College Football Week 12 Betting: #23 Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils

#23 Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils
Wallace Wade Stadium – Durham, North Carolina

Saturday, November 16, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Miami -3
Current Line: Miami -3 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 61 1/2
Current Total: 62
Opening Money Line: Miami -150 / Duke +130
Current Money Line: Miami -165 / Duke +145

Miami is a 3.5 point favorite on the road at Duke in a key ACC Coastal game.
Miami is a 3.5 point favorite on the road at Duke in a key ACC Coastal game.

With each team having either two or three games left, six of the seven teams in the ACC Coastal are still alive for the division title. Virginia Tech leads the division with a 4-2 record. The Hokies host Maryland Saturday. Georgia Tech is 5-3 but is done with conference games after losing to Clemson Thursday night. Duke and Miami are both 3-2 in conference and play each other Saturday in Durham. Even North Carolina and Pittsburgh have outside shots at winning the division  but both need a lot of help with 3 conference losses.

Duke and Miami are both 7-2 this season and the winner will force at least a tie for the division depending on what Virginia Tech does against Maryland. Duke controls it’s own destiny and will win the division title if they win out. Miami leads the series 9-1 against Duke including 5-0 in Durham. The Hurricanes beat the Blue Devils 52-45 last season in Miami.

Miami is coached by Al Golden. Three weeks ago Miami was 7-0 and in the top 10 in the BCS standings. Two straight blowout losses at Florida State 41-14 and last week at home against Virginia Tech 42-24 sent the Hurricanes plummeting to #23. The Hurricanes have home wins over Florida Atlantic 34-6, Florida 21-16, Savannah State 77-7, Georgia Tech 45-30 and Wake Forest 24-21. Miami also won at South Florida 49-31 and 27-23 at North Carolina. The Hurricanes are 4-5 ATS and the total is 4-5  this season. Miami was a 4.5 point favorite against Virginia Tech and the total was 43.5.

Miami scored first against Vrginia Tech to take a 7-0 lead. However, the Hokies took control of the game with 21 straight points. Virginia Tech would take a 28-14 lead into halftime. Miami would pull to within 23-24 going into the fourth. The Hokies scored an early fourth quarter touchdown to make it 42-24. Neither team would score again. The Hokies had lost two straight games coming into the Miami game. Virginia Tech scored 21 of their points on short drives set up by two special teams turnovers and a blocked punt. The Hokies had 549 total yards including 366 passing. The Hurricanes had 352 total yards including 324 passing yards. Virginia Tech had 11 penalties for 71 yards. Miami had the only two turnovers of the game.

Miami is outscoring teams 35-123 this season. The Hurricanes are #32 nationally in scoring and #39 in points allowed. Miami is averaging 446.3 total yards including 267 passing yards and 179.3 rushing yards. The Hurricanes are 57th or better nationally in all three categories. Miami is allowing 387.6 yards per game on defense including 233.3 passing yards per game and 154.2 rushing yards. Miami is +3 in turnovers with 21 takeaways. The Hurricanes are averaging 44 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 42. Miami is 44/122 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 62/133. Miami has forced 25 sacks and allowed 11 this season. The Hurricanes are 31/40 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns and opponents are 25/31 with 17 touchdowns. Miami has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season and has allowed one pick six this season.

Miami quarterback Stephen Morris has completed 58.9% of his passes for 1,979 yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Back-up Ryan Williams could see a few snaps and has completed 71% of his passes for 369 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Duke Johnson has 145 carries, 920 yards with 6 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 77 yards. He is out for the season with a broken ankle. Dallas Crawford has 77 carries for 377 yards with 10 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 91 yards with a touchdown grab. Gus Edwards has 36 carries for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back Eduardo Clements has 20 carries for 126 yards.

Receiver Allan Hurns has 37 catches, 732 yards and 5 touchdowns along with 13 rushing yards. Stacy Coley has 20 catches, 395 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with a kick return for a touchdown. Clive Walford has 26 catches, 313 yards and 2 touchdowns.   Herb Waters has 19 catches, 290 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 carries, 58 yards and rushing touchdown.  Phillip Dorsett  has 13 catches, 272 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is doubtful with a knee injury after missing the last three games. Three offensive linemen are out for the season or indefinitely.

