Ivy League: Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs

Dartmouth Big Green AT Yale Bulldogs
Feb 25, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line:  Yale -13
Current Line:  Yale -12
Opening Total: 126.5
Current Total:  126
Opening Moneyline:  Yale -900 / Dart +650
Current Moneyline:  Yale -900 / Dart +650

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Yale are big favorites over Dartmouth

Tonight’s game brings together the struggling Dartmouth Big Green (5-19) against the Yale Bulldogs.  Dartmouth has dropped their last 7 games, by an average of 16 points per game.  Those losses include Yale, Brown, Princeton, Pennsylvania, Cornell and Columbia (twice) – all conference opponents, which has rendered them with a 1-9 Ivy League record, and leaves them alone at the cellar of Ivy League standings.  Yale has a 5-5 record in the Ivy league, sure to improve to 6-5 tonight against the woeful Big Green.  Columbia is currently 4th in the Ivy League conference standings.

Dartmouth hasn’t been close in most of their games and they have a double digit negative point differential of -10.8.  They only score 58.6 a game, and give up 69.3.  Yale is slightly positive despite being .500, with a +1.0 differential, scoring 67.4 and giving up 66.3.  The combinative total of the teams offensive output is 125.9, right in line with the total set by college basketball oddsmakers.

Some betting trends:

Dartmout is 0-5 SU in their last 5 on the road and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against Yale.  Dartmouth is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road at Yale and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against the Bulldogs.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Yale’s last 7 games and Yale is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home.  Yale is 8-1 SU in their last 9 against Dartmouth and the total has gone OVER in 7 of Yale’s last 10 games against Dartmouth.  Yale is 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against Dartmouth and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Yale’s last 5 games at home against the Big Green.

As one would expect from a team that only averages 57.6 points per game, there are no standout scorers on Dartmouth’s roster.  They have a 9 man rotation which features 5 players averaging between 6.5 points per game and 8.7 (Kirk Crecco, 6.5; Ronnie Dixon, 7.0; R.J. Griffin, 8.5; Jabari Trotter, 8.5; David Rufful, 8.7).  David Rifful is arguably the best player on Dartmouth, as he averages a team high 8.7 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game, as well as 1.5 steals.  The sad truth, however, is that Rifful would probably not even start on most teams, Yale included.  He has scored in double figures ten times this year, and in those 10 games, Dartmouth has won 4 of them.  So it would be safe to say that Rifful is a key to Dartmouth having any chance to win.  If he could get off and have one of his better games of the year, Dartmouth could at least cover the spread.

Yale is led by big man 6’10” junior forward Greg Mangano.  Mangano puts up 16.0 points per game, grabs 9.7 rebounds per game, and blocks nearly 3 shots a game.  His interior presence gives most teams immense trouble, as few teams can find someone to matchup with Mangano’s size.  The problem for Yale is that there are not enough other players creating mismatches or playing significantly well enough for Yale to be much more than a middle of the road Ivy League ballclub.  Mangano will have his way with Pennsylvania.  It will be up to Clive Weeden to slow down Mangano, and he probably won’t slow him down much.

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