College Football Betting Picks: Iowa State Cyclones at #3 TCU Horned Frogs

Iowa State Cyclones at #3 Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas

Saturday, December 6, 2014, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: TCU -32
Current Line: TCU -34 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 69
Opening Money Line: TCU -15000 / Iowa State +6000
Current Money Line: TCU -20000 / Iowa State +7500 

TCU looks to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title and posibly a berth in the college football playoffs with a win Saturday against Iowa State.
TCU looks to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title and posibly a berth in the college football playoffs with a win Saturday against Iowa State.

The 10-1 Texas Christian Horned Frogs can clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title with a win Saturday over the lowly 2-9 Iowa State Cyclones. However, TCU has bigger goals in mind as they are currently ranked #3 in the college football playoff standings ahead of even undefeated Florida State. TCU is tied with Baylor and Kansas State at 7-1 in conference. Baylor and Kansas State will play each other later in the day Saturday. If TCU wins against Iowa State, then the winner of that game will share the title with TCU. The Horned Frogs lost to the Bears but beat the Wildcats. Iowa State looks to play spoiler with the upset but the last place Cyclones have lost their first 8 conference games.

TCU leads the series 4-1 against Iowa State including 1-1 in Fort Worth.  The Horned Frogs won last year in Ames 21-17.

Iowa State is coached by Paul Rhoads. The Cyclones have wins at Iowa 20-17 and at home against Toledo 37-30. Iowa State has lost 5 straight games. The Cyclones have home losses to North Dakota State 34-14, Kansas State 32-28, Baylor 49-28, Oklahoma 59-14, Texas Tech 34-31 and last week against West Virginia 37-24. ISU has road losses at Oklahoma State 37-20, Texas 48-45 and Kansas 34-14. The Cyclones are 4-6-1 ATS  this season and the total is 5-6 this season. Iowa State was a 10 point underdog against West Virginia and the total was 62.5.

TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. The only loss for TCU came at Baylor 61-58. The Horned Frogs had a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. TCU has won 6 straight games since then. The Horned Frogs have home wins over Samford 48-14, Minnesota 30-7, Oklahoma 37-33, Oklahoma State 42-9, Texas Tech 82-27, and Kansas State 41-20. TCU has road wins at SMU 56-0, West Virginia 31-30, Kansas 34-30 and last week against Texas 48-10. The Horned Frogs are 9-2 ATS and the total is 8-3 this season. TCU was a 4.5 point favorite at Texas and the total was 53.5.

Iowa State is being outscored 37-25 this season. The Cyclones are #94 in scoring and #115 in points allowed out of 128 FBS teams. Iowa State is averaging 385 yards per game on offense including 257 passing and 128 rushing yards. The rushing game is #108 nationally. On defense, ISU is allowing 511 yards per game including 261 passing and 251 rushing yards. The Cyclones are #105 or worse in all three categories. Iowa State is even in turnovers with 14 takeaways. The Cyclones average 43 penalty yards per game and opponents average 56. ISU is 88/200 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 91/189. The Cyclones have 14 sacks and have allowed 28 sacks this season. Iowa State is 34/42 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns and opponents are 48/53 with 36 touchdowns. The Cyclones have a defensive and a special teams touchdown and have allowed one of each as well.

Iowa State quarterback Sam B. Richardson has completed 57.9% of his passes for 2,517 yards with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 121 carries for 435 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running back Aaron Wimberly has 130 carries for  569 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 23 catches for 201 yards and a touchdown. DeVondrick Nealy has 68 carries for 272 yards and a touchdown along with 18 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Allen Lazard has 43 catches for 577 yards and 3 touchdowns. D’Vario Montgomery has 40 catches for 563 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end E.J. Bibbs has 45 catches for 382 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is questionable for undisclosed reasons. Jarvis West has 41 catches for 286 yards and touchdown. West also threw a touchdown pass and has a punt return for a touchdown. Tad Ecby has only 7 catches for 226 yards with 3 touchdowns. Five defensive players, three offensive linemen, and 3 little used receivers are listed as questionable or out.

TCU is outscoring teams 46-22 this season. The Horned Frogs are #3 in scoring and #26 in points allowed nationally. TCU is averaging 526 yards per game on offense including 315 passing and 211 rushing. The Horned Frogs are #6 in total offense, #8 in passing and #36 in rushing nationally. On defense, TCU is allowing 371 yards per game including 251 passing and 120 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are #18 in rush defense and #95 in pass defense.  TCU is +18 in turnovers with 34 takeaways. The Horned Frogs average 59 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53.  TCU is 77/181 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 67/205. The Horned Frogs have forced 33 sacks and allowed 19 this season. TCU is 49/56 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns and opponents are 25/29 with 13 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs have 6 defensive and special teams touchdowns and have allowed 2 this season.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is a Heisman contender. He has completed 59.3% of his passes for 3,254 yards with 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 134 carries for 598 yards and 8 interceptions. Back-up quarterback Matt Joeckel is out indefinitely with a leg injury.

Running back Aaron Green has 98 carries for 750 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 11 catches. B.J. Catalon  has 98 carries for 493 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown. He also has a kick return for a touchdown. He is doubtful with an upper body injury. Trevorris Johnson has 39 carries for 222 yards and 4 touchdowns. Little used running back Shaun Nixon is also out indefinitely.

Receiver Josh Doctson has 50 catches for 808 yards and 8 touchdowns. Kolby Listenbee has 36 catches for 653 yards and 3 touchdowns. Deante’ Gray has has 30 catches for 499 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 7 carries for 83 rushing yards. He is probable for undisclosed reasons. Ty Slanina has 29 catches for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns. David Porter has 34 catches for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS after allowing more than 450 total yards, 1-3-1 against teams with winning records, and on grass, 1-4 after a double digit home loss, and after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 0-4 after a straight up loss, in Big 12 games, and overall, and 0-7 after allowing 280 passing yards or more.

TCU is 8-0 ATS on grass, 7-0 at home, 5-0 after allowing 20 points or less, 11-2 overall, 8-2 in Big 12 games and after a straight up win, 4-1 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 7-2 after a cover, 5-2 after scoring more than 40 points and a after a win by 20 points or more, 20-9 against teams with losing road records, and 1-4 in December.

TCU will look to get some style points against an inferior opponent in the last chance to impress the playoff committee. A few weeks ago, TCU barely slipped by Kansas but that was on the road. I think TCU rolls over Iowa State though, but 34.5 seems like a lot of points.

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