Duke is coached by David Cutcliffe. The program has never gone to bowl games in consecutive years before this year. The Blue Devils are already bowl eligible thanks to a current 5 game winning streak.  Duke lost their first two ACC games of the year at home to Georgia Tech 38-14 and Pittsburgh 58-55. The Blue Devils have home wins over North Carolina Central 45-0, Troy 38-31, Navy 35-7, and last week against North Carolina State 38-20, along with road wins at Memphis 28-14, Virginia 35-22, and Virginia Tech 13-10. Duke is 7-2 ATS and the total is 4-5 this season. The Blue Devils have covered 4 straight games. Duke was a 10.5 point favorite against NC State and the total was 56.5.

Duke took a 10-0 lead at halftime against NC State. The Wolfpack opened the third quarter with 13 straight points to take a 3 point lead. The Blue Devils regained the lead 17-13 with a 100 yards kickoff return from DeVon Edwards. In the fourth quarter, NC State took a 20-17 lead with 6:37 left. Duke would close the game on a 21-0 run, including  two pick sixes of 25 and 45 yards by Edwards to win 38-20. The Blue Devils had 321 total yards and 12 first downs. The Wolfpack had 412 total yards including 164 rushing yards. Each team had four turnovers.

Duke is outscoring teams 33-22 this season. The Blue Devils are #43 in scoring nationally and #30 in points allowed. Duke is averaging 409.3 yards per game on offense, including 243.4 passing and 165.9 rushing yards. The Blue Devils allow 386.8 total yards per game on defense, including 219.6 passing and 167.2 rushing yards. Duke is #39 in pass defense nationally. The Blue Devils are even in turnovers with 18 takeaways and giveaways. Duke averages 40 penalty yards per game and opponents average 51. The Blue Devils are 58/142 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 62/167. Duke has forced 17 sacks and allowed 12 this season. The Blue Devils are 32/39 scoring in the red zone along with 27 touchdowns and opponents are 20/28 with 16 touchdowns. Duke has 2 punt returns for touchdowns, 2 pick sixes, and a kick return for a touchdown, and has allowed a punt return for a touchdown and 2 pick sixes.

Duke uses two quarterbacks. Brandon Connette has completed 63.4% of his passes for 1,128 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, along with 79 carries for 283 yards and 8 touchdowns. Anthony Boone has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,061 yards with 5 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 39 carries, 111 yards and 4 touchdowns. Boone has take most of the snaps the last four games. Back-up quarterback Thomas Sirk is out indefinitely with a torn Achilles’ tendon, but hasn’t taken a snap this season.

Running back Jela Duncan has 75 carries, 387 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 52 yards.  Josh Snead has 59 carries for 342 yards, along with 3 touchdowns. Juwan Thompson and Shaquille Powell will each get some carries and catches. Each has a rushing touchdown. Little used running back Eric Adams is questionable with an upper body injury.

Receiver Jamison Crowder has 67 catches, 903 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 39 rushing yards and a touchdown. Crowder also has 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Braxton Deaver has 24 catches, 338 and 4 touchdowns. Brandon Braxton has 27 catches, 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. Max McCaffrey has 20 catches for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns. Isaac Blakeney has 13 catches, 160 yards and 4 touchdowns. Four defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Miami is 10-2 ATS after allowing 450 total yards or more, 4-1 after a straight up loss, and after rushing for 100 yards or less, 7-3 against teams with winning home records, and in November, 9-4 in road games, 2-6 after allowing more than 40 points, 1-4 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 1-5 after a double digit home loss, 0-4 in ACC games, overall and on grass.

Duke is 4-0 ATS in ACC games, after a straight up win, overall and on grass, 4-1 against teams with winning road records, 12-5 at home, 2-5 against teams with winning records, and 1-4 in November.

Miami is reeling after blowout losses to rivals Florida State and Virginia Tech. For Duke, the football team is having consistent success for the first time since Steve Spurrier was the coach in the late 80’s. The Blue Devils have a really good shot at winning the ACC Coastal and taking on undefeated Florida State in the ACC Championship game. The only question is if the Blue Devils are ready to make that leap. I say yes, and it starts with a mild upset at home over Miami.

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