Mountain West Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons

Cody-Fajardo-nevada-2013Nevada-Air Force
Time: 2 PM ET
Spread: AF -3
Total: 54

Betting Odds courtesy of Bovada

Nevada is 6-3 on the season with a 3-2 mark in Mountain West play, but Air Force has been strong this season, 7-2 thus far with a matching 3-2 record in MWC. The Falcons will host the Wolf Pack in a game Air Force is favored by 3-points in according to college football oddsmakers at Bovada.

As usual, Air Force is reliant on the rush. But not hazardously so this season. The Falcons average 282.4 yards rushing a game, which is good for 9th in college football. The pass is not called upon much, but still totals 151.4 yards per game, helping result in an effective Falcons offense that averages 31.7 points per game. With a renewed focus defensively, Air Force has held opponents to 22 points per game this season.

Air Force comes in as winners of its past three contests, having notched victories over New Mexico, Army and UNLV. The New Mexico game was just a 4-point victory, but Army and UNLV were both blowouts.

Senior QB Kale Pearson has had an impressive season. He’s thrown just two INTs with 10 TDs and a 60 percent completion ratio. While the Falcons aren’t a pass heavy team, he still has 1,213 yards and a 164.7 passer rating. Air Force is just a tough team on the offensive end of the football this season.

Nevada is also riding a three-game win streak having defeated BYU, Hawaii and San Diego State in the last three weeks. Last week, the Wolf Pack won 30-14 over SDS, as the Wolf Pack limited SDS to just 4-of-13 converting third downs, while also forcing three Aztec turnovers and getting one pick.

Wolf Pack senior QB Cody Fajardo has regressed from impressive sophomore and junior seasons. His percent completion is still high at 61.1 percent with 6.36 yards per attempt, but he’s thrown an alarming eight INTs while managing just 12 TDs., and he’s also been sacked 13 times already. His raw QB rating is just 69.2.

Wolf Pack running backs have been effective this season. Don Jackson is the leading rusher with 649 yards, while Fajardo has contributed 589 yards and a team leading 10 TDs from the slot. James Butler rounds out the backfield with 468 yards and five TDs (one ahead of Jackson). At WR, the Wolf Pack have three receivers with 450 yards or more, and Jerico Richardson and Hasaan Henderson have both been very effective. Jackson also has 106 yards on the season via the pass.

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