College Football Betting Preview: #20 Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns

#20 Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 8, 2016, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Cotton Bowl – Dallas, Texas
Opening Line: Oklahoma -10 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma -11 1/2
Opening Total: 72
Current Total: 73 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -400 / Texas +325
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -440 / Texas +350

Oklahoma and Texas meet in the annual Red River Showdown in Dallas. Both teams are 2-2 this season.
Oklahoma and Texas meet in the annual Red River Showdown in Dallas. Both teams are 2-2 this season.

Both the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are 2-2 as they meet in their annual Red River Showdown in Dallas Saturday. Both teams were ranked in the top ten at one point this season but some disappointing losses sent them out of the rankings. Oklahoma is 1-0 in the Big 12 and Texas is 0-1.

Texas leads the series 47-38-4 against Oklahoma. The teams have split the last ten meetings with each team claiming five victories. Last year, Texas upset Oklahoma 24-17. It was the only regular season loss for the Sooners as they qualified for the playoff.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners lost at Houston 33-23 and at home against Ohio State 45-24. Both those teams are in the top five nationally.  The Sooners have a home win over Louisiana-Monroe 59-17 and last week on the road at TCU 52-46. The Sooners led that game 49-24 going into the fourth and held on for dear life.  Oklahoma was a 3.5 point underdog against TCU and the total was 66.5. Oklahoma is 1-3 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.

Texas is coached by Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have home wins over Notre Dame 50-47 in double overtime and UTEP 41-7. Texas lost at California 50-43 and Oklahoma State 49-31 last week. Texas had four extra points blocked in the first half against OSU and the Cowboys broke open a close game in the second half.  The Longhorns were 2.5 point underdogs against Oklahoma State  and the total was 68. Texas is 2-2 ATS and the total is 3-1.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 40-35 this season. The Sooners are #31 in scoring and #105 in points allowed. The Sooners average 493 yards per game on offense including 294 passing and 199 rushing yards. On defense, Oklahoma allows 429 yards per game including 299 passing and 131 rushing yards. Oklahoma is -4 in turnovers with 7 giveaways. The Sooners average 45 penalty yards per game and opponents average 63 per game. Oklahoma is 24/55 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 27/69. The Sooners have forced 9 sacks and allowed 13 this season. Oklahoma is 15/17 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns and opponents are 12/14 with 7 touchdowns.

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown for 1,067 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He has 33 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Back-up Austin Kendall played the second half against ULM and threw for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Running back Joe Mixon has 44 carries for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, and also has 12 catches for 162 yards. Samaje Perine has 50 carries for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns along with 7 catches for 69 yards. Abdul Adams has 18 carries for 91 yards. Daniel Brooks is questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Receiver Dede Westbrook has has 24 catches for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mark Andrews has 11 catches for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns. Nick Basquine has 7 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown.  A.D. Miller has 7 catches for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Texas is outscoring teams 41-38 this season. Texas is #23 in scoring but #116 in points allowed nationally. The Longhorns average 517 yards per game on offense including 256 passing and 261 rushing yards. Texas is #49 or better in all three categories and is in the top 15 nationally in total and rushing offense. On defense, the Longhorns allow 429 yards per game including 275 passing and 154 rushing yards per game. Texas is -4 in turnovers with 5 giveaways. The Longhorns average 77 penalty yards and opponents average 71 per game. Texas is 29/77 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/63. The Longhorns have forced 14 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Texas is 17/20 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns, and opponents are 12/14 with 9 touchdowns.

Freshman quarterback Shane Buechele has completed 65.5% of his passes for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 30 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown. Tyrone Swoopes comes in for a few snaps in the big 18-Wheeler package. He has thrown for 66 yards and an interception, but has 27 carries for 112 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.

Running back D’onta Foreman has 62 carries for 436 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a rib injury. Chris Warren III has 62 carries for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Running backs Kirk Johnson and Roderick Bernard are also out indefinitely with knee injuries. Kyle Porter will get more carries without Warren.

Receiver John Burt has 14 catches for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jacorey Warrick has 13 catches for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. Former quarterback Jerrod Heard has 14 catches for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns. Armanti Foreman has 13 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown. Jake Oliver has 13 catches for 129 yards.

Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in October, 7-1 in Big 12, 4-1 after allowing 40 points or more, 7-3 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 3-7 after passing for 280 yards or more and after gaining 450 total yards or more, 1-4 overall, 1-5 on grass, and 0-5 in neutral site games.

Texas is 5-2 in neutral site games, 2-5 in October, 3-8 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 2-7 after allowing 280 passing yards and 1-5 on grass. The Longhorns are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 games against the Sooners.

These two rivals have played some classic defensive struggles in the past. This will not be one of those contests. Both teams are awful on defense and have explosive offenses. If there is anything less than 100 points scored in this game I will be a little disappointed. I think Oklahoma wins but it will be a lot closer than Vegas thinks.

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