The not entirely surprising news flew around the internet this morning that Kurt Warner could be in his last days as an NFL quarterback. The always mysterious ‘anonymous sources close to the situation’ say that Warner’s next loss could be his last. That makes sense in many way given that he is now 38 years old, and he had a concussion earlier this year. The way he played today, though, it’s pretty clear that he plans to go out the right way. Warner was absolutely brilliant today – about as good as a quarterback can be. He was 29 of 33 for 379 yards and five touchdowns. Brilliant. Warner had a good shot at a sixth touchdown as well at the end of regulation. He marched 60+ yards down the field effortlessly, but stopped on first down with 14 seconds left to give Neil Rackers a shot at an easy winning field goal – one that he uncharacteristically missed. The Green Bay defense had strengthened up and found itself in the second half of the season, but Warner just shredded it all day today. A lot of people made the mistake of counting out Warner and the Cardinals last year. Despite getting burned by that, people overwhelmingly made the same mistake today. I’m still not convinced by any means that they have what it takes to win the NFC two years in a row, but I wouldn’t rule them out. No matter what, every remaining NFC game will be played in a climate controlled building, and that’s just what the Cards need. Their defense was a real problem today, but their offense was more than up to the task of making up for that. The Saints have real defensive woes as well, and seem vulnerable on both sides of the ball. Minnesota and Dallas both play good defense on average, but both can have rough days from time to time. No matter what, the rest of the NFC playoffs are going to be brilliant. That should more than make up for an AFC schedule that is frankly a bit boring in my eyes (boring become it seems almost predetermined, and because it seems hard to imagine exciting games next weekend).
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I keep reading all over the internet about how Mark Sanchez was masterful, brilliant, and so on today. He was good, but I’m just not buying all the accolades. What he was was a young quarterback who was masterfully protected by his offensive coordinator. Just look at the stats – he threw only 15 passes. He completed 12 of those 15 passes, but it’s not that hard for a QB to have the time to be that accurate when a team establishes the run as effectively as the Jets did, and runs so relentlessly. The Bengals couldn’t consistently pressure Sanchez without being punished by Shonn Greene. The star here was Brian Scottenheimer, not Mark Sanchez. It’s typical of the Jets that the coordinator had one of his best days in the job in what is quite likely his second last game with the team.
1. Only eight more months until college football season starts. Am I the only one who has started the countdown?
2. I still don’t like Nick Saban at all, but what he has accomplished is truly incredible. In seven years he has two national championships at two schools, and he mixed in a disastrous stint in the NFL in the middle of that.Saban took over a team that was just 7-6 three years ago, and has now had two amazing years in a row. As much as I hate to admit it the guy is solidly the best coach in the country. He also hurts the argument that people use in favor of guys like my beloved program’s Rich Rodriguez – that they need a couple of years to get their systems in place and let their recruits take over the program. Saban didn’t need that time.
The NFC only has some seeding issues to determine because the teams to make the playoffs are all set. The AFC on the other hand is as crazy as it has been in years. The four division winners are set except for some minor seeding questions, but the wild card is totally wide open. As you get ready to watch and bet on the games today here’s a cheat sheet to try to clarify the picture a bit.
Baltimore – Simply, they are in if the win at Oakland in the late afternoon game. If they don’t win that game then they need to wait for the rest of the teams to eliminate themselves in order to make it.
N.Y. Jets – Like Baltimore, the Jets are in if they win. If they lose they also need to sit back and hope the rest of the teams knock themselves out. They are at home to the Bengals, and Cincinnati will likely be resting players for the playoffs, so for the second straight week the Jets could benefit from their scheduling. If any team can mess this up, though, it’s the Jets.
Denver – If the Broncos had won one of their last three games then they wouldn’t be in the mess that they are in. Now they need a bunch of help, though they do have the most chances of any team that doesn’t control their own destiny. They play at home against the Chiefs. They should be able to win that one, but they don’t have to – though it would obviously be easier if they did. If they win then they need either Baltimore or the Jets to lose or tie and either Pittsburgh to lose or Houston to win. If both the Ravens and Jets lose then the Broncos are in with a win. If the Broncos lose then they could still get in four different scenarios which all include a Pittsburgh loss. In addition to that they would need loss by Baltimore, Houston, and Jacksonville or the Jets, or from Baltimore, the Jets, and Jacksonville, or from Houston, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Finally, the Broncos have an unlikely longshot possibility – they could get in win or lose if Pittsburgh wins but Baltimore, Miami, the Jets, Jacksonville, and Houston all lose. Confused yet?
