College Football Week 5 Picks: New Mexico State Aggies vs. LSU Tigers

New Mexico State Aggies vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, 9/27/14, 7:30 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  LSU -42.5
Current Betting Line:  LSU -43
Opening Total:  54.5
Current Total:  55.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The LSU Tigers are 2-4 ATS as favorites of 31 or more points since 2012
The LSU Tigers are 2-4 ATS as favorites of 31 or more points since 2012

New Mexico State has dropped back-to-back games, including a 38-35 setback to New Mexico as four-point home underdogs last Saturday, while going OVER the betting total for a third consecutive contest.  The Aggies are being led offensively by the play of quarterback Tyler Rogers, who has completed 97 of 158 passes for 1,056 yards and nine touchdowns with six interceptions, which is important to consider when making your Week 5 college football picks.  New Mexico State is 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of 21.5 or more points the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 5-1 in that situation.

The Aggies need to do a better job in stopping the run if they wish to cover this number, which can’t be ignored when looking over the college football odds page, as they’ve allowed a combined 776 rushing yards in their last two affairs.  New Mexico State has a major weapon in sophomore Teldrick Morgan, who has caught 31 passes for 464 yards—ranking seventh nationally in those respective categories.

LSU will play its final non-conference game of the regular season Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing 34-29 defeat to the Mississippi State Bulldogs last Saturday.  The Tigers lead the country with 48 straight non-conference regular season wins, including a perfect 3-0 mark under Les Miles.  It’s also important to point out that the team is 23-1 SU under Miles following a loss.  LSU is 6-0 SU and 2-4 ATS as favorites of 31 or more points since 2012, with the OVER going 5-0-1 in that situation.

The Tigers have played 17 true freshmen through the first four weeks of the 2014 campaign, with such players accounting for nine of the team’s 18 touchdowns scored so far.  LSU owns a perfect 35-0 SU all-time record against current members of the Sun Belt Conference, which could lead directly to the defense shutting out an opponent for the third time this year.

Sports bettors will likely back the Tigers due to the Aggies being 4-12 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses.

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