College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 7: Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers SEC Preview

Florida Gators at No. 24 Auburn Tigers
Saturday, 10/15/11, 7:00 PM EST, TV:  ESPN
Opening Point Spread:  Florida -1.5
Current Betting Line:  Florida -2
Opening Total:  50.5
Current Total:  49.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Auburn Tigers Football
Auburn has historically dominated Florida inside Jordan-Hare Stadium

Florida is on the road for a second consecutive week after getting handed a 41-11 loss to the LSU Tigers inside Tigers Stadium.  The Gators have elected to start Jacoby Brissett, who will be playing a second game in place of the injured John Brantley.  The team managed just 213 total yards against the Tigers, which was the fifth-lowest total since 1996.  “Certainly, we’ve got to do something else offensively,” commented first-year head coach Will Muschamp.  “If you continue to do the same things, you’ll get the same results.”  Florida is 18-14 ATS over the last two-plus seasons and the ‘over’ is 16-15 over that span.

The Gators haven’t had much success in this series, posting a 38-42-2 record, including a 8-25-1 mark inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.  It’s still important to note that the team is coming off arguably the toughest back-to-back situation in college football, playing Alabama before LSU.  Offensively, the team has still rushed for 1,164 yards and averaged 5.0 yards per carry.

Auburn returns home after playing two consecutive SEC games on the road, including a 38-14 loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks as 10-point road underdogs.  The Tigers were out-gained by 43 yards in that contest.  Running back Michael Dyer continues to be the team’s most important offensive weapon, rushing for 100-plus yards in all three conference games.  It’s surprising to see the Tigers as the underdog in this contest, especially considering the success on this field against the Gators, while also realizing the program has won 19 of its last 21 games.  Auburn is 7-4 ATS as an underdog and the ‘under’ is 6-3 in those contests.

The Tigers have won 10 of their last 11 SEC games, while entering with an 11-game win streak at Jordan-Hare.  If the game is close, Auburn certainly has the advantage, posting a 9-0 record under current head coach Gene Chizik in games decided by four points or less.  He’s been very clear that Barrett Trotter is the starting quarterback come Saturday.  “Barrett is our quarterback today and he is our starting quarterback against Florida,” stated Chizik in practice this week.

Bettors will likely back the Tigers due to the underdog being 4-0 ATS in this series, while the Gators are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.

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