Pittsburgh – The Steelers are eliminated if the lose at Miami. If they win that game then they need losses from either the Jets and Baltimore as well as Denver, or from the Jets or Ravens and Houston.
Houston – The Texans need to win against the Pats at home. That shouldn’t be to tough if, as expected, the Pats take it easy with their starters. If they win then they either need losses from both the Jets and Ravens, or from one of the two and the Broncos.
Jacksonville – The Jags are one of two 7-8 teams that are still alive. The obviously need to beat the Browns in Cleveland. If they do that then they still need a lot of help. If Baltimore and the Jets both lose then they also need losses from Denver and Pittsburgh, or Houston and Pittsburgh, or Denver and Houston. If just one of the Jets or Ravens loses then they need Denver, Houston and Pittsburgh all to lose. In other words, if you are a Jacksonville fan don’t plan your playoff trip just yet.
Miami – The Dolphins can get into the playoffs in one very unlikely scenario – if they win (which means Pittsburgh loses), and the Jets, Ravens, Texans, and Jaguars all lose. They don’t exactly control their own destiny.
I love the craziness of kickers in the NFL. A couple of weeks ago Shaun Suisham was the bum in Washington when he missed a kick that would have let the Redskins beat the Saints. He was cut immediately after the game. This week Dallas’ Nick Folk missed a 24 yard field goal that would have given the Cowboys an easy win, and instead forced them to sweat the end of the game. Folk was cut today as a result of that kick and his general habit of missing kicks. Ironically, Folk’s issues came against the Saints as well – at this rate no kicker is going to want to play against the Saints. The best part of this drama – the Cowboys have chosen to replace Folk with none other than Suisham. One man’s garbage…
Like many sports fans, I have spent a lot of time last night and today thinking and reading about Chris Henry. Strange story. Awful Story. Senseless story. By all reports the guy was finally getting his life in order, and we have seen before that he is one heck of a player when his mind is on the game, so it seems like a horrible waste for things to have turned out like they have. The details will likely come out and perhaps make more sense of what now seems exceptionally odd, but ultimately it doesn’t really matter. The thing to focus on here is that 26 years old is way too young for anyone to go regardless of the problems they have had or caused.
Here’s what’s crossing my mind as I get ready for a day of football action:
1. The Saints are favored by 10.5 in Atlanta. Can you imagine how crazy you would have thought I was if I had told you that that was going to be the spread back in July. Crazy, crazy stat – In the last eight years every team in the NFC South has gone from last one year to first the next – including New Orleans this year.
Something is very rotten in Pittsburgh. There is really no way to explain how the Steelers managed to lose to the Browns last night. The stats are just staggering. They lost to a team that has a quarterback who completed six of 19 passes for 90 yards. The Browns’ leading rusher was Josh Cribbs – a wide receiver. Cribbs only had 87 yards, but he outgained the entire Steelers team by 12 yards. Big Ben was sacked eight times. This was as bad as a legitimate team can possibly play. The offensive line was offensive, the defense didn’t care, receivers were quitting on routes – absolutely nothing went well. The defending Super Bowl champs have now dropped five in a row, and you really have to wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to do about this, and maybe even f he is going to survive it. Injuries – Troy Polamalu chief among them – are a big part of the story, but that’s not an excuse. It could be an excuse for not winning the division, but it’s not an excuse for a five game slide and a loss to the freaking Browns. Now they have nine days to sit and stew in their own misery before their next game. It will be very interesting to watch what goes on in Pittsburgh over the next few weeks.
It’s too early to fully decide for now, but I think it’s safe to say that Richard Jefferson in San Antonio isn’t working as well it seemed like it would. He has seen the same basic amount of playing time that he has in the past, but his production has dropped by seven points from last year, and is his lowest since he was a rookie in 2001. Three of the last four years he has averaged about 20 points or more per game. This year he has only topped 20 points three times. The Spurs have limped out of the gate at just 10-9 after a win last night, and they have been mostly lousy on the road and against good competition. It doesn’t really matter how he does now as long as the team makes the playoffs, but clearly the chemistry isn’t working yet.
1. I don’t think that we should read too much into how the Saints won today. It wasn’t pretty, and it probably shouldn’t have happened, but there was a lot to take from that. First, Washington was the best passing defense in the league coming into the game but the Saints managed 419 passing yards against them, and they made the winning TD look as easy as it can possibly look. Next, the Redskins were at home and were fired up by trying to save their season and all that so it made sense that they were stout. Finally, the Saints were missing three cornerbacks , so I’m not concerned by their ability to stop Jason Campbell. The Saints almost lost to a bad team, but they found a way to get the win in the end, and that’s all that matters.
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