Denver Nuggets Player Projection Prop Bets

How will Melo's situation affect his stats and that of his teammates?
Things are a-brewin’ in Denver, with all talking about where Carmelo Anthony will play next.  Frustrated with the lack of changes in personnel from year to year, Carmelo has said he wants out of Denver, and it appears his likely destinations are either New Jersey or New York.  How will that affect Melo himself, and his teammates?  Can these variables be accounted for when betting on the Nuggets’ players?  This article will take a look at those questions and more, as we evaluate the Nuggets Player Prop bets from Bodog.

Carmelo Anthony Over/Under PPG 27.5

Last season, Melo averaged 28.2.  In the two seasons prior to last, however, he averaged less than 26 a game.  So the question is:  Has Melo really improved or was last season a fluke?  I’m going to have to say that he has really improved.  However, calling this bet is still difficult to do, because of the variable of Melo being traded.  While I do think there’s a pretty good chance Melo averages more than 27.5, it is too dicey and I probably would advise not betting on this one.

Chancey Billups Over/Under PPG 17.7

Over.  A big variable to consider in this bet, even aside from the possibility of Melo being traded, is the chance that back up Ty Lawson sees an increased role this season.  Still, though, Billups averaged 19.5 last season, and 17.9 the year before last.  Moreover, if Melo is moved, as it seems very possible, Billups role will increase further.

Chauncey Billups Over/Under APG 6.5

Under.  Billups did not average more than 6 last season, and Lawson might shift Billups over to SG some more this season, which will only further hurt Billups’ assist production.  This is an easy ‘under.’

Al Harrington Over/Under PPG 16.0

Over.  Harrington promises to get a lot of looks with Kenyon Martin out in the early going, as well as Birdman possibly missing some time.  Because Harrington averaged more than 16 last year, and he is now in a position to have to shoot even more, this is a pretty easy ‘over,’ I think.  In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Harrington in the 18.5-20.0 ppg range.

JR Smith Over/Under 15.5  ppg

This is another bet I advise staying away from.  JR Smith is such a headache that he can go into George Karl’s doghouse at any time.  15.5 is about exactly what he averaged last year, and he is always CAPABLE of putting up 20+ ppg, but he is a headcase and very unpredictable.  To gamble on such a player would be just gambling, not based on any realistic projections.

Nenê Over/Under 13.3 ppg

Over.  Easiest over of the entire Nuggets set so far.  He averaged 14.8 last year, 16.1 the year before, and this year he is starting the season with Kenyon Martin and Birdman injured.  With the likely hood that Nene plays 36-38 mpg, more than his 33 last year, there is absolutely no reason for him to average less than 13.3 ppg.  In fact he will probably average around 16 a game.

Will Carmelo be traded before the end of the season? YES -190, NO +155

Who knows.  Only a fool would make this bet.  New York and New Jersey have yet to assemble a package that has enticed Denver to pull the trigger, but with his contract expiring, there are two ways they could go:  either a) let it expire and sign a FA in the summer or b) try to get something back before losing him.  Still, there is really know way to know which way Denver is going to go with this one.  Pointless bet to make when there are much better wagers on the board.

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