Big 12 Football Betting Preview: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 24, 2015, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Royal Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas
Opening Line: Texas -3 1/2
Current Line: Texas -7 (-105)
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: Texas -185 / KSU +165
Current Money Line: Texas -270 / KSU +230

Texas hosts Kansas State Saturday.
Texas hosts Kansas State Saturday. The Longhorns are 7 point favorites.

The 3-3 Kansas State Wildcats and 2-4 Texas Longhorns meet in a key Big 12 contest Saturday in Austin. Torrential rainfall is expected during most if not all of the game. Kansas State is 0-3 in conference and Texas is 1-2. Both teams need a win to help with bowl eligibility.

Kansas State leads the series 9-6 against Texas, but the Longhorns are 5-3 in Austin. The Wildcats have won six of the last seven against the Longhorns including a 23-0 shutout last year in Manhattan. Texas won 31-21 in Austin in 2013 to snap a five game losing streak against Kansas State.

Kansas State is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats have home wins over South Dakota 34-0 and Louisiana Tech 39-33, and a road win at UTSA 30-3. Kansas State has a road loss at Oklahoma State 36-34 and home losses to TCU 52-45 and last week against Oklahoma 55-0.

Kansas State was a 3.5 point underdog against Oklahoma and the total was 52.5. The Sooners had lost to Texas the week before in a very lackluster performance. Also, Oklahoma’s team plane had mechanical difficulties causing a delay of almost 8 hours in the trip to Manhattan. The Sooners didn’t check into their hotel until after midnight. Regardless, the angry Sooners took out their frustration on the Wildcats. Oklahoma had 568 total yards to 110 for Kansas State. Kansas State had 3 turnovers and only 7 first downs. Oklahoma led 35-0 at halftime. It was the third straight loss for Kansas State, all in conference. The Wildcats are 3-3 ATS and the total is 4-2 this season.

Texas is coached by Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have a home win over Rice 42-28 and over rival Oklahoma 24-17. The Longhorns have narrow home losses to California 45-44 and Oklahoma State 30-27. Texas has road losses at Notre Dame 38-3 and TCU 50-7. The Longhorns were off last week.

The Longhorns were 16 point underdogs against Oklahoma and the total was 60. Texas quickly jumped out to a 14-0 lead. The Sooners pulled to within 17-10 by the end of the third. However, they would get no closer as Texas scored early in the fourth to expand the lead to 24-10. Oklahoma scored with 8 minutes to go. After a Texas punt, Oklahoma took over with 6:05 left, but two sacks ended hopes of a comeback. Texas took over with 3:33 left and ran out the clock. Texas had 368 total yards to 278 for Oklahoma. The longhorns are 2-4 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season.

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Kansas State is outscoring teams 30.3-29.8 this season. The Wildcats are averaging 325 total yards a game on offense including 166 passing and 160 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #120 in total offense and #112 in passing nationally out of 128 teams. On defense, K-State is allowing 425 total yards including 298 passing and 126 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #119 in pass defense and #30 in rush defense. K-State is #92 in total defense. Kansas State has forced seven turnovers and has eight of their own. Kansas State averages 47 penalty yards per game and opponents average 57. The Wildcats are 34/82 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/100. KSU has forced 17 sacks and allowed 17 this season. The Wildcats are 27/30 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns and opponents are 18/21 with 13 touchdowns. Kansas State has a kick return for a touchdown this season, and has allowed 2 pick sixes.

Quarterback Joe Hubener has completed 45.5% of his passes for 866 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 73 carries for 240 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Hubener was injured against Oklahoma State and receiver Kody Cook had to come in as the emergency quarterback. Cook also came in against Oklahoma in the blowout. He has thrown for 128 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, along with 32 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown. Hubener is probable for undisclosed reasons, but Cook could see action as well. Jesse Ertz was supposed to be the starter but is out indefinitely with a knee injury suffered in the first game of the season.  Another quarterback Jonathan Banks is out indefinitely with an illness.

Running back Justin Silmon has 60 carries for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with a catch. Charles Jones has 42 carries for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 82 yards. Winston Dimel has 21 carries for 50 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 80 yards.

Receiver Deante Burton has 15 catches for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dominique Heath has 15 catches for 192 yards and a touchdown. Kody Cook has 10 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kyle Klein has 10 catches for 110 yards. Six defensive backs are listed on the injury report.

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Texas is being outscored 35-25 this season. Texas is #94 or worse in both categories. The Longhorns average 344 yards per game on offense including 149 passing and 195 rushing yards. Texas is #108 or worse in total and passing offense out of 128 teams, and #38 in rushing. On defense, Texas is allowing 469 yards per game including 282 passing and 187 rushing yards. The Longhorns are #91 or worse in all defensive categories including points allowed.  Texas has forced eleven turnovers and has five of their own. The Longhorns average 71 penalty yards per game and opponents average 54. Texas is 33/93 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/81. The Longhorns have forced 7 sacks and allowed 17. Texas is 9/10 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns. Opponents are 23/25 with 17 touchdowns. Texas has a punt return for a touchdown plus 3 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Jerrod Heard has thrown for 661 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and rushed for 318 yards on 67 carries and 3 touchdowns. Tyrone Swoopes has thrown for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns, and has also rushed for 99 yards on 23 carries with 2 touchdowns.

Running back D’onta Foreman has 53 carries for 328 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 52 yards. Johnathan Gray has 76 carries for 285 yards with 3 touchdowns, plus 5 catches for 79 yards.

Receiver Daje Johnson has 14 catches for 201 yards. He is probable  with a concussion after missing the Oklahoma game.  John Burt has 11 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown.  Armanti Foreman has 10 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Johnson has 9 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.

Kansas State is 7-1 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 6-1 after allowing more than 40 points, 4-1 after an ATS loss and against teams with losing records, 23-6 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 17-5 after a straight up loss, 6-2 after scoring less than 20 points, 9-3 on fieldturf, 38-14-1 in Big 12 games, 26-10 after a straight up loss of more than 20 points, 7-3 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 35-15-1 in October, 15-7-1 in road games, and 1-4 against teams with losing home records. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in this series recently. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games against the Longhorns, including 4-1 in Austin.

Texas is 7-3 ATS after a bye week, 4-9 in October, 3-7 after allowing less than 20 points, 4-11 after an ATS win, 2-6 overall, and 0-4 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less. The under is 4-1 ATS in this series in Austin recently. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series in the last five.

I don’t think Kansas State is as bad as they appeared to be last week, and Texas certainly isn’t that good either. Neither team can score very much and the rain should make things worse. I think Kansas State steals a close win on the road in a very low scoring game.

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