love averages 17.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. J.R. Smith averages 12 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Channing Frye averages 8.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game. Richard Jefferson, Tristan Thompson, Matthew Dellevadova, and Iman Shumpert will also get minutes in the rotation.

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Golden State is outscoring teams 111-105 in the playoffs. The Warriors are shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.3% from three point range. Golden State makes 73.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field and 34.2% from three point range. The Warriors average 44.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 46.6. Golden State averages 25 assists, 14 turnovers, 8.5 steals and 5.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.4 assists, 15.1 turnovers, 8.2 steals and 5.1 blocks per game.

Curry averages 26.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Klay Thompson averages 26.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals per game in the playoffs. Draymond Green averages 15.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 blocks per game. Shaun Livingston, Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa, Andrew Bogut and Ian Clark will also get minutes in the rotation. Kevon Looney is out for the season with a hip injury.

Cleveland is 8-3 ATS after the opponent scores 100 points or more, 5-2 after failing to cover, 12-26-2 in Monday games, 7-18-1 after a double digit loss, 1-4 against Western Conference teams, 1-5 in road games and against teams with winning home records, 1-6 in NBA Finals games, and 0-5-1 after a double digit home loss. The under is 10-4-1 in this series, including 4-0-1 in Oakland.

Golden State is 6-1 ATS in NBA Finals games, against teams with winning records and overall, 13-3 at home, 4-1 after a win and after a cover, 36-14-2 against teams with winning road records, 5-2 against Central Division teams, 7-3 in Monday games, and 34-15-2 on two days rest. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS against the Cavaliers and 9-3 ATS in Oakland in the series.

LeBron James almost had a triple double but he still gets criticized mainly because he passed up a lot of shots in the fourth quarter. I don’t think Cleveland can come back to win this series, but if they can steal game five without Green for the Warriors, then they return home for game six. Even though the Cavaliers are in a huge hole, they had chances to win in the fourth quarters of game one and game four, but simply didn’t make enough shots. Part of that is the great defense of the Warriors. Even without Green, I think the Warriors find a way to celebrate on their home court where they have gone 50-3 this season including the playoffs.

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