College Football Betting Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders at #17 Oklahoma Sooners

Texas Tech Red Raiders at #17 Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma
Saturday, October 24, 2015, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Opening Line: Oklahoma -14
Current Line: Oklahoma -14 1/2
Opening Total: 77
Current Total: 73 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -600 / Texas Tech +460
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -650 / Texas Tech +475

Oklahoma is a 14.5 point favorite against Texas Tech Saturday in a key Big 12 contest.
Oklahoma is a 14.5 point favorite against Texas Tech Saturday in a key Big 12 contest.

In 2013, the Texas Tech Red Raiders named walk-on freshman Baker Mayfield the starting quarterback. Despite putting up good numbers, Texas Tech did not offer him a scholarship. He transferred to Oklahoma and after sitting out last year, Mayfield was named the starting quarterback for the Sooners this season. Now, Texas Tech travels to Oklahoma Saturday. The Red Raiders are 5-2 overall and 2-2 in Big 12 play. Oklahoma is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in conference.

The Sooners lead the series 16-6 against the Red Raiders, including 9-2 in Norman. Oklahoma has won three straight games in the series including 42-30 in Lubbock last year.

Texas Tech is coached by Kliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have a home loss to TCU 55-52 and a neutral site loss to Baylor 63-35 in Arlington. Texas Tech has home wins over Sam Houston State 59-45, UTEP 69-20, and Iowa State 66-31, plus road wins at Arkansas 35-24 and last week at Kansas 30-20.

Texas Tech was a 33 point favorite against Kansas and the total was 74. Texas Tech took a 20-0 lead at halftime and still led 23-6 at the end of the third. The Jayhawks scored two touchdowns in the fourth to pull within 23-20. The Red Raiders ran back a 27 yard pick six to seal the 10 point victory. It was a lot harder than it should have been against one of the worst teams in the country. The two teams combined for over 1,000 yards in offense, but also combined for five turnovers. Texas Tech is 4-2-1 ATS and the total is 5-2 this season.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. Oklahoma lost their only game of the season to rival Texas 24-17 in Dallas. The Sooners have home wins over Akron 41-3, Tulsa 52-38 and West Virginia 44-24, along with a road win at Tennessee 31-24 in double overtime. Last week, Oklahoma rebounded from a poor performance against Texas with a 55-0 thrashing on the road at Kansas State.

Oklahoma easily covered the 3.5 point spread at Kansas State and the total was 52.5. Despite mechanical difficulties on the Sooners’ team plane delaying their trip to Manhattan by almost 8 hours, Oklahoma dominated in all phases of the game. The Sooners had 568 total yards and held the Wildcats to 110 total yards. Kansas State had 3 turnovers. Mayfield threw for 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS and the total is 3-3 ATS this season.

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Texas Tech is outscoring teams 49-37 this season. The Red Raiders are #3 in scoring but #113 in points allowed nationally out of 128 teams. Texas Tech averages 624 yards per game on offense, including 427 passing and 197 rushing. The Red Raiders are #2  in both total and passing offense. Even the rushing attack is #37 nationally. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 554 total yards including 290 passing and 264 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #114 or worse in all three categories. Tech has forced 15 turnovers and has 9 of their own. The Red Raiders average 62 penalty yards per game and opponents average 64 per game. Texas Tech is 61/117 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 59/123. The Red Raiders have forced seven sacks and have allowed seven this season. Texas Tech is 27/31 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns and opponents are 26/32 with 19 touchdowns. The Red Raiders have two pick sixes and a kick return for a touchdown this season.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 63.8% of his passes for 2,618 yards with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, plus 47 carries for 234 yards and 6 touchdowns. Back-up Davis Webb has two rushing touchdowns, and has thrown for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Webb has thrown for over 5,400 yards with 46 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in his three year career at Texas Tech. He split time with Mayfield in 2013.

Running back DeAndre Washington has 106 carries for 743 yards and 7 touchdowns along with 20 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown. Justin Stockton has 42 carries for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Receiver Jakeem Grant has 49 catches for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has a rushing touchdown, a kick return for a touchdown, and threw a touchdown pass. Devin Lauderdale has 21 catches for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Reginald Davis has 19 catches for 358  yards and 5 touchdowns.  Ian Sadler has 15 catches for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Tony Brown, Cameron Batson, Zach Austin and Jonathan Giles will also get some catches. Giles has 3 touchdown catches. Including the running backs, ten total receivers have double digit receptions this season.

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Oklahoma is outscoring teams 40-19 this season. The Sooners are #11 in scoring and #24 in points allowed nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 489 yards per game on offense including 330 passing and 159 rushing yards. The Sooners are in the top 17 nationally in both total and passing offense. However, Oklahoma is #82 nationally in rushing. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 322 total yards per game including 152 passing and 170 rushing yards. Oklahoma is #9 in pass defense and #23 in total defense nationally. The Sooners have forced ten turnovers but have nine of their own this season. Oklahoma averages 74 penalty yards and opponents average 64. The Sooners are 38/92 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 41/109. Oklahoma has forced 21 sacks and allowed 19 this season. The Sooners are 26/29 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns, and opponents are 14/18 with 9 touchdowns. Oklahoma has two defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,575 yards with 19 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has rushed for 166 yards with 4 touchdowns on 71 carries. Back-up Trevor Knight has thrown for 104 yards with an interception, and has 25 rushing yards.

Running back Samaje Perine has 93 carries for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 9 catches and a touchdown. Joe Mixon has 48 carries for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Sterling Shepard has 30 catches for 499 yards and 5 touchdowns. Dede Westbrook has 26 catches for 392 yards and 2 touchdowns. Durron Neal has 20 catches for 341 yards and a touchdown. Mark Andrews has 9 catches for 157 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS after a win, after failing to cover and after gaining 450 total yards or more, 7-2-1 overall, 6-2-1 after passing for 280 yards or more, 3-1-1 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 5-2 in Big 12 games, 3-7 in road games, after allowing more than 450 total yards, and 1-5 against teams with winning home records. The last four games in this series have gone over the total. The over is 4-1 in Norman between these teams.

Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS after a straight up win of 20 points or more and after allowing 20 points or less, 5-2 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less and passing for more than 280 yards, 6-14 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 2-5  after gaining 450 total yards or more, 3-8 in October, 1-5 after after a cover, and 0-4 against teams with winning road records. The home team is 7-2 ATS in this series recently. The Sooners have covered four of the last five times against the Red Raiders in Norman.

Texas Tech is the same old team that has a very explosive offense, but the defense is still atrocious and they can’t really be taken seriously as a Big 12 contender because of it. Oklahoma dominated on defense against Kansas State, but Tech is a different story. I like the Sooners to win comfortably in a high scoring shootout.

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