Purdue Boilermakers at #24 Wisconsin Badgers
Camp Randall Stadium – Madison, Wisconsin
Saturday, September 21, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Opening Line: Wisconsin -22 1/2
Current Line: Wisconsin -24
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -2400 / Purdue +1375
Current Money Line: Wisconsin -2200 / Purdue +1315
The 2-1 Wisconsin Badgers and 1-2 Purdue Boilermakers open Big Ten play against each other Saturday in Madison. The #24 ranked Badgers lead the series against the Boilermakers 43-29-8, including 24-12-5 in Madison. Wisconsin has won 7 straight games in the series, including 38-14 in West Lafayette last season.
Purdue, coached by Darrell Hazell, has losses at Cincinnati 42-7 and last week at home against Notre Dame 31-24. The lone win came at home over Indiana State 20-14. Purdue is 1-2 ATS and the total is also 1-2 this season. The Boilermakers were 17 point underdogs against Notre Dame and the total was 47. Purdue jumped out to a 10-0 lead early. The Fighting Irish kicked a field goal before halftime to make it 10-3 going into the locker room.
Notre Dame scored early in the third to tie it up at 10, but Purdue answered 4 minutes with a touchdown of their own to regain the lead 17-10, In the fourth, The Irish scored 3 touchdowns in the first four minutes of the quarter to take a 31-17 lead. The Boilermakers would score with just over 8 minutes to go to make it 31-24. Notre Dame would fumble on their next possession, and Purdue recovered at the Irish 41. However, after a personal foul penalty on first down, Purdue went 3 and out and had to punt. Notre Dame took over with 7:22 left and the Boilermakers would never get possession again.
The Boilermakers had just 294 total yards including a paltry 38 rushing yards. Notre Dame had 400 total yards including 309 passing yards. Each team had one turnover, but Purdue’s was returned for a pick six as part of the 21-0 scoring run by the Irish in the fourth.
Purdue is being outscored 29-17 this season. The Boilermakers are averaging 268 total yards per game including 189 rushing yards and 79 rushing yards. The Boilermakers are 95th or worse nationally in scoring, total, passing, and rushing offense. On defense, Purdue is allowing 373 yards per game on defense, including 256.3 passing yards. Purdue is even on turnovers with 5 giveaways. The Boilermakers are 19/50 on third down conversions. Purdue has forced 7 sacks this season and allowed 3. The Boilermakers are averaging 49 penalty yards per game. Purdue is 7/11 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Quarterback Rob Henry has completed 58.6% of his passes for 567 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he also has a rushing touchdown. Running back Akeem Hunt has 41 carries for 125 yards along with 12 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. Hunt also has a kick return for a touchdown. Dalyn Dawkins has 18 carries for 69 yards, along with 4 catches for 52 yards. Shane Mikesky has 6 catches for 99 yards. B.J. Knauf has 6 catches, 76 yards and a touchdown, along with 9 carries for 49 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Justin Sinz has 9 catches, 64 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Gabe Holmes is out for the season with a broken wrist.
Wisconsin started off the season with shutouts at home over Massachusetts 45-0 and Tennessee Tech 48-0. Last week, Wisconsin traveled to Arizona State and lost 32-30 in controversial fashion. The Badgers are 3-0 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. Wisconsin was a 7 point underdog at Arizona State and the total was 55.
The Sun Devils kicked a field goal in the first quarter to take a 3-0 lead. The Badgers responded with two touchdowns within a minute to begin the second quarter. ASU would score 10 points before halftime to make it 14-13 Badgers at halftime. Wisconsin scored on an 80 yard touchdown run from Melvin Gordon just seconds into the third quarter to go up 21-13. ASU running back Marion Grice scored the second of four rushing touchdowns late in the third to make it 21-19 but the Sun Devils missed the extra point. Wisconsin kicked a field goal early in the fourth to go up 24-19. Grice ran for two more touchdowns to put the Sun Devils up 32-24, but ASU missed another extra point. Wisconsin scored with 3:53 left on a one yard touchdown run from Gordon. The Badgers failed on the two point conversion try.
The last four minutes of the game included a wild finish. After scoring, Wisconsin kicked off deep and ASU drove to midfield before having to punt. The Badgers took over at their 17 with no timeouts and just 1:36 left. Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave drove the Badgers down to the ASU 13. He ran up the middle to set up the potential game winning field goal with 18 seconds left. However, he ran into one of his linemen, and awkwardly put the ball on the ground. ASU defenders quickly jumped on the ball, but the referees said it was a dead ball. The clock was still running and by the time the refs sorted out the pile, there was less than 3 seconds left. Big Ten rules say you can’t spike the ball with under 3 seconds left, so time ran out.
Wisconsin had 441 total yards including 231 rushing yards and 15 first downs. Arizona St had 468 total yards with 352 passing, and 32 first downs. ASU had 2 turnovers and Wisconsin had one.
Wisconsin is outscoring teams 41-10.7 this season. The Badgers are averaging 548.3 yards per game including 337 rushing yards. The Badgers are #5 rushing nationally and #13 in total offense. On defense, Wisconsin is allowing 264.3 yards per game, including 86.7 rushing yards. The Badgers are 26th or better nationally in all defensive categories. The Badgers are +3 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Wisconsin is 24/43 on third and fourth down conversions. The Badgers are averaging 50.7 penalty yards per game. Wisconsin is 10/13 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.
Stave has completed 63.2% of his passes for 603 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and he has a rushing touchdown as well. Gordon has 37 carries, 477 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running back James White has 45 carries, 297 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 66 yards. Corey Clement has 31 carries, 251 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Jared Abbrederis has 16 catches, 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jacob Pedersen has 8 catches, 101 yards and a touchdown.
Purdue is 5-2 ATS in September, 4-9 overall, 7-20-2 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 1-4 against teams with winning home records, against teams with winning records, in road games, and on fieldturf, and 0-4 after a cover. The under is 5-2 in this series recently.
Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS after allowing 450 total yards or more, 4-1 overall, and on fieldturf, 6-2 against teams with losing records, 19-7 against teams with losing road records, 16-6-1 at home, 15-6 after a cover, and 5-2 after allowing 280 passing yards or more. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in this series recently. The Badgers are 7-0 ATS against the Boilermakers recently, including 4-1 in Madison.
Purdue has struggled on offense so far, and could struggle to keep up with a Wisconsin team that should be angry after an emotional, controversial loss at Arizona State. The Boilermakers showed heart in a near upset of Notre Dame, but they barely beat an Indiana State team that Indiana crushed by 38 points. Wisconsin should roll in this game, but I see Purdue hanging around with their defense and scoring late to get the back door cover.
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