MAC Football Preview: Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons

Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Saturday, 10/26/13, 2:30 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  Bowling Green -2.5
Current Betting Line:  Bowling Green -4
Opening Total:  58
Current Total:  56
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Bowling Green Falcons are 11-5 ATS as favorites since 2011
The Bowling Green Falcons are 11-5 ATS as favorites since 2011

Toledo has won back-to-back games, including a 45-44 overtime victory over the Navy Midshipmen as 9.5-point home favorites last Saturday, while going OVER the betting total in each of those contests.  The Rockets have been relying heavily on their ground game recently, as senior David Fluellen and freshman Kareem Hunt gained 160 and 127 rushing yards respectively last week.  The program leads the country in fewest sacks allowed—giving up just three through the first seven games of the season.  Toledo is 1-2 SUATS as road underdogs of three points or less the last two-plus seasons.

The Rockets rank fourth in the MAC in total offense, while sitting sixth in total defense, which can’t be ignored when making your college football predictions in Week 9.  Fluellen leads the conference and ranks third in the country in rushing with 1,006 yards.  It’s important to point out that the team is 8-1 at home and 6-6 in neutral/road games under the direction of head coach Matt Campbell.  Of the 46 players listed on the current offensive and defensive two-deep charts, 22 are freshmen or sophomores.

Bowling Green had its three-game winning streak snapped last time out, as it suffered a 21-20 defeat to the Mississippi State Bulldogs as 11.5-point road underdogs on Oct. 12, while going UNDER The betting total for a fifth consecutive contest.  The Falcons have dropped three of four meetings with the Rockets under the direction of head coach Dave Clawson, which is important to consider when looking over the college football odds page.  At 3-0 in MAC play, the team has won its first three league games for the first time since 2005.  Bowling Green is 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS as favorites over the last two-plus seasons.

The Falcons returned nine starters on defense and eight more on offense from the 2012 team—accounting for a collective 396 career starts.  Bowling Green has outscored opponents 104-78 in the first half of games, but 108-42 in the second half.  In its four wins, the squad has scored on 24-of-26 trips inside the red zone.

Sports bettors will likely back the Falcons due to their 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 conference games.

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