College Basketball ACC Handicapping: #11 Duke Blue Devils at Boston College Eagles

#11 Duke Blue Devils at Boston College Eagles
Silvio O. Conte Forum – Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts

Saturday, February 8, 2014, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Duke -11
Current Line: Duke -10
Opening Total: 151 1/2
Current Total: 147 1/2
Opening Money Line: Duke -625 / BC +465
Current Money Line: Duke -600 / BC +450

Duke is a 10 point favorite on the road at Boston College Saturday.
Duke is a 10 point favorite on the road at Boston College Saturday.

The 18-5 Duke Blue Devils travel to the 6-16 Boston College Eagles Saturday. The Blue Devils are 7-3 in the ACC and tied with Pittsburgh for third in the conference behind 9-0 Syracuse and 9-1 Virginia. The Eagles are 2-7 in conference and ahead of only 1-9 Virginia Tech in the standings.

Duke leads the series 16-2 against Boston College, including a 6-1 record in Chestnut Hill. The Blue Devils have won 7 straight in the series and 9 of the last 10. Duke won both meetings last year 62-61 at BC and 89-68 in Durham. This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams.

Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. Duke has losses to Kansas in Chicago, Arizona in Madison Square Garden, at Notre Dame, at Clemson and at Syracuse. The Blue Devils have won 6 of their last 7 games. Duke has key wins over Davidson, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, Vermont, Alabama at MSG, Michigan, UCLA in New York, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, at Miami, Florida State, at Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest 83-63 Tuesday night. The Blue Devils are 15-8 ATS and the total is 11-11 this season.

Duke is outscoring teams 82-67 this season. The Blue Devils are #18 in scoring nationally. Duke is shooting 47.2% from the field and 41.6% from 3 point range. The Blue Devils are #4 nationally in 3 point shooting. Duke is #41 in free throw shooting at 74% from the line. Blue Devil opponents are shooting 45.1% from the field and 30.6% from 3 point range. Duke is #38 nationally in three point defense. The Blue Devils average 35 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.6 rebounds per game. Duke averages 15.5 assists, 9.6 turnovers, 7 steals and 2.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 11.1 assists, 12.9 turnovers, 5.1 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Freshman forward Jabari Parker averages 18.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. He is projected to be a high lottery pick in the NBA draft. Forward Rodney Hood averages 16.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Guard Quinn Cook averages 12 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Guard Andre Dawkins averages 10 points and 1.5 rebounds per game. Guard Rasheed Sulaimon averages 9.1 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. Forward Amile Jefferson averages 6.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. Tyler Thornton, Matt Jones, and Josh Hairston will also get time in the rotation.

Boston College is coached by Steve Donahue. The Eagles have played a very difficult schedule so far with losses to Providence, Massachusetts, Toledo, Connecticut, Purdue, USC, Maryland, Auburn, VCU, Harvard, Clemson, Syracuse, at North Carolina, Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, and Wednesday at Virginia 77-67. BC has wins over Florida Atlantic, Washington, Sacred Heart, Philadelphia, and Virginia Tech twice. The Eagles have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games.  Boston College is 7-13 ATS and the total is 10-10 this season.

BC is being outscored 74-70 this season. The Eagles  are shooting 44.8% from the field and 34.4% from 3 point range. Boston College is 26th nationally in free throw shooting at 74.7%. Eagle opponents are shooting 46% from the field and 36.2% from 3 point range. BC averages 30.4 rebounds per game, and opponents average 29.3 per game. The Eagles average 12.9 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 3.9 steals and 3 blocks per game. Opponents average 11.8 assists, 9.4 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 2.8 blocks per game.

Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan averages 17.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. Forward Ryan Anderson averages 15.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Guard Joe Rahon averages 9.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Guard Lonnie Jackson averages 7.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Guard Alex Dragicevich averages 4.7 points and 1.7 rebounds per game. Eddie Odio, Garland Owens, Patrick Heckmann, Will Magarity, and Dennis Clifford will also get significant minutes in the rotation. No Eagle player averages more than one steal or block per game. Guard Darryl Hicks is out for the season with a knee injury.

Duke is 6-0 ATS overall, and in ACC games, 5-0 after a win and a cover, 4-1 against teams with losing records, 5-2 in Saturday games and on the road. The under is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Boston College is 4-1 ATS after a straight up loss, overall, and against ACC teams, 4-9 against teams with winning records, 1-4 at home, and against teams with losing road records. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games in this series. The Eagles are 5-2 against the Blue Devils in the last 7 in Chestnut Hill.

If Duke wanted to, they could win this game by 20 points. However, the Blue Devils play rival North Carolina on Wednesday and I think they overlook a bad Eagles team. Duke wins but it will be closer than people think.

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