College Basketball Civil War Betting Preview: Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers

Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers
Gill Coliseum – Corvallis, Oregon

Sunday, January 19, 2014, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Oregon -3
Current Line: Oregon -2 1/2
Opening Total: 163
Current Total: 161
Opening Money Line: Oregon -145 / Oregon State +125
Current Money Line: Oregon -145 / Oregon State +125

Oregon is a 2.5 point favorite against rival Oregon State Sunday night in Corvallis.
Oregon is a 2.5 point favorite against rival Oregon State Sunday night in Corvallis.

The Oregon Ducks opened the season 13-0, but have lost 3 straight games. The Ducks look to get back on track against Civil War rival the Oregon State Beavers who are 9-7 this season. Both teams are 1-3 in the Pac 12. Oregon State leads the series 184-155 including 99-62 in Corvallis. Oregon has won 3 straight games in the series including both meetings last season, 79-66 in Corvallis and 85-75 in Eugene. The two rivals will play again February 16 in Eugene.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses at Colorado, and at home to California and Stanford 82-80 last Sunday. Oregon has key home wins over San Francisco, Pacific, Cal Poly, Illinois (in Portland), UC-Irvine, and BYU, over Georgetown in South Korea, plus road wins at Ole Miss and Utah. The Ducks are 8-5-2 ATS and the total is 12-2 this season.

Oregon is outscoring teams 88-78 this season. The Ducks are #2 nationally in scoring, but #318 out of 351 teams in points allowed. Oregon is shooting 49.1% from the field and 41.2% from 3 point range. The Ducks are #14 or better in both categories. Oregon is #7 in free throw shooting nationally at 77.1% from the line. Duck opponents are shooting 43.8% from the field and 31.4% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 35.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.6. The Ducks average 16.1 assists, 12.8 turnovers, 8.1 steals and 3.5 blocks per game. Opponents average 12.4 assists, 13.9 turnovers, 5.9 steals and 3.9 blocks per game.

Ducks’ guard Joseph Young averages 18.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Mike Moser averages 14.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1 block per game. Guard Damyean Dotson averages 11.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists. Guard Jason Calliste averages 11 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists. Guard Johnathan Loyd averages 9.1 points, 1.7 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Forward Elgin Cook averages 8.3 points and 4.4 rebounds per game.  Forward Richard Amardi averages 7.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1 steal a game. Dominic Artis and Waverly Austin will also get significant minutes. Guard A.J. Lapray (hip) and forward Brian Crow (ankle) are both questionable Sunday.

Oregon State is coached by Craig Robinson. Oregon State has home losses to Coppin State, and California last Saturday 88-83. The Beavers have road losses at Depaul, to Akron and Hawaii in a tournament in Honolulu, Colorado and Utah. OSU has key home wins over Portland, George Mason in Honolulu, and Stanford, plus a road win at Maryland. The Beavers have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Oregon State is 6-6-1 ATS and the total is 7-6 this season.

Oregon State is outscoring teams 78-75 this season. The Beavers are shooting 49.7% from the field and 40.4% from 3 point range. Oregon State is in the top 20 nationally in both categories. The Beavers make 72.9% of their free throws. OSU opponents are shooting 43.6% from the field and 37.5% from 3 point range. The Beavers are #307 out of 351 teams in 3 point defense. Oregon State averages 34.1 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.2 per game. The Beavers average  15.1 assists, 13.3 turnovers, 5.7 steals, and 4.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 15.4 assists, 11.4 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 3.6 blocks per game.

OSU guard Roberto Nelson averages 21.4 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal per game. Forward Devon Collier averages 14.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game. Center Angus Brandt averages 12.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Forward Eric Moreland missed the first 12 games of the season due to a suspension but returned for Pac 12 play. He has averaged 9.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.8 blocks per game in four games so far this season. Guard Hallice Cooke averages 6.5 points, 2 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Challe Barton, Victor Robbins, Langston Morris-Walker, Olaf Schaftenaar, Malcolm Duvivier, Daniel Gomis, and Jarmel Reid will also get significant minutes in the rotation. None averages more than 4.6 points per game.

Oregon is 6-1-1 ATS in road games, 5-1-1 against teams with winning home records, 5-16-2 in Pac 12 games, 0-4 after a straight up loss, 0-3-1 after failing to cover, 0-5-1 overall, and 0-4-1 against teams with winning records. The road team is 3-0-1 ATS  in this series recently. The Ducks are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 against the Beavers. Oregon has covered in 5 of their last 6 trips to Corvallis.

Oregon State is 5-1 ATS after failing to cover, and against teams with winning road records, 12-4-2 after a straight up loss, 5-2-2 at home, 2-5 against teams with winning records, and 1-4 in Sunday games. The under is 6-2 in the last 8 in this series and 5-0 in the last five in Corvallis between the teams.

Both of these teams like to run, but neither plays defense that well. During their 3 game losing streak, Oregon is giving up just under 93 points a game. Yes, the Ducks score a lot of points, but you won’t many games giving up that many points. If Oregon can fix their defensive woes, then i like them to beat Oregon State for the fourth straight time. The over is a good play regardless.

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