CFB Week 6 Picks: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at N.C. State Wolfpack

Terean Folston is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play this week against N.C. State.
Terean Folston is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play this week against N.C. State.

Notre Dame-NC State
Time: NOON ET
Spread: NCST -2.5
Total: 63.5

Betting odds c/o 5dimes

The 2-3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish got back on track last week with a 50-33 win over Syracuse after having dropped two straight (to Michigan State and Duke) coming into Week 5.

The Irish find themselves underdogs this week, though, as they travel to face N.C. State in a game the Wolfpack is 2.5 point favorites in. The over/under is set high at 63.5 for what should be a fun, high-scoring affair to be televised on ABC at 11 AM (CST).

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Notre Dame has had no trouble scoring this year. But defense has been a problem. The Irish rank No 15 in the NCAA in passing yardage and score 39.0 points per game (good for No. 33), but Notre Dame is allowing 33.4 points per game and even the Orange managed that tally against them last week. Excluding the Week 2 win over lowly Nevada, Notre Dame has allowed at least four touchdowns every week. Again, this high over/under is purely a reflection of a poor Irish defense.

Offensively, though, there is plenty to like with Notre Dame. DeShone Kizer has already thrown for over 1,500 yards at a 62.9 percent clip. He has 14 TDs with just four interceptions and a 175.4 passer rating to boot. The Irish’s top-four receivers all have 200 yards or more on the season, and Equanimeous St. Brown has already racked up 541 yards with six of Notre Dame’s 14 receiving TDs this season.

Kizer has done his job rushing the ball too, ranking No. 2 on the team in rushing yardage with 187 on the year. Josh Adams has been solid as the No. 1 back with 340 yards and a 5.1 yard per carry average. The Irish move the ball well: Notre Dame averages 4.4 yards per carry and has had 11 rushing TDs—with six of them coming from Kizer. He is one of the best college football quarterbacks, and Notre Dame can score—it is just a matter of whether they can stop teams, and this week’s opponent in N.C. State is just another team that can fully exploit Notre Dame on that side of the football field.

N.C. State is 3-1 and sitting at second-place in the ACC after just one conference game of course. The Wolfpack triumphed over Wake Forest 33-16 last week as they jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead and never looked back. Quarterback Ryan Finley threw for 300 yards on 23 of 36 passing with three TDs and no interceptions, while running back Matthew Dayes racked up 125 yards on 24 carries, including a TD run. Stephen Louis was the No. 1 receiving option with 102 yards on just four catches, featuring a long-catch of 41-yards.

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The fact that the Wolfpack generated 527 yards of total offense should put a scare into Notre Dame, and the Wolfpack is 3-0 at home this year with its victories coming over William and Mary in Week 1, Old Dominion and Wake Forest.

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ATS TRENDS

Notre Dame
  • Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games in October.
  • Fighting Irish are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
North Carolina State
  • Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
  • Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Wolfpack are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
  • Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

OU TRENDS

Notre Dame
  • Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 road games.
  • Over is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 non-conference games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games on grass.
  • Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 7-2 in Fighting Irish last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 16-5 in Fighting Irish last 21 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 8-3 in Fighting Irish last 11 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 21-9 in Fighting Irish last 30 vs. ACC.
  • Under is 17-8 in Fighting Irish last 25 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 27-13 in Fighting Irish last 40 games following a straight up win.
North Carolina State
  • Over is 6-0-1 in Wolfpack last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Wolfpack last 5 non-conference games.
  • Over is 5-0-1 in Wolfpack last 6 home games.
  • Over is 6-0-1 in Wolfpack last 7 games on grass.
  • Over is 6-1 in Wolfpack last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Wolfpack last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-3 in Wolfpack last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.

Trends c/o Covers.com

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