Mountain West Betting Preview: Boise St Broncos at Colorado St Rams

#5 Boise St Broncos at Colorado St Rams
Hughes Stadium – Fort Collins, Colorado
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: The MTN
Opening Line: Boise St 30 1/2
Current Line: Boise St 32
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Boise St -13500 / Colorado St +5500
Current Money Line: Boise St -15000 / Colorado St +6000

Boise State Georgia Betting
Boise St opens Mountain West play at Colorado St. The Broncos are 32 point favorites on the road in Fort Collins.

After games against once and future conference opponents the last two weeks, the #5 Boise St Broncos play their first Mountain West Conference game on the road at the Colorado St Rams. Boise St is 5-0 under Chris Petersen with wins over Georgia 35-21 in Atlanta, at Toledo 40-15, at home against Tulsa 41-21 and Nevada 30-10, and last week at Fresno St 57-7. Colorado St is 3-2 under Steve Fairchild, with road wins at New Mexico 14-10, and Utah St 35-34 in overtime, and a home win over Northern Colorado 33-14. The two losses came to Colorado in Denver 28-14, and two weeks ago at home against San Jose St 38-31. This is the first ever meeting between the new conference rivals, and could be the last of Boise St accepts an invitation to the Big East.

Boise St played at Fresno St last Friday night. College football handicappers who played Boise St were victims of back door covers two weeks in a row against Tulsa and Nevada. Both teams scored late in games Boise had dominated to cover huge spreads. Last week, bettors didn’t have to worry about that happening again against Fresno St. The Broncos crushed the Bulldogs 57-7, even scoring a touchdown with 17 seconds left when they were up 50-7 to easily cover the 21 point spread. That play was of interest to total bettors, because it put the game over the 58 point total.  Fresno St didn’t score until early in the fourth quarter on a 79 yard punt return. That was the only thing that went right for Fresno St all day. The Bulldogs had 9 penalties and 4 turnovers in the game. Fresno could only manage 270 total yards and 9 first downs in the rout. Boise St had 464 total yards including 281 passing yards. Boise St quarterback Kellen Moore, ( a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate) had 254 passing yards, with 3 touchdowns. Running back Doug Martin had 16 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown. D.J. Harper had 2 rushing touchdowns. Geraldo Boldwijn had 2 touchdown catches.

Boise St is averaging 450.2 total yards and 40.6 points a game. The Broncos throw for 298.8 yards a game. The Broncos have 5 turnovers and have allowed two sacks this year. Boise is 37/82 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/27 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. The Broncos are allowing 293 yards and 14.8 points a game. Teams are rushing for 118.6 yards a game against the Broncos and passing for 174.4 yards. Boise has forced 13 turnovers and 9 sacks so far this season. Bronco opponents are 18/72 on third and fourth down conversions, and 6/9 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns.

Moore is 125/169 passing for 1,391 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this year.  Martin has 101 carries, for 422 yards, and 5 touchdown runs, along with 16 catches, 172 yards, and a touchdown. Harper has 47 carries, 175 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown.  Receiver Matt Miller has 25 catches, 284yards, and 3 touchdowns. Mitch Burrows has 25 catches, 259 yards and a touchdown along with 5 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown run.  Tyler Shoemaker has 15 catches, for 221 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Efaw has 11 catches, 92 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Dan Goodale is 20/24 on extra points and 2/2 on field goals with a long of 32 yards, and Michael Frisina is 3/4 on extra points. The Broncos are banged up with 8 players listed as questionable or out.

Two weeks ago, Colorado St hosted San Jose St. The Rams were 3.5 point favorites against the Spartans. San Jose St jumped out to a 24-7 lead in the second quarter but Colorado St scored late to make the halftime score 24-14. The Rams rallied to tie it in the fourth quarter but San Jose St scored with 54 seconds left to pull off the mild upset 38-31. both teams had 3 turnovers in the game. Colorado St had 458 total yards but only 71 rushing yards. CSU quarterback Pete Thomas threw for 387 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and added a rushing touchdown. He was the leading rusher for the Rams with 20 yards. Receiver Lou Greenwood had 6 catches 149 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Spartans had 450 total yards including 313 passing yards.

Colorado St is averaging 25.4 points a game along with 340.8 total yards a game. The Rams average just 119.2 rushing yards a game. Colorado St has allowed 13 sacks and has turned the ball over 7 times. The Rams are 30/82 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/18 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns.  Colorado St has only allowed 344.4 total yards and 24.8 points a game. The Rams have allowed 176 passing yards a game which is eleventh best in the country.  The Rams have forced 12 turnovers and 19 sacks in the two games so far. CSU opponents are 32/77 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 10 points.

Thomas is 112/167 passing with 1,089 yards, 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and he also has 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back Raymond Carter has 53 carries, 260 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 46 yards. Chris Nwoke has 62 carries for 231 yards with 4 touchdowns, and also 11 catches for 70 yards. Greenwood has 15 catches, 257 yards, and 2 scores.  Receiver Crockett Gillmore has 21 catches for 222 yards with 3 touchdown. Joe Brown has 15 catches for 92 yards. Five other Ram receivers have at least seven catches including the running backs. Kicker Ben DeLine is 15/15 on extra points  4/7 on field goals, with a long of 42 yards.  Colorado St has 8 players that are listed as questionable to out either due to injuries or suspensions. Most are reserves but it will still affect their depth.

Colorado St is 1-4 against the spread this season and the total is 3-2 in those games. Boise St is 3-2 ATS this season and the total is 2-3 in those games. The Broncos are 21-10 ATS in the last 31 games, including 6-0 in Saturday road games, 8-1 ATS on grass, 17-4 ATS in the last 21 as a road favorite, including 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 points or greater, 20-6 ATS in road games, 6-2 ATS in October, 9-4 ATS following a straight up win, 29-13-1 ATS overall, and 19-9-1 ATS following a cover. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home games against teams with winning road records, 4-1 ATS versus teams with winning records, and as underdog of 10.5 points or greater, 9-3 ATS as a home underdog, 5-2 ATS following a straight up loss, 3-10 ATS following a game where they failed cover, and 1-6 in the last overall.

I know Colorado St is coming off a bad loss two weeks ago, and Boise is almost unstoppable, but call me crazy, I think Colorado St can make this game closer than people think. They won’t win obviously but I think the Rams can keep it within 20-25 points, which is good enough for the cover. Colorado St’s passing defense is one of the best in the country and they might be able to slow down Moore and the powerful Boise offense. The only thing that worries me, is if Colorado St gets down big early, they don’t have the fire power to catch up.

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