College Football Bedlam Betting Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys at #20 Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #20 Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma

Saturday, December 6, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Oklahoma -17
Current Line: Oklahoma -21
Opening Total: 60
Current Total: 60
Opening Money Line: Oklahoma -1250 / Oklahoma +750
Current Money Line: Oklahoma -1450 / Oklahoma State +850 

Oklahoma is a 21 point favorite against Bedlam rival Oklahoma State Saturday in Norman.
Oklahoma is a 21 point favorite against Bedlam rival Oklahoma State Saturday in Norman.

The 8-3 Oklahoma Sooners and 5-6 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet for the 109th time Saturday in their annual Bedlam game. While neither team is in contention for the Big 12 title, this game always means something to the passionate fans of both teams. Oklahoma is 5-3 in conference and in fourth place. Oklahoma State is  3-5 and in seventh place. The Cowboys need a win to become bowl eligible for the ninth straight season. Oklahoma has a slim chance of being picked for one of the major bowls.

Oklahoma leads the series 83-18-7, including 39-9-2 in Norman. Oklahoma has won 12 of the last 15 against OSU including 2 straight games in the series including 33-24 last year in Stillwater. The loss cost Oklahoma State the Big 12 title and a berth in a BCS game. This series dates back to 1904, three years before Oklahoma was granted statehood.

Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys started off the season 5-1 but have lost 5 straight games all by 21 points or more since then. OSU has home wins over Missouri State 40-23, UTSA 43-13, Texas Tech 45-35, and Iowa State 37-20, plus a road win at Kansas 27-20. The Cowboys have a loss to Florida State 37-31 in Arlington, Texas, road losses to TCU 42-9, Kansas State 48-14, and 2 weeks ago at Baylor 49-28, plus home losses to West Virginia 34-10 and Texas 28-7. OSU is 4-7 ATS and the total is 6-5 this season. The Cowboys were 33 point underdogs at Baylor and the total was 69.5.

Oklahoma is coached by Bob Stoops. The Sooners have a road loss at TCU 37-33 and at home to Kansas State 31-30 and Baylor 48-14. Oklahoma has home wins over Louisiana Tech 48-16, Tennessee 34-10 and Kansas 44-7 two weeks ago , a neutral site win over Texas 31-26 in Dallas, and road wins over Tulsa 52-7, West Virginia 45-33, Iowa State 59-17 and Texas Tech 42-30 . OU has won 2 straight games. The Sooners are 5-6 ATS and the total is 8-3 this season. Oklahoma was a 25 point favorite against Kansas and the total was 57.5.

Oklahoma State is being outscored 32-27 this season. OSU is #83 in scoring and #99 in points allowed out of 128 FBS teams. The Cowboys are averaging 370 total yards per game on offense, including 232 passing yards and 138 rushing yards. OSU is #95 in total offense and #101 in rushing nationally. On defense, the Cowboys are allowing 438 total yards per game on defense, including 155 rushing yards and 283 passing yards. OSU is #97 in total defense and #123 in pass defense. Oklahoma St is -5 in turnovers with 11 takeaways. The Cowboys are averaging 54 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 65. The Cowboys are 63/182 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 77/191. OSU has forced 29 sacks and allowed 35. The Pokes are 32/35 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns, and their opponents are 35/42 with 22 touchdowns. The Cowboys have 2 pick sixes and 2 kick returns for touchdowns, and have allowed 2 defensive and special teams touchdowns.

OSU has used three quarterbacks this season. J.W.  Walsh started the season but was injured in the second game and hasn’t played since. Daxx Garman took over as the starter until he missed the Baylor game with a concussion. The Cowboys removed the redshirt from freshman Mason Rudolph and he was impressive in a loss to Baylor. Garman is probable but Rudolph is expected to start against Oklahoma. Garman could see action as well. Garman has thrown for 2,041 yards with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Rudolph has thrown for 281 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Running back Desmond Roland has 153 carries for 579 yards and 8 touchdowns. Rennie Childs has 69 carries for 261 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver David Glidden has 39 catches for 549 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brandon Sheperd has 27 catches for 483 yards and 2 touchdowns. James Washington has 24 catches for 398 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tyreek Hill has world class speed. He has 25 catches for 259 yards and a touchdown, along with 99 carries for  496 yards and a touchdown. Hill also has 2 kick returns for touchdowns. Jhajuan Seales has 17 catches and 3 touchdowns.

Oklahoma is outscoring teams 39-24 this season. The Sooners are #10 in scoring and #37 in points allowed nationally. Oklahoma is averaging 486 yards per game on offense including 220 passing and 265 rushing yards. The Sooners are #20 total offense and #9 in rushing offense nationally. On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 382 yards per game including 273 passing and 109 rushing. The Sooners are #117 out of 128 teams in pass defense and #11 in rush defense. Oklahoma is even in turnovers with 18 takeaways. The Sooners average 49 penalty yards per game and opponents average 49 as well. Oklahoma is 71/164 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 81/201. The Sooners have forced 26 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Oklahoma is 42/52 scoring in the red zone with 36 touchdowns and opponents are 27/33 with 17 touchdowns. The Sooners have 3 pick sixes and 2 kick returns for touchdowns. Oklahoma has allowed 2 pick sixes and a fumble return for a touchdown this season.

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight is out with a concussion after miss the Kansas game as well. Redshirt freshman Cody Thomas will start against OSU. Knight  has completed 58.1% of his passes for 2,197 yards with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 66 carries for 340 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. Thomas has thrown for 222 yards with a touchdown and 4 interceptions, along with 15 carries fro 149 yards and a touchdown

Running back Samaje Perine has 214 carries for 1,428 yards and 19 touchdowns, plus 11 catches for 74 yards. In his last game against Kansas, Perine set and NCAA single game rushing record with 427 yards and 5 touchdowns. Alex Ross has 73 carries for 533 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ross also has 9 catches for 66 yards and 2 kick returns for touchdowns. Keith Ford has 58 carries for 293 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Sterling Shepard has 50 catches for 957 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is questionable with a groin injury and has missed the last 3 games. Durron Neal has 40 catches for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns. K.J. Young has 19 catches for 225 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Blake Bell has 13 catches for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury.

Oklahoma State is 10-2 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 36-17 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-4 against teams with winning home records, and in road games, 1-5 in Big 12 games, after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, after allowing 450 yards or more, overall and after a bye week, 1-6 after a straight up loss, and 1-7 against teams with winning records.

Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and after allowing 20 points or less, 4-1 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 8-3 in December, 18-7 against teams with losing road records, 5-2 after a cover, 7-3 after scoring more than 40 points and after a straight up win, 5-12 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 2-5 in Big 12 games and overall, and 1-4 after allowing less than 170 passing yards. The Sooners are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against the Cowboys including 4-1 in Norman.

This should be a high scoring game because neither defense is that great. Oklahoma has a strong run defense but the pass defense is terrible. The Cowboys showed signs of life with Rudolph at the helm against Baylor and were in the game midway through the third quarter. The Sooners are fully capable of winning by 3 touchdowns, but I think the Cowboys hang around the number.

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