College Football Betting Preview: #7 Michigan State Spartans at #3 Oregon Ducks

#7 Michigan State Spartans at #3 Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, Oregon

Saturday, September 6, 2014, 6:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Oregon -11
Current Line: Oregon -12
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 56 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -425 / Michigan State +350
Current Money Line: Oregon -425 / Michigan State +350

Oregon is a 12 point favorite at home against Michigan State in a battle of top ten teams.
Oregon is a 12 point favorite at home against Michigan State in a battle of top ten teams.

Two top ten teams meet Saturday in Eugene as the Oregon Ducks meet the Michigan State Spartans. The loser might be eliminated from contention for the four team playoff in the second game of the season. This is the fifth time these two teams have played and each has won twice at home. Michigan State won the last meeting in 1999 in East Lansing. The Ducks will complete the home and home next year at the Spartans.

Both Michigan State and Oregon opened the season last week with blowout wins over FCS schools at home. Michigan State beat Jacksonville State 45-7 last Friday. Oregon beat South Dakota 62-13 Saturday.

Michigan State is coached by Mark Dantonio. The Spartans were 34 point favorites against Jacksonville State last week and the total was 49. Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook threw three first quarter touchdown passes including ones of 71 and 64 yards. The Spartans would expand the lead to 38-0 at halftime. Jacksonville State finally got on the board early in the third, but the Spartans answered to make it 45-7. Neither team would score again.

Michigan State had 565 total yards including 354 passing yards. The Spartans held the Gamecocks to 244 total yards including 22 rushing yards. Jacksonville State had 3 turnovers and 7 penalties for 64 yards. Michigan State had 25 first downs to 14 for JSU. The Gamecocks were 6/16 on third and fourth down conversions and the Spartans were 7/14.

Cook completed 12 of 13 passes for 285 yards with 3 touchdowns. Jeremy Langford had 13 carries for 57 yards. Nick Hill had 11 carries for 42 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Tony Lippett had 4 catches for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Oregon is coached by Mark Helfrich. The Ducks failed to cover the 52 point spread against South Dakota and the game went over the 71.5 total. Oregon took a 21-3 lead at the end of the first quarter. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota threw two touchdown passes of 62 yards and 41 yards in the first. The Ducks would expand the lead to 41-13 in the second quarter. Oregon added 21 points in the second half to complete the rout.

Oregon had 673 total yards including 380 passing and 293 rushing yards. South Dakota had 370 total yards including 172 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover. Oregon had 9 penalties for 64 yards. The Ducks had 32 first downs to 19 for the Coyotes. South Dakota was 7/19 on third and fourth down conversions, and Oregon was 7/9.

Mariota completed 14 of 20 passes for 267 yards with 3 touchdowns, and also rushed for 43 yards and a touchdown. Running back Byron Marshall had 8 carries for 90 yards, plus 8 catches for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns. Royce Freeman had 10 carries for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns. Charles Nelson had a 50 yard punt return for a touchdown in the third quarter.

Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-12.

Oregon is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. win, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game, 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

This will be a match-up of Oregon’s explosive offense and Michigan State’s stout defense. Oregon is tough at home but Michigan State will not be intimidated. Twelve points seems like a lot between two very good teams even if Michigan State does have to travel a long distance.